Florida Derby

[prist]

Where are all the handicappers?

Anyone like O CAPTAIN? At 87/1 he broke bad in the FOY and still ran well. What\'s he going to do if he breaks well with Rosario up? I\'ll pay to find out.

SIMPLIFICATION the one to beat, IMHO. Fastest horse.

STRIKE HARD is also interesting based on the ML. Brutal trip LTO. Has the rail and a touch of speed. Could save valuable ground under those circumstances.

May box those three.

Thoughts?

[statuette]

Strike hard my pick on top. So now he's mushed lol

[ajkreider]

I will be playing O Captain underneath.  Think there will be a decent pace to run in to, and he closed into a slow pace in the FOY. Was in the middle of that fall, and 2nd widest. He won\'t be that price out of the gate though.

Maybe a saver on top, but the top 3 deserve the billing.

[Tavasco]

per BRIS if I understand correctly from a sample of 40 races all three-year-olds stakes & Handicap races @GP $100k+ the betting favorite wins 48% of the time.

So one doesn\'t need much of a price to have a positive potential.

Whichever of the top four(4) contenders ends up the favorite it\'s likely the crowd will get it right.

Based on that I will look for value underneath and even that seems iffy now that I\'m expecting a chalky finish.

My final angle will be (same source) runners of P-type have fared well recently albeit a small sample. Those would be Papacap, Cajun\'s Magic, and Steal Sunshine.

Steal Sunshine  + competent trainer stats, well enough bred to not discount, apparent good recent works.  - unheralded rider, post position no history that suggests the ability to finish near the top ones here. But - IMO the potential for a jump up.

Cajun\'s Magic  + has already run fast enough to be considered. c/b an alternator or maybe just inconsistent. - no celebrities in any category so it\'s hard to know what connections may be thinking.

Papacap + lightly raced as 3 y/o, ran fast at the end of his 2 y/o campaign including a 2nd place finish in the BC Juvy. Casse has been working him fast and often.  - his last race resulted in a collapse and quit trying just as he should have been making his run. He\'s attended a fast pace previously. ? so the question mark is his condition because he\'s previously proven capable.

Investment Strategy
The race offers ex, tri, spr, and super hi-5. So under the four m/l favorites, I will use Papacap on the bottom of the tri and super, additionally, I will use Cajun\'s Magic & Steal Sunshine at the bottom of the super high-5 behind the above mentioned 5 contenders.

Good Luck!

[Tavasco]

Evidently, I misunderstood something because BRIS has the same 48% winners in graded stakes on the Oaklawn pps also. Same 40 race sample.

[Molesap]

I always understood those stats to be track specific as well.

[Tavasco]

What\'s the story with #1 Strike Hard? Is this a Lasix issue? I see he was scratched at Tampa in last. Currently @ 37/1 sure seems like an overlay on a  horse that doesn\'t look like a Soup Can.