Aqueduct Figures

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

Craig Milkowski and David Aragona spent the last 12 minutes of the Timeform US Pacecast posted yesterday talking about how difficult it has been to make speed figures for Aqueduct this winter due to the magnitude and frequency of intra-card changes in track speed.  I know, because of your methodology, TG would be less impacted by this kind of issue than others.  Could you comment on whether, even using your methods, the figures have been harder to make and more figures are marked for review?  Thanks.

[TGJB]

Aqueduct can be pretty variable in general, in part because wind has a big effect on the one turn races, and there’s usually plenty of wind. Additional things that can make things tough are small fields and lightly raced horses, especially when the track is changing speed.

For some reason presumably Covid related, that was happening a lot over the last year, and there are times when you (meaning I) had no choice other than to leave a box. There were also lots of races where we assigned figures but there was enough uncertainty that I had to go back and review them. We have now gone back and done that and/or filled in most of the boxes.

That said, I haven’t noticed anything unusual about Aqueduct this year, but as you said, I take a somewhat different approach.

By the way, one other thing that can make things tough is when trainers are moving horses up, and there’s less of that recently, especially in NY.

[TGJB]

I’m guessing Craig was referring to Saturday, and he’s right. Big wind that day had a lot to do with it.

[TGJB]

Track speed was moving around even more at Aqueduct this past weekend. Crazy stuff, and not all due to wind. It gets even tougher with small fields, you have less data to work with.

[bluechip21]

JB, question for you. I know you guys have the X for running on a dead rail. Has there been any consideration to indicating horses that ran against a gold rail? Or similarly, horses that rode a gold rail? Or is this not as important a factor as noting horses who ran against a dead rail?

[TGJB]

The short answer to that is no. The long answer is longer.

[bluechip21]

Dare I ask? Or do I shut up and be happy with my short answer?

Also, thx.