Belmont Day - 6th Race

[Mstrlucky74]

Completed pass is just as fast as any here.
New top at 7yr old is a bit unusual.
I\'ve always liked the the pattern displayed here in the last two races.
I\'d think at this age, two serious efforts and coming back short this horse horse should go back more.
Conflicted!!
Thoughts?

[RICH]

negative on the line of a older horse running a big number off layoff and then going back another point

your getting paid if the ML holds on a pretty fast horse at 5F

tough call, probably tossing

[grinder]

I would agree with Rich on his assessment of Completed Pass. While he does have fast recent numbers - both were earned at 5 furlongs and he is a 7 year old coming back on short rest off two huge efforts and Lasix-off for this race. Additionally, the trainer has had very limited success shipping to NYRA. The only recent wins I could find were on the dirt at Aqueduct during the Fall/Winter meets.

I think the key to the race is Bound for Nowhere - he ran huge last time after a very awkward start from a wide post. He is another 7 year old with a lot of talent but apparent physical issues. It usually pays to bet against these horses running  back after running big figures off a layoff. However, Wesley Ward\'s barn has been on fire all Spring and he continues his hot hand at Belmont. Therefore, I find it difficult to take a hard stand against him and will cover with him in the exotics.

I am interested in Sombeyay in here. He ran a very good number at Churchill last time - while in tight and bounced around in traffic in deep stretch. While the trainer has been quiet so far at Belmont, he has a history of getting big numbers from his turf sprinters in stakes races. While he could regress off the last effort - I think he is the price play of the race at 7/1 or better.

I also think that Got Stormy appears to be a shadow of her former self - from a figure and visual perspective. Unless it was a Lasix-off issue, she had absolutely no punch last time.

Seems like a helluva good card to get involved with on Saturday - Good Luck.

[bfick]

I have him going backwards in this race.  His tops have been at the same track and the short rest has me pegging him middle of the pack here.

I keep coming back to Sombeyay and Fast Boat as the two I want in here to beat the favorite.

[RICH]

agree 100% on those 2

[Tavasco]

Once Joel, Realized (he\'d screwed the pooch) and he wasn\'t riding Hot Rod Charlie  on dirt and Grass Races even sprints are won mostly by coming from off the pace the race was in shambles.

A less colorful description is he bounced.

Blame Peter Miller?