Historical Derby Comparisons

[Tavasco]

I looked back at a few previous running to find some comparables. The obvious ones are when Mine That Bird won and the one in the rain when another pacesetter went kamikazi.

But first, In some ways the 2016 edition in which Nyquist beat Exaggerator, GunRunner, and Mohayman. Both versions had a rabbit and went fast. Only the best of the best Nyquist and Gunnrunner were able to preserver after attending Danzig Candy\'s (Mike Smith\'s) pace. But no rail running bomb.

Now to the 2009 Mine That Bird, Pioneer of The Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem version. Judging 2009 may be beyond me. Not particularly fast by the raw time. But the track was sloppy and sealed. Noteworthy In that a mostly unknown colt jumped up and got an advantageous trip which won out over conventional tactics.

In 2013 Palace Malice, also on a sloppy sealed tracks goes quarter hose and chaos reigns supreme. Orb comes from 17th to win, beating a bevy of run late efforts like Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and Normandy Invasion. Some who chose to chase Palace Malice such as Verrazano, Vyjack flopped only Oxbow ran a reasonable race.

As I posted before the race the way to beat an early speed type is to have them run too fast too soon and that is exactly what happened this year. I suppose the Japanese contingent got what they wanted Publicity and an invitation to the Met Mile. Additionally veterans Mike Smith and John Velazques probably just did what they were asked to do. Attend the pace you\'ve got the fastest horse. Not really knowing how good Crown Pride actually was. I would have expected contingencies but I guess they were one-trick ponies so to speak.

IMO, It\'s Unlikely Rich Strike ever gets a similar race setup so I don\'t expect a string of victories from him. Somebody tell trainer Reed he doesn\'t have to go for the Triple Crown a Derby Belmont double would be historic.

Do the Yakteen trainees stay on the 3 Y/O Classics Quest.

[johnnym]

My biggest issue was I did not handicap for the "Summer" horse to be a rabbit.
Sinister Minister comes to mind.

[Fairmount1]

Messier and Tabia not going to Baltimore.  

"Both Taiba and Messier will head back to California," Yakteen said in a text message Monday to Horse Racing Nation. "They came back in good shape. We will regroup and come up with a campaign."

In old news from an espn.com story:

Medina Spirit and two other horses trained by Bob Baffert will be under extra scrutiny in the days leading up to the second jewel of the Triple Crown. The Maryland Racing Commission and Baffert have agreed to the conditions for Medina Spirit, fellow Preakness runner Concert Tour, and Beautiful Gift, who is expected to run in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Friday.

\"We reached an agreement with Mr. Baffert and his lawyers that allows for additional testing, additional monitoring -- essentially a watchlist to ensure the integrity of the sport leading up to the race,\" Maryland Jockey Club lawyer Alan Rifkin said. \"We\'re very pleased to have that, and we appreciate Mr. Baffert\'s patience and the way in which his lawyers went about it.\"

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Beautiful Gift lost by 17 lengths as the 2.20-1 favorite in the Black Eyed Susan.

Medina Spirit ran 3rd losing to Rombauer and Midnight Bourbon by 5.5 and 2 lengths respectively as the 2.40-1 favorite.  What did those two go on to accomplish???

And Concert Tour lost by 34 1/2 lengths at 3.70-1 (3rd choice) running 9th of 10.  

But hey, you guys can keep on telling me that monitoring horses closely before a big dance doesn\'t mean a single thing with the results of graded stakes races.  

Kind of related but kind of unrelated:  wonder if anyone could to a dirt graded stakes study showing how many horses have won year by year that were 10 lengths or more behind after the first call of a sprint or first call of a route (half mile).  My guess is in the past 5 to 8 years it is less than say 12-20 years ago.  

Anywho, at least there are serious productive discussions on the board about racing.