Improvement from 2YO to 3YO

[jwbcardinals]

Having listened to the seminar (which is great every year), one aspect which I look for is the improvement from 2YO to 3YO.  There is one horse which I would typically discount, but I am trying to ensure I don\'t have a blind-spot.  The question is about the expected improvement in their 3YO top.

Without sharing proprietary numbers, looking at Epic Ride, his second start was on Jan 5th.  Presumedly if he had run 6 days prior it would be classified as a 2YO race.  

If that was a 2YO race...he would have only a 3 point new top as a 3YO, and maybe some more room for improvement.  He just made a 4 point jump to a new top, which makes him amongst the top third speed figures in the race.  Bounce risk sure, but certainly faster than many that will have significantly lower odds!

He scratched in and will have a terrible post, but I am just trying to keep myself from quickly dismissing him.  At 62-1 is he a bomb that can inflate the exotics, or am I trying to be too creative?

[shanahan]

Too creative.  There is ONE question to answer:

Fierceness has bounced after his tops.  The very, very limited sample says he does again.  Chad is moving up last 90 days (breaking news, I know).  

But you have a runner that has produced a pretty incredible figure 3 straight times.  I think Saturday is the day.  And a BIG day for his trainer.  I think I\'m treading on a thin line of product exposure, so I leave it at that.  Yes, a few favs are no brainers, but I see both days with plenty of possibilities!

Fairmount - how\'s the weather?  Never heard if MJ is coming to the bash.  In Hot Springs we are lucking out w/ the weather and have a few owners/trainers in the tent.

[HP]

All the negatives aside, and I\'d like to believe some of them, I hear Fierceness is not working out like a horse that is going to bounce out of the money LOL?  If anybody knows better about the workouts please say so.  

HP

[toppled]

I think the fact that Epic Ride\'s last race was his 1st on dirt makes it difficult to determine whether the forward move is due to development or the surface switch.  

Personally, I don\'t consider the synthetic numbers on a horse who is now running on dirt, since he could be a totally different horse on dirt than on synthetic.

[johnnym]

That is my take as well.
Is Dirt his preferred surface?
Blame offspring run 2 pts faster on dirt than synth, his babies develop quite a bit from 2-3 as well.

GL