Turfway JR Steaks card 3/23/24

[toppled]

Every year I wait for this day & usually post my picks. It\'s one of my favorite race cards of the year. Last year I was slow early but picked things up late to have another successful JR Steaks day at Turfway, finishing the day with 8/1 Apriati. Here\'s my look at this year\'s card:

1st Race:
1) #11 Couperin (15/1): Ran a poor 11th in debut, but a few things have changed.  The horse is going from a sprint to a route, trainer Thomas hits 23% going sprint to route with 2nd time starting maidens, Blinkers on, and a huge jockey change from 7 lb. bug Sara Hess who has a career win % of less than 5% to California veteran jockey Umberto Rispoli.  Upset call.
2) #6 Zverev (6/1) Trainer DeVaux is very good (3/11) with first time synthetic runners coming off turf races.
Strictly off the sheet numbers #3 Tiz Wicked Strong is the best.  Edit #4 SCRATCHED

2nd Race: Pass, too many first time starters with no breeding or trainer angles that anyone stands out.

3rd Race:
1) #3 Scoobie Quando (5/1) Ran well here last year winning a minor stakes sprint, then finishing 2nd in the Battaglia before scratching from the JR Steaks to run (9th) in the Bluegrass instead.  Didn\'t run well in February sprint return.  Tepid call for trainer who is 0/5 in 2nd off a layoff races going sprint to route.
2)#12 Balantyne (20/1) Has been training here since arriving in the Thomas barn last October. Mysteriously shipped to Laurel to run on a sealed track in January. Trainer is 22% first time synthetic at Turfway.
Edit #6 SCRATCHED

4th Race BEST BET
1) If 1st time starter #6 Availability (12/1) can duplicate his dirt workouts on to the Turfway Tapeta, he\'ll trounce this field.  He has consistently been outworking the other horses at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington. Now if he doesn\'t handle the Tapeta, tab him for Keeneland.  
2) #12 Hoylake (15/1) Look for mass improvement from his debut where he was off slowly and outrun.  Trainer Harty hits 27% with horses running in synthetic sprints in their 2nd race-he\'s only 8% with 1st time starters in synthetic sprints-big improvement 1st to 2nd start in synthetic sprints.
Remaining contenders to complete exotics, 5-1-10

5th Race:
1) #6 Milieu (10/1) She\'s a perfect 1/1 on Tapeta, breaking her maiden at Gulfstream last December. Now returns to Tapeta where her siblings are 3/7 in routes and 14/29 in all their synthetic races.  Bred for synthetic.
2) #8 Hay Stack (7/2) Taking a shot she will run well on synthetic after 11 career races all on turf. Full sibling ran once on Tapeta, running 3rd in the Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream.
3) Edit: my 3rd & 4th horses scratched

6th Race:
1)Edit #14 did not get in, #5 gets a tepid vote in a wide open race.

7th Race:
#8 Vote No (5/1) Won the Turfway Preview sprint by 5.25 lengths, then faded when stretched back out to a mile.  Much better sprinter who is 2/2 in synthetic sprints.  
#7 Valentine Candy (2/1) Obviously the fastest horse in the race by a wide margin on the Thoro-Graphs, but has never been on synthetics, not even in a workout.  Trainer Asmussen is only 5% first time synthetic & only a little better 7% 1st synthetic at Turfway.  

8th Race: Pass

9th Race:
1) #9 Botanical (6/5) is a perfect 5/5 at Turfway, including a win in last year\'s Bourbonette Oaks.  The main problem is, her numbers aren\'t better than some of the others in here.
2) #2 Chop Chop (3/1) Was beaten by Botanical in her only Turfway defeat, but ran a half point faster in that race.  
I wouldn\'t bet this race with these picks since I don\'t like the races before & after this one.

10th Race: Pass

11th Race: Taking a flyer on #2 Winnable (10/1) off an impressive maiden score over the track.  There are too many fillies who haven\'t raced on synthetics to really have a good read on this race.

12th Race Jeff Ruby Steaks
1) #6 Northern Flame (5/1) Came within a quarter point of his 2 year old top last race in the Rebel at Oaklawn while finishing 3rd.  Trusting McPeek to have him ready for his synthetic debut where McPeek is 18% 1st time synthetic.  
2) #4 Noted (10/1) If he ever runs back to his Sapling as a 2YO he\'s dangerous, but really hasn\'t come close to that figure since and Pletcher hasn\'t won a race at Turfway in years.  
3) #8 Othello (15/1) Won the 1st two races of his career, then ran 6th in the Holy Bull, but Clement is 0/5 1st time synthetics in stakes races and rarely comes to Turfway
4) #10 Endlessly (5/2) He\'ll be the favorite off his El Camino Royal win at Golden Gate in his synthetic debut which got the highest Beyer in the field, but his Thoro-Graph number wasn\'t good enough to compete here unless none of the dirt horses can run on Tapeta.
Edit: #13 Circle P & #5 Agate Road SCRATCHED

13th Race
1) #1 Proud Divi (10/1) Last year I caught a Cherie DeVaux 2nd time starter in the JR Steaks card finale who paid 8/1.  I\'m hoping to repeat that with this filly who had a bad start & didn\'t do any running in her key race debut in January.  Looking for big improvement off a slow number.
2) #12 Dianthus (7/2) Ran 4th in the same race my top choice ran 9th, then ran 5th in her 2nd start. Looking for a rebound from that race
Edit: My 3rd choice #14 SCRATCHED

[shanahan]

Excellent job, thx for posting this!