Even Blind Squirrels

[Fairmount1]

Before designer drugs really took over the game, pedigrees had more meaning esp in graded stakes.  They still do but not the same way.  It is not mentioned much in specific detail but many sires flat out could NOT get horses to go 1 1/4 for instance until the last decade or so.  Just wasn\'t happening.  There were limitations and you could BANK on it.  Then some trainers started making it happen for some of these sires and then people started talking about it must be from the Dam side.  Ex.  City Zip as a sire.  I\'ll let others connect dots on that one.  

So long story short, in my early days of playing, I followed pedigree more and followed all of Jerkens horses very close during 2000-onward when I dove into the game.  I knew with the name Shop Again she had to be related to Miss Shop and did not recall the Trappe Shot connection who was trained by McLaughlin until I looked it up.

[Rich Curtis]

Fairmount:

\"many sires flat out could NOT get horses to go 1 1/4\"

How are you defining \"NOT get horses to go 1 1/4\" in speed figure terms? What kind of a decline are you talking about?

[Fairmount1]

RC,

Very fine question.  When I wrote that I was generalizing based on what I recall as automatic handicapping angles in stakes races.  I follow Lauren Stich\'s train of thought that Sires determine the surface and distance preferences and the mare determines the ability or so-called class.  I don\'t like that term but let\'s say that certain mares certainly throw ones that run and it is a clear pattern and others don\'t.  

So when I made my comments, I was basing my thoughts on the sire\'s influence as to surface and distance.  That said I did not have any evidence, specifically, figure based to back it up.  

A look at CZ Rocket\'s sheet might be enlightening as he is a City Zip from a TG perspective.  

From a Beyer perspective, fwiw I don\'t know, his average Sprint Beyer was 48 as a sire and 54 as a route sire.  He had 9200 plus starters in sprints and 2800 plus starters in routes.  He had 16 percent winners in both sprints and routes with 44 percent hitting the board in sprints (WPS) and 46 hitting the board (WPS) in routes.

All that being said as to his total record as a sire . . . If I could see the list of all his dirt graded stakes progeny, I could make some more evidentiary based statements to support or deny my claim that City Zip\'s (for instance) did not win at route or \"classic\" distances on dirt at least until a trainer or two figured out how to \"stretch\" that pedigree to a mile and a quarter.  I don\'t have all of that info and given I\'m looking at more BC stuff, I\'ll leave it for another day.  

I did want to respond though so you know I appreciate your point and I\'ll try to do better in the future with avoiding assertions.  

On Friday\'s card, I\'m high Pappacapp in the race that started this string.  I haven\'t checked TG yet as that will be my last review tomorrow morning but have to believe he fits on there.  Lots of other reasons to also support him.  If you go back and watch his race two back, you have to give further thought.  His last was behind a golden rail, front running Baffert horse and he was 3w, 3w.  I\'ll play him with JC who I think will have a nice trip from the rail actually given the runners next to him several stalls out.  

I hate Echo Zulu and love JuJu\'s Map.  

Good Luck to all.

[Gary Irish]

Nice to see real breeding thoughts on a handicapping board. I am very defensive about my passion. I never want to bore.

Re Pappacap, I have been looking out for runners out of Scat Daddy mares since Whitmore.

Re JC - If the Half Ours doesn\'t catch up to him tomorrow (Sat) I lose.

Re Comandperformer - While I hold that Union Rags don\'t train on, they can run early.

I want to go on but have to bite my tongue.

[Rich Curtis]

Thank you, Fairmount.

[confused]

I don\'t know anything about that track, but the time was pedestrian....and he looked all out.

[statuette]

He had a nice work on Wednesday

[Boscar Obarra]

I actually noticed your post about Japan runners this week, , and thought it was interesting.
 
  Would you now say they have repaired any defect in their regimen ?

[Tavasco]

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But I do like the horse named Japan.  Lost to Gufo
> in Sword Dancer with a terrible trip-woulda won
> easily.  Next in Joe Hirsch did nothing, but his
> regular jockey stayed behind.  Check out Japan\'s
> results with Ryan Moore rather than Lordan.


Sadly, Ryan Moore didn\'t get to 3rd, but sure did help the SPR, which was not me. any Appleby\'s or Japanese breds in the classi



Oh Godolphin!