Ohio Derby

[prist]

I find it difficult to split three horses, so I will make them all 7/2 and see what the board has to offer.

PROMISE KEEPER: Competitive top, eligible to improve, inside post.

KING FURY: Fast top, has time since that number, have to respect.

PROXY: Also has fast top, also has time, outside post a negative.

To play against the top three I would need at least 7/1 to be interested. Three horses in this group as well.

ETHICAL JUDGEMENT: Lightly raced, forging.

KEEPMEINMIND: Has the 4, overall negative position on the line, underlay if M/L is accurate.

MASQUEPARADE: Coming off the fastest number in the race, have to play him to bounce, outside post.

[JEB]

How bad are the outside posts at 9 Furlongs at TDN? Masqueparade has had six weeks off since that big number. At 8/1, i have to consider if the post is not death.

[jerry]

Tough race to have any conviction on a winner. The ML seems about right with the only value being on the Stall horse MASQUEPARADE. He’s fastest horse coming into the race, good trainer and plenty of rest from his last big jump. At 8-1, he’d be my key although I think he’ll go off somewhere closer to half that price.

As for the rest of the field, 12-1 on HOZIER is enticing. New trainer with a good last 90 day record. Would not be surprised if he made some noise.

[prist]

I see that PROXY has scratched. That brings the odds down to 3/1 & 6/1.

[Tavasco]

I\'ll start with the horse expected to provide the biggest reward, #11 Channel Fury. This one Presents opportunity and problems. The opportunity is he could improve some more although most would doubt that. The problems are: a) most of his experience has been sprinting, you won\'t be alone if you don\'t expect him to be around at the finish, B) He will be prominent through, at least the first 6F, and that complicates the trips of Masqueparade(10) Ethical Judgement(5) and Promise Keeper(1). If #11 doesn\'t rate the three(3) contenders listed above are faced with either running faster in the first half of the race than they are accustomed to or changing tactics some and dropping more off the pace than typical.

Note - this is the same phenomenon we saw in the Texas Derby at Lone Star Prist pointed us at a week or two ago. In that race, the horses previously had run with the pace dropped back half a dozen lengths and came storming home in the stretch.

Because it would be a cheap thrill I will put this one in 4th position of superperfectas under a group with number power and possessing some early speed. e.g. 1,4,5,10