O’Brien, the Classic, Turf to Dirt, and Last Race Prior to Retirement

[Molesap]

This angle has relevance in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic as Aidan O’Brien is bringing in City of Troy for his first and final start on dirt before he heads off to the breeding shed. I have heard a number of pundits mention that this move is not something O’Brien typically does, but I would argue this move is fairly common with O’Brien but it is just that he has not done it in seven years. Between 2000 and 2017, he started ten turf horses in the Classic where it was their final race.

O’Brien almost pulled off the turf to dirt move in 2000 but finished a neck short with Giant’s Causeway against Tiznow. That was Giant Causeway’s first try on dirt and last race overall as it was for Declaration of War when he ran 3rd in the Classic in 2013. Henrythenavigator also finished second in Breeders’ Cup Classic in his last start, but that was run over the synthetic surface at SA, so I am going to exclude him from analysis. I did leave George Washington in the analysis because he was retired after finishing 6th in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic but returned to racing the second half of 2007 due to fertility issues. Unfortunately, he broke down in the Classic that year and was humanely destroyed. I used the 2006 data for that entry.

Overall O’Brien is 17-0-2-1 in the Classic and I just mentioned his three horses that finished in the money. It seems like he runs horses in the Classic often enough that seem to be an afterthought at the end of their careers to increase the stud value if they can win or run competitively on dirt. I think one potential difference this year is that City of Troy has been pointed to this race for a long time, so it does not seem to be an afterthought at the end of season before retirement as some of his other starters appeared to be. Other horses that he ran in the Classic as their first start on dirt and last race of their career have been the great Galileo (6th), who was undefeated until he was beaten by Fantastic Light in the Irish Champion Stakes in his penultimate race, followed by his run in the Classic before retirement. Add George Washington (6th), Churchill (7th), Gleneagles (8th), Duke of Marmalade (9th), Black Minnaloushe (10th), Oratorio (11th), and George Washington (again - DNF this time) as O’Brien charges making their last start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I may have missed someone, but by my recollection, O’Brien is 9-0-1-1 with that move. This one seems different, and I am withholding judgment until closer to the race, but history tells me to wade in with caution, especially as a potential short priced favorite as City of Troy is getting bet fairly hard in the antepost market overseas as is 15/8 in many books as I write this.

Noting that there are numerous factors that help determine whether or not a horse can make the transition from turf to dirt that cannot be easily quantified, here is an analysis of TG data on the nine Classic starters from the O’Brien barn that retired after that race. Using the common definitions of Top, Pair, Off, and X for effort distribution (see below), of the nine O’Brien Breeders’ Cup Classic starters who retired after the race, it appears that O’Brien had the following: Top = 2 horses, Pair = 3 horses, Off = 2 horses, X = 2 horses. So, the performances have been all over the place in this relatively small sample size. What is interesting though is that if you focus on the time between starts, both tops and two of the pairs came from at least 42 days off. He did have one pair at 20 days and one off at 61 days. The three horses that were wheeled back after 14 days accounted for both of the X performances and one of the off performances. It seems at least in this sample, that having more time off makes it more likely that horses would run their races. In case you are wondering, City of Troy will be coming in off a 73 day layoff for the Classic.

Horse, Finish Position, Days Off Prior to Classic, Effort Distribution
Giant\'s Causeway, 2, 42, Top
Declaration of War, 3, 73, Top
Galileo, 6, 49, Pair
Black Minnaloushe, 10, 67, Pair
Duke of Marmalade, 9, 20, Pair
George Washington, 6, 61, Off
Oratorio, 11, 14, Off
Gleneagles, 8, 14, X
Churchill, 7, 14, X

Effort Distribution Definitions
Top: >1 faster than previous top
Pair: within 1 point of previous top
Off: >1 and <+4 worse than previous top
X: More than 4 points worse than previous top

[Fairmount1]

My kind of post with the stats, research, and time involved here.  I appreciate the work put in here.  

I\'m fascinated by the Classic this year from an interest and viewing perspective.  City of Troy and the Japanese make for a lot of question marks.  City of Troy with the dirt as a question mark.  Yes, I saw his work on (fill in the correct name for poly/Synth/Etc).  Hype isn\'t enough for me to put my money down on a horse when I have no idea how he will even perform on dirt.  I was fooled when Johannesburg won the Juvenile at Belmont more than 20 years ago into believing O\'Brien would have great success on dirt here at times.  As you point out, it has largely been a failure although their performances have been competitive related to their own figures on 5 of 9 attempts in your list (that fit a similar profile to City of Troy).    

The Japanese (with Forever Young along with the two that competed last year including last year\'s place finisher in the Classic who will probably be the longest price) make for some difficult decisions.  

So, from a gambling perspective, I don\'t have a strong opinion here and will likely pass.  But I will be tuned in and gambling on many of the other races.  And with the Classic 5 races prior to the finish, it should not be too tough for me to just watch and enjoy.

[Molesap]

Part of the problem is that with the new race order, the Classic sits smack dab in the middle of the nine Breeders\' Cup races on Saturday. There are three stakes prior to the start of the BC program in race 4.

Race 1-The Sunrise
Race 2-Bayakoa Stakes
Race 3-Goldikova Stakes
Race 4-Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile  
Race 5-Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Race 6-Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Race 7-Breeders’ Cup Turf
Race 8-Breeders’ Cup Classic
Race 9-Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Race 10-Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Race 11-Breeders’ Cup Mile
Race 12-Breeders’ Cup Sprint


There are three P5 sequences on Saturday - the traditonal early P5 that starts in race 1, one that ends with the Classic (races 4-8) and one that starts with the Classic (races 8-12). In those terms, it is a key race for P5 bettors. If you are going to hit one of the BC only P5\'s, you need to figure out the Classic, get lucky, or go pretty deep. It is a fascinating race and assuming the they are able to make it to the gate, it seems like Fierceness, City of Troy, and Forever Young will vie for favoritsm.

[jbelfior]

You\'ll have to go back to 2008 (Ravens Pass--John Gosden...on synthetic) to find a 3-year-old classic winner not trained by Bob Baffert. Lukas came close in 2013.


Good Luck,
Joe B.