Bias, Pace and Numbers

[Anonymous User]

By the ninth race it was clear that Churchill was playing to front runners. Last year the track was lightning quick but fair. Everyone always thinks there is gonna be a suicide speed duel in the Derby. It was easy to project War Emblem, Proud Citizen and  Medaglia d\'Oro on the lead. Pre race I felt with those horses trying to get 10 panels for the first time, a 47 half was not unreasonable. When I saw it go up I really felt my bet was secure. I didn\'t post it pre race so I won\'t take credit for it now. But as I laid my bet down, more and more the thought came to me how Proud Citizen was a Charismatic. Look at his PP\'s. He ran great his first two. Jumped into a graded stakes and had gate problems. Bled in his next graded stakes with gate problems. Was put away for months and ran bang up for six panels in the Santa Anita Derby off the shelf. Then won the Lexington with ease. With the track favoring speed, I tossed him in. My Lexington speed figure had him close. Its funny the first two picked up 12 and 10 pounds respectively. Normally thats way too much for me but I forgave it Saturday. Maybe it was fate...lol.

Oh and Megadlia coming up with a cough and some fluid as well. But I knew that pre race.

CtC

[Tim B.]

Once again, I think it was a great play by you having War Emblem and Proud Citizen yesterday, no matter how you came up with em.  Let\'s face it...you\'re counting your money now and many of us are reloading, which is all that matters.

I do have a minor grudge however with the track superintendant at Churchill, who year-after-year gets media attention and is regarded as one of the best in the business for his ability to get the main track there to dry out faster than most despite heavy rainfall.  Wouldn\'t you think this track maven could figure out a way to have the track playing fair to all horses for ONE day each year?  Why does souping up a track for big days become so important to racetracks these days?  Do we care about horses running 6 furlongs in 1:08 and change that much?

Gulfstream Park had been notorious for doing this on Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby days, making it virtually impossible for closers to even be in the exacta, let alone win.  They made the track a bit deeper this year, the times were slower, but the track had MUCH fewer big biases this year.

Is the Churchill track super trying to get a Derby winner to run 1:59?  Having a strong track bias on Derby day, or Breeders\' Cup day, etc. is horrid.  Sure, those who recognize the bias are bound to make a few bucks.  But how about the horsemen and owners that have their horses pointed to these big races for months that end up having NO chance of contending because a track super took it away from em?

War Emblem was best, and probably would have won on a track without a speed bias yesterday with that kind of soft, easy lead.  He didn\'t need the bias (I believe) to win, but it surely made it MUCH tougher for about 60% of the rest of the field.

[TGJB]

You are absolutely right- you didn\'t post it pre-race.

[Anonymous User]

I didn\'t post the exacta or trifecta pre race. But if you go to my 5/4 post made at 17:40, you\'ll see I was on the winner.  And was on re: tossing the Euro horses. Essence of Dubai..what a joke. How much more I had I won\'t say here. But near the end I thought about Luka\'s four Derbies, his success earlier in the day with Snow Ridge and the filly in the 2 year old stakes and I looked very closely at Proud Citizen. I decided I would not let him beat me. I also began to waiver on Saarland and Harlan\'s, boxing each individually with War Emblem but without conviction. 90% of my bet was to win.

Tabitha

[MO]

Am in agreement, they can\'t win the Derby training in the desert, then shipping here. Just like most horses from America who ship to the desert, once they come back to civilization, even if they\'ve won, there done. It has to do with dehydration. (I used to live in the desert)

(Can\'t win on 1 7f prep on turf overseas either.)

Lukas had that big S$#@ eating grin in the paddock and the horse looked great. No matter what you think of the man, when he\'s that confident, he\'s rarely wrong.

MO

[Mall]

Is it really you Chuckles? I know Hank The Angry Dwarf is taken, but why Tabitha, which I thought was a girl\'s name? I assume you haven\'t been posting, but did you continue to read other\'s posts? I went to considerable trouble to set up a meeting between you & a friend of Dr. Z\'s & you were nowhere to be found. Kudos on the Derby pick. I hope you ignored my post that it was not the kind of race which warranted a prime bet.

[Alydar in California]

This mystery will be cleared up when Tabitha wiggles her nose and makes Lukas (or me) disappear.

[tonyk]

If you see Lucas in that blus pin-stripe suit  you had better beware

[HP]

Jerry, old Tab said he liked War Emblem to win before the race. By contrast, you made several posts comparing a certain 10th place finisher to Victory Gallop.

I\'m sure your SEMINAR has some points in it where you make it clear you would be using Proud Citizen on your tickets. Certainly nothing you posted HERE would lead me to believe you thought too much of the top two finishers. Nothing in the article you posted either.

I\'m just saying...in terms of BOARD POSTINGS, Tab, despite all his previous nonsense, is the clear winner. Based on the article and your postings HERE, you backed in.

Tabby gets some bragging rights and props from me (for what it\'s worth). You get to hire an armed guard to pick up your cash. I guess I would rather be...  HP

[TGJB]

If you\'re talking about the TDN article, it wasn\'t about the Derby. And I don\'t remember posting here specifically about it either- we charge for it. Kerrison got some of it in the Post article, but he has space limitations, and I didn\'t give him full analysis anyway- mostly I told him the race was a bet-against of HH, CH, and J.
My opinions were in the seminar, and the notes with the Derby sheets(which were the seminar, verbatim). I can\'t give a big spread play in the analysis- I can\'t assume that casual players bet that much.