FOY Rail Question

[Sandreadis]

Most jocks avoided the rail in this race. Simplification positioned off the rail and into traffic in the first turn and had to apply the brakes on. The few horses that ran on it, seemed to go nowhere including Rattle n Roll.
Could be an angle in the LA Derby if the rail was in question.
Anyone familiar with GP paths, care to comment?

[Gary Irish]

I had the same thought as you, but found it hard to get head-on GP replays so cannot look at other races for this.

I ultimately took the view he (RNR) was likely short in the FOY, and KPM was looking down the road. After scratching from the BC with a rear hoof issue, the colt missed all of November, December, and three weeks of January before showing up on the GP work tab.

Here are his works: 1/22 36b - 1/29 35.3b - 2/5 48.3b - 2/12 50.1b - 2/19 59.3b - 2/26 58.3b.

So he doesn\'t work as far as 5f until two weeks before his return. The old logic from Coach Lukas was you cannot miss a day from 2 to 3 bringing a runner up to the first Saturday in May. This one missed approx 82 days.

He will need more points to make the gate 5/7. I hope he gets them Saturday, but KPM mentioned the Lexington as a fail safe.

I tend to get overly enamored with some runners. When I watched his Kee win, his move looked Azeri-like. He showed a little something going up the rail at GP, but he wasn\'t going anywhere when he got bumped straightening out.

All the big questions should be answered Saturday.

[Molesap]

Epicenter will be tough to rundown on Saturday but horses with Rattle N Roll's running style already are at a disadvantage at GP. It\'s tough to come off the pace more than a couple lengths and win there, even going two turns. Of the last 70 two turn dirt races at GP, 78% were won by horses within two lengths of the lead after half mile pole - the other 22% were won by horses between two lengths and six lengths back. I don\'t think anyone has won from more than six lengths off the pace going two turns on the main at GP this meet. Rattle N Roll was 5.75 lengths back at the first call - tough to overcome that at GP.

[Sandreadis]

The other piece of the RNR Fountain of Youth was that he was bet down to 9/2 on a 27 million dollar handle day.

[ajkreider]

Simplification was pounded even lower, and closer to gate time.  Those were big bets.

Speaking of, I can\'t recall a first crop sire (Not This Time) producing two top-of-division horses like Epicenter and Simplification - both by  mares with the same sire (Candy Ride).

[Gary Irish]

How  Cool, a breeding observation! Right up my alley.

Not being critical, but how about his (Not This Time) half brother Liam\'s Map?

His first crop found both Basin (G1 Hopeful) and Wicked Whisper (G1 Frizette) near the top of their respective divisions.

Thank God for Not This Time. After siring the wonderful Shamardal in his first crop, and the good sire First Samurai in his second, it has been a series of disappointments.

I want to add Curlin\'s sire son Connect to the list, but would need some leeway. He sired the above mentioned RNR (Grade 1) as well as the G3 winning filly Hidden Connection, who goes Saturday at FG versus the champ Echo Zulu.

I found an interesting connection today by chance. The last Classic winner KGM saddled was the filly Swiss Skydiver, one of only two runners to defeat Authentic. She was out of a Johannesburg mare, as is RNR.

I could go on and on but don\'t want to put anyone to sleep.