Who said Pace is a Handicapping Issue??

[jbelfior]

I think we all need to consider that the 1 1/8 Woodward was around 1 turn.

The 1:08 and change that GZ and SL put down pretty much distanced everyone else who could not keep up. There are theories out there that good horses will throw out some incredible numbers , both pace and final, when allowed to roll early in races around 1 turn (remember Grand Canyon\'s incredible race at 1m as a 2yo) or EASY GOER\'s Gotham at Aqueduct.  

Looking at the Gazelle, you see the 6f in 1:12. No shot for the closers---too much left to do. Then you see 1:08 and still the closers are nowhere. It\'s as if they need a range of 1:10-1:11 around 1 turn at Belmont to have a say in the outcome.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

>Looking at the Gazelle, you see the 6f in 1:12. No shot for the closers---too much left to do. Then you see 1:08 and still the closers are nowhere. <

You are correct to point out that a 108+ around 1 turn is a lot different than 108+ around 2 turns.

Part of that 108+  vs 112 has to do with the superiority of the horses too. They are  better horses, so the pace can be faster. Second, in the Gazelle they were walking. That tends to make that 108+ look faster than it actually was. That was not as blistering a pace as it looks. It was fast, but not suicidal. First quarter was moderate.

[jbelfior]

CH--

I know they are better horses...I was just trying to point out that there are paces that are sometimes too fast (as well as too slow) for the closers to handle.

The Woodward and the Gazelle were 2 end of the spectrum examples. Now of course if you had a PLEASANTLY PERFECT or an ASHADO in either race, the pace may not have mattered at all. There are some Grade 1 animals who can overcome anything.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fasteddie]

Pace was the race! Anytime a speed horse can get an opening fraction slower than the second, the good ones are there at the end. Look up the PP\'s of the great Dr. Fager; on at least 4 occasions, he ran slower than normal (for him!) first calls, ran faster the second, and had gas at the end. When General Assembly won his Travers, he ran a 25 opener on his way to a 2:00 final time that is STILL the stakes record. Birdstone will win the classic while the others won\'t have a \'Ghost of a chance.

[HP]

I was interested in Mall\'s comments about Lone Star and Monmouth. I played Lone Star a few times and one thing I did notice was a lot of winners coming out of outside posts (10 and up). I played one Friday night and I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen so many 11-13 exactas in my life. I\'m sure Mazur\'s Crushing the Cup will feature some insights on this, but are there are Lone Star specialists out there who have some insights?

I would guess they will water that turf course like crazy, so I don\'t know how much the usual turf results will be reflected on BC day...  HP

>I was just trying to point out that there are paces that are sometimes too fast (as well as too slow) for the closers to handle. <

Yes.  

I think the term is to \"bottom out\" the field.  

IMO, that usually only happens when the middle part of the race is very fast and the closers are used very hard to get and maintain position even though they are off the pace.  

I\'m not really sure that was the case in the Woodward even though the middle was scorching. The top two drew off from the field. I think perhaps the top 2 were simply very good and the others ran below their best.  Had they tried to stay in contact, I think they would have gotten really crushed.

I\'ll have examine the race/chart better.

[Mall]

I\'ve never played or even seen a race at Lone Star, HP, but we should be able to get some idea of the track during the special meet leading up to the BC, which I think starts on 10/1. I am advised that on XpressBet and/or HRTV: special workout reports will be made available & shoe info will be available for all the races considerably in advance of the 1st race, thereby eliminating the situation where you find out that a horse or horses you keyed on in a multiple wager is 1st time bar shoes or alum pads. I have also heard that an effort is underway to communicate real time physicality/conformation observations from the paddock over the internet, similar to what Takach is thinking about doing in SoCal.

[TGJB]

I\'m somewhat interested in all of that and VERY interested in the shoe information. We get the stuff you see on the sheets from Equibase, along with the other data they give us, and the info for NYRA is much more extensive than for the other tracks. This might be because Barry Schwartz was partners in owning horses with Ernie Dahlman, who used to pay someone to call him from the paddock with shoeing information every race. Meaning, front caulks, back caulks on, etc.

Anyway, Equibase shoeing info is spotty, and they claim there is nothing they can do about it because most tracks don\'t record the data.

[Mall]

From my experience, the shoe information in NY is for the most part gathered in the paddock by someone going around to each of the trainers & asking, & that person then communicated with Durkin so he could announce it over the loudspeaker. Not particularly reliable, which might be why Dahlman went to the expense of hiring someone.

I\'ve not been to Emerald, but at Longacres shoe information appeared on the tote board directly under the horse\'s odds in a space for just that purpose.

Finally, from what I\'ve been told, most but not all of the new information at Lone Star will be available to one & all at no charge.

[jimbo66]

Fast Eddie,

Birdstone winning the classic would be one of the most surprising things I have seen in racing in the last 10 years.  

Without seeing the field, I would give him a 1 in 50 shot.

[twoshoes]

Agree with the premise but that\'s shortchanging him. But that wouldn\'t be anything new - most did it in the Belmont as well.