Math Question on Pick 4 at Oaklawn

[Socalman3]

Late Pick 4 at Oaklawn today had the following prices --

$18.20
$47.60
$21.60
$76.00

$2 parlay pays $177,768.

The $2 pick 4 paid -- $84,052.60 -- less than half the parlay.  

i know that the pools are unconnected.

my question is -- does paying less than half the parlay in this case mean something suspicious is going on or is it just normal volatility that while unfortunate is not a crazy occurrence?  Should the person who collected half the parlay feel unlucky or feel robbed?  If unlucky, is it very unlucky (like getting hit with a once a century event) -- or just run of the mill unlucky.

[Roger N]

I will just add the morning line on those horses:
6-1
8-1
5-1
20-1
The first 3 were all mentioned in the analysis and the $47.60 winner was on top.
The last race - Arkansas State Bred Maidens are a crapshoot at best.

[BitPlayer]

By my math, there were only $2.50 in winning tickets.  A single ticket scooping the pool would only have gotten $105,077.

[Socalman3]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> By my math, there were only $2.50 in winning
> tickets.  A single ticket scooping the pool would
> only have gotten $105,077.

the 50 cent parlay would have been $44,442 -- so getting the whole pool or splitting it amongst two winning tickets would have still paid better than the parlay.  I guess that is the thing -- when you are talking about was it 2,3,4,or 5 tickets that hit -- that is such a small difference with a huge impact and that is the variance that explains the wide discrepancies.

[Boscar Obarra]

late p5 in NY today  was destroyed by someone

quick math

10k parlay  (50c)



and it paid 2k

Was noted before the race by  Serling, but poo pooed as unlikely to mean anything.

Who knows if someone just got \'lucky\' or what.  (getting 20 % of the parlay when it should pay twice, is not what I\'d generally  call lucky)

PS

Just updated my handy dandy totewatcher(c) to include the projected odds for the multis beyond the dd\'s

That winner , off at 7-1,  was 6/5 in the p5, and 10-1 in the p6