ROTW-Gazelle (to JB)

[jimbo66]

JB,

I think the scratches help Stellar Jayne.  This won\'t surprise you,  because I think change in pace scenario makes a bigger difference than the potential better trips due to less ground loss for the closers.  

I am guessing you think the scratches help Bending Strings and He Loves Me, because they won\'t lose as much ground.

I sincerely hope you are right, as I have nice sized Pick-3\'s live to your two horses as well as the rank outsider with Cornelio Velazquez.

But I have lost confidence in betting against Stellar Jayne because she figures to have an easly lead if Albarado sends.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo66

Nice call on Stellar Jane.

Has Bending Strings crossed the finish line yet the race was run over hour ago.

[TGJB]

I think the slow pace did have an effect, at least to the degree that the bunched up field caused severe ground loss, which may or may not have affected the outcome-- I won\'t know until I do the day.

But here\'s my question-- how come the pace helped SJ and not BS, who totally spit it out?

[jimbo66]

Bending Strings was a question mark at the 1 1/8 distance.  She may not have wanted to go that far.

[TGJB]

Could be, but she was cooked after 5f. Also have to point out that the slow pace in the turf race mattered only to about the eighth pole, and the fast pace in the Woodward didn\'t seem to matter at all. Point being, results can be-- to use your term-- retrofitted. My guess is that SJ backed up a little and won because she saved ground, BS and the Shug filly didn\'t run their tops, and HLM ran her race but lost a ton of ground on the turn.

[tucker]

I am biased with these comments because I bet HLM, but what was Santana thinking.  How can a jockey get caught 5 wide in a 6 horse field?  He must of thought that this was Pimlico.  I can understand Mr. Small sticking with his regular jock, but he can\'t be happy.  All Santana had to do was wait until they straightend out from the turn and he would have had a shot.  He would have had to work to run down SJ and Daydreaming, but he had plenty of horse, at least put the horse in position to win.  He should have talked with Edgar Prado before the race.

[jimbo66]

JB,

Early pace in turf racing in less relevant than in turf races.  Even the most devout pace handicappers will give you that.

The turf race was a lousy betting race.  The Europeans towered over the field, especially on soft turf.  I threw Ballingarry into my three horse box, to try and get some value, but he didn\'t run.  

Boxing Balto Star, the 3 year old from Frankel and Request for PARole, on yielding turf? Please..............

[TGJB]

I don\'t mind you saying who you bet after the race, it\'s sometimes annoying but otherwise innocuous. But don\'t knock our picks unless you go on the record in advance. I\'m going to leave that one up-- I won\'t next time.

[jimbo66]

JB,

Take it down.

I don\'t post lies.  I said very clearly in one of my posts that I did worse than your negative 18 percent return at Saratoga.  That certainly ain\'t braggin or gloatin..

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- it\'s not about bragging or gloating, and I don\'t think you are lying. But anyone can pick spots to take shots after the race-- if my box had run 1-2-3, would you have come here afterwards and said boy, what a ridiculous pick?

Jimbo,

>I am surprised by your \"what is the point\". Do you actually believe there is ONLY value in betting against favorites? <

I realize it\'s all moot now. I thought  Stella was going to be the deserving favorite and Capeside\'s negatives weren\'t strong enough to consider her a non-contender. So I had a tough time seeing where the value would be.