Somebody wanna do some Archives homework?

[TGJB]

Horses that ran an off race or X in the Derby and came back in the Preakness. Top, pair etc.

[kencbs]

Here\'s mine.

Years - 1995-2023 excluding 2020.  Note: I included the 2 fillies who ran Oaks/Preakness - Rachel Alexandra, Secret Oath.

I used the standards from previous Derby seminars of -
Top - more than 1 pt. faster than previous top
Pair - within 1 pt. either way of the previous top
Off - 1-4 pts. worse than top
X - more than 4 pts. worse than top

Top in Derby:
------------
Preakness:
Top   1    3.8%
Pair  7   26.9%
Off  12   46.2%
X     6   23.1%

Pair in Derby:
-------------
Preakness:
Top   9   22.0%
Pair 12   29.3%
Off  14   34.1%
X     6   14.6%

Off in Derby:
------------
Preakness:
Top   4   15.4%
Pair  6   23.1%
Off  11   42.3%
X     5   19.2%

X in Derby:
----------
Top   2    6.1%
Pair  7   21.2%
Off   9   27.3%
X    15   45.4%

Total of all who ran in both:
----------------------------
Preakness:
Top  16   12.7%
Pair 32   25.4%
Off  46   36.5%
X    32   25.4%

Lukas
_____
Derby 3 top, Preakness 2 pair, 1 top
Derby 6 pair, Preakness 2 top, 2 pair, 2 off
Derby 5 off, Preakness 1 pair, 2 off, 2 X
Derby 4 X, Preakness 1 top, 1 pair, 2 X

The X-pair is closest to Just Steel - in 2009, Flying Private ran a top of 2 in March, a small off in the Ark. Derby, a 15-pt. X in the Derby, and then a return to top in the Preakness, finishing a good 4th to Rachel A.

Lukas also won the Preakness in 2013 with Oxbow off a 4.25 X in the Derby, but a 2.25 new top in the Preakness.

The other 2 Derby X\'s:
High Yield 2000 - 3 - 5 - 11.5 Derby - 8.25 Preak.
Gone Wild 2005 - 4 - 15.75 - 10.5 - 15.5 Derby - 17.25 Preak.

I can also go back 1 year to 1994, when Tabasco Cat paired in the Derby and then ran a 3.5 new top to win the Preakness.

McPeek
------
He has only 1 example, and it\'s similar to Mystik Dan -
Harlan\'s Holiday 2002 ran 3 pts. off his top in the Derby (same as Mystik Dan), and then ran 1 point better in the Preakness than the Derby.

Baffert
_______
We all remember last year when he couldn\'t run in the Derby, but National Treasure matched his 3-yr old top of 4 in the Preakness (!.25 slower than his 2-yr old top), but still won because of a rail trip and a weak field.

I found 1 other where he skipped the Derby and ran in the Preakness - Governor Charlie ran a top in late March, but then a 9.5 X in the Preakness.  I will say I don\'t believe he was anywhere nearly as highly regarded as Muth.  His top was in the Sunland Derby - where Baffert runs his second-stringers.

Ken

[shanahan]

Thanks you for doing this.  A few comments from the last 10 Preakness contests since 2014:

Since 2017, 4 winners did not run in the Derby.

Only National Treasure ran a worse # than 2 yo top

I don\'t remember why War of Will nor Cloud Computing could make such a jump up for this race, but if memory serves this board loved Cloud Computing?

I will predict that Mr. Baffert is going to make a statement at the Preakness to Churchill Downs.  Who is he sending?  And how many?

[Silver Charm]

What kid of \"Statement\" will Baffeet be making? They just had record handle. One of the most exciting finishes in history. A full house for 2 days with Celebs all over town. It\'s a private corporation they can do what they want. Just like the PGA Tour does with LIV Golfers.

Baffert may win because he has the best horse but dont go telling my friend Kenny McPeek there is an asterisk on his Derby Winning Trophy. Bafferts horses could have THEY his Owners decided not to run with the criteria CD set out.

Regarding the primary subject matter Point Given, Louis Quatoreze (rough trip) and Oxbow are 3 examples of horses who X\'d and were caught in the speed duel or hot pace who won the Preakness. Just Steel was inexplicably closer to the pace than usual. He had some # power. Maybe he is a stealth use.

[shanahan]

You misinterpret - I am a huge McPeek fan.  Stood next to him at Pimlinco when Sirava won.   Most here in Hot Springs are big fans of his.  

My point was that Baffert ships East to win, and wants to show CD he had better horses that would have won the Derby.  That remains to be seen, of course.

You trashed me years ago for reason I never understood. I\'d \"Let It Ride\"...  Grow up.  We have common friends.

