BC, Baffert, and California ('16, '17, '19, '21)

[Fairmount1]

The last 4 BC\'s in California:  2016 Santa Anita, 2017 Del Mar, 2019 Santa Anita, 2021 Del Mar

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By my count and no warranties if I made a mistake but I think I have it accurate.

Baffert\'s Record During That time in only BC races for the 2-day event.

25-3-6-4

At SA specifically for 2016 and 2019

10-2-1-2

Favs for that 4-year California set

8-1-1-2

In the Classic for that 4-year California set

6-1-3-1

In the Classic at SA since 2003.

8-2-1-0 (those 3 ITM were in the last 3 BC\'s at SA)

The last 2 BC\'s in Cali Only if you think that may matter (I do)

9-1-2-2 (3 of the 9 starters were favorites with Corniche at 7-5 his lone winner of those 9 starters)
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Noteworthy:  Drefong 6th at 7-5 in 2017 at Del Mar after winning the Sprint in 2016 at SA.  

Gamine in 2021 at Del Mar was 3rd at 2-5 in a field of 5.  

Dortmund in 2016 at SA was .70-1 and finished 4th.

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Speed Boat Beach is the FINAL BC race of the BCBC this year (the Sprint not the Classic) and hopefully they release the players plays as in years past b/c I really want to see how people play that horse after the fact in contest play.

[richiebee]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The last 4 BC\'s in California:  2016 Santa Anita,
> 2017 Del Mar, 2019 Santa Anita, 2021 Del Mar
>
> ______________________
>
> By my count and no warranties if I made a mistake
> but I think I have it accurate.
>
> Baffert\'s Record During That time in only BC races
> for the 2-day event.
>
> 25-3-6-4
>
Can I play along? Because you know I am a big BoBaffle fan.

QUERY: For the same set of races how many other trainers saddled 25 starters?
How many of these trainers with 25 starters had nine or more runners in the
exacta? I am curious but certainly not involved enough to research this myself.

I could not expect that BB\'s stellar \"regular season\" record at SA and Del Mar
would be duplicated when (a) large fields (b) of runners from the top levels of
racing are participating in the two day event.

[Fairmount1]

Except for one comment about the last 2 Cali BC\'s might matter, I really did not think I made a comment on whether the record was good or bad.  I was more interested in what his record was out there and posted it for everyone to make their own conclusions.  I actually think his BC Classic Performance has been pretty good in Cali for those 4 BC\'s.  1st with Arrogate in 2016; 2nd, 3rd, 5th in 2017 behind Gun Runner (Arrogate was over the top for whatever reasons and 5th as the slight fav); 2nd in 2019 with McKinzie; 2nd in 2021 with Medina Spirit.  Tipping my hand now of where he might be worth a play. . .

He has a lot of horses in this year and wanted to see if I could find any extra hints about what to do with some of his horses.

Muth
Prince of Monaco
National Treasure
Arabian Knight
Eda
Adare Manor
Speed Boat Beach

Those come to mind but from memory only if any omissions.

[richiebee]

Rich

If the purpose was to identify \"bet against\" opportunities at the BC, I would
think the focus would be on more likely usual New Age suspects C. Appleby, C.
Brown and Godolphin. And what to do with anything ridden by Jo-El Rosario who is
having a difficult year?

Totally unrelated, a previous post noted Steve Asmussen\'s cold streak. Looking at
Kee Sat PPs, Asmussen is 37 5-6-4. His son is 1/16. and I am assuming most if not
all of these mounts is for Father Steve.

The pre entries snuck up on me and I have some catching up to do.

[Tavasco]

Assmussen\'s (Steve) trainee \"Spoiler\" just won the 1st race @ Kee and paid 23.96 for $2 to win. An easy horse to overlook slowish relative to the comoetition, second off a lengthy layoff, and switching from two turf efforts back to dirt where he started his career very slowly. He surprised many I think going gate to wire for the first time.

Oh he worked :48.2 last week. PP\'s list him as a 18% winning trainer 2023.

As far as the B.C. goes I think he was the trainer who said two year olds shipping west for the B.C. have poor 3 y/o campaigns so he left Pletcher and Baffert to fight out the 2 y/o races. add a euro and a Samarai for spice.

[Fairmount1]

My X factor I mentioned on the board a while back for BC won easily yesterday at Aqueduct since they decided for the G2 Mother Goose over the BC Distaff.  

In the Distaff, Adare Manor sports a solid record overall.  Looking a little closer at her record, she is 7 for 7 by about 49 lengths when Baffert has been the named trainer in 2 turn routes in California.  In sprints, in races outside CA, or races trained by McCarthy and Yakteen, Zero wins.  No meaningful handicapping info but just more interesting BC tidbits.

[mistermoose]

I am friends with Phil Bauer and was kind of hoping she tried the distaff
with all the speed signed on. Hopefully she will be a pretty nice 4yo
and get a shot next year. Sort of bugs me that Johnny Ice didnt do his
homework and learn the correct pronunciation.It is pronounced Kee Jera.
 Good luck to all next week, including my brother Peter who will be
running Get Smokin, and try to do a Highland Reel imitation. lol

[johnnym]

One of my favorite rides ever was that Highland reel
Had a nice win bet on him
GL
John

[mistermoose]

me too, my son also played him in the BCBC. That was a great race
and day for us. Cant believe its been 7 years. Time flies!