[Flighted Iron]

Snow chief

[Silver Charm]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You misinterpret - I am a huge McPeek fan.  Stood
> next to him at Pimlinco when Sirava won.   Most
> here in Hot Springs are big fans of his.  
>
> My point was that Baffert ships East to win, and
> wants to show CD he had better horses that would
> have won the Derby.  That remains to be seen, of
> course.
>
> You trashed me years ago for reason I never
> understood. I\'d \"Let It Ride\"...  Grow up.  We
> have common friends.


Grow up? I will let it slide.

Sarava won the Belmont. Edgar Prado rode and New Phoenix Stables was the Owner. Are you sure you know where you are or were at any given point in time of the day?

I just finished a book called \"The Match\". In there they detail how Amateurs back in the day were equal to the Pros in golf. The #1 Amateur in the World at the time Frank Stranahan was playing a Practice Round at Augusta National and they clearly had a Policy (among many) don\'t play 2 balls a hole on the course. Stranahan didn\'t think the rules applied to him. Bobby Jones and Chairman Cliff Robert\'s sent Security out to the course and had Stranahan physically removed from the grounds. It\'s a Private Club. Indian Creek did the same thing with Michael Jordan when he parked his Mercedes in the front lawn with Jam Box blasting and Cigars lite. Peacefully he was shown the door.

There are only TWO horses running back from the Derby on two weeks rest. And one of them almost feels obligated. There is your Statement. Will racing listen? Probably not....

[statuette]

Catching freedom will be the third

[TGJB]

Among many others. I think there were two years where horses that Xd in the Derby ran 1-2.

The real joker would be if Fierceness enters.

[Fairmount1]

Fierceness is headed to the Travers prep aka \"the Belmont Stakes\" this year (1 1/4 at Sar).  Todd\'s Churchill record stands at 18-1-1-0.  Guessing he hasn\'t enjoyed sipping the Bourbon in and around Louisville this year.  

On another trainer front, Michael Trombetta has started 7 horses at Pimlico so far.  Record:  7-0-0-0

Off odds of:  3-1, 7-2, 4-1, 13-1, 5-2, 9-2, 5-2.  


On Friday alone, he has horses in the 4th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 13th and 14th.  Might be something to pay attention to that day and if he has any entered for Saturday (which we will learn tomorrow).

EDIT/ADDITIONAL NOTE:  Over the past month, Trombetta is 1 for 31 across all tracks.  Wowza.

[kencbs]

Also Hansel, Pine Bluff, Tank\'s Prospect

[Fairmount1]

Trombetta in Races 1, 4, 9 on Sat.

Last year he had 2 seconds and 1 third over the 2 days if interested.  Will be interesting to see if he can be tossed altogether as a few of his look like ones to USE at least vertically.  Or if one of his fires early and you have to use him.  

Baffert ships Mirahmadi cross country for a $54k Allowance race (race 3) after not racing since Del Mar Futurity in Sept.  Owners have Imagination in the Preakness.  Anyone want to explain that one to me.  And why this spot and not the Sir Barton?

No Ron Moquett this year?  No Arabian Race this year (which is fine by me)?  Jeff Runco and Todd Beattie spice things up by shipping horses into Old Hilltop. Joe Sharp one horse on the weekend.  That horse ran 1 mile with a Sizzling pace and faded and now cutting back. Only horse he has in Maryland this year was that one start and now back on Saturday.  Look out.    

Two very interesting cards if you like betting on larger, competitive fields.  Rain may ruin some turf races Saturday but hopefully Friday the turf races all go?  

Some folks getting a little frisky in these parts this week.  Good to see except I\'ll say I\'ve been told to \"KNOCK IT OFF\" by the Host for far less and had messages deleted for far less LOLOLOL.  

For those that say they won\'t post any longer, it is disappointing as the number of excellent posts has dwindled the past several years.  It is True people have migrated to the Social platform for pithy, one line hot takes and to post Red Board Scores.  But I\'ve assumed solid, well reasoned writing is still worth reading on the horse racing front.  

PREAKNESS.  I\'ll be in the Hood Saturday to see it in person.  Last year, after the races, we were stuck in a parking spot b/c of folks watching Bruno Mars so I had to wander into the back of a home to buy $10 beers from a cooler full of beers I never even heard of . . . . luckily they had 2 Heinkens I could tolerate in the bottom of no interest to the party goers at the house LOLOL.  

For those that read but I\'ve lost touch with a bit, I hope all of you are doing well and hope to connect soon.

LFG.

[Silver Charm]

Fluffy Socks goes in the Gallorette. She won her 1st Career Start on this course on Preakness Day in a bog. Her wins have been far and few between because she has been keeping Top Company. Tampa race was too far. Jenny Wiley way too tough. Picks up Irad.

Chad Brown who has won this race a few times will looking to make another \"statement\" to Pimlico the Gallorette on Preakness Day goes thru him.

[TGJB]

That was a really good post, and I only had to make one edit.

Yeah, we need some Richiebee, or his heir. And yeah, I was close to taking down the string.

[johnnym]

Rain in the forecast
Obviously moves M.D up?