Lucy Et .Al.

[TGJB]

Mike, focus-- I\'m not arguing theory with you, we disagree and both know it. I\'m talking specifically about redboarding, and it doesn\'t matter WHAT your handicapping theory is, anyone can post examples after the fact. If you want to make points about the examples you mention, do it before the fact-- afterwards proves zero.

[Mall]

The only thing I know about Philly is that its takeout rates are very high(26% for pk3s, 30% for tris & supers), so the 1st non-TG handicapping step I took was to see what I could find out about the basic charateristics of the track(size,length of stretch,distance to 1st turn,etc), as well as develop a mini-profile of preferred running style & post positions at 9f. I did the same for Monmouth,& then compared the 2 to determine which horses might be expected to run better or worse on Monday.

When the info is available, I will consider 4 or 5 of the most likely pace scenarios, using a Brohamer model,to determine whether & to what extent they increase the liklihood of one or more horses putting in a top effort, & to decide if this is the kind of race which is likely to produce a longshot.

Finally, I will also consider, to a lesser degree, workouts & workout patterns in the context of each individual horse\'s overall pattern & development & what I know about the trainer\'s m.o.

If Monday is anything like today,however, the result of all this work might get diluted in a variety of pk4 & pk3 bets which come up a hair short in the last leg. You knew what you were talking about when you described these bets as the kind that can drive one to drink, a course of action I plan to pursue just as soon as I get up from the keyboard.

[cozzene]

Yo Mall

You are funny.  \"A brohamer model\" \"I will compare MTH to PHA\"; I think you have to much time on your hands.

Read the post, close your eyes, and make the bet.

I always liked Pie. Pecan, Key Lime, Pumpkin, Cherry, and now Prospect.

Your Friend

Cozzene

[Mall]

Shut your pie hole along with your eyes, as I have no intention of making mincemeat of your culinary inspired selection, which has good TG & workout patterns, esp for Zito, & who looks very live at anything close to the ML although, all things considered, Snookie seems a little bit better win bet at 6-1. My pace analysis is different than the ROTW, as there seems to be more than enough early pace in a field in which very few have shown much ability to finish. If you are willing to toss his last race while he was still with a low % trnr, & can somehow put him on the 6/19 race, & are willing to assume the extra distance won\'t change things, Wimplestiltskin, who has never actually finished 1st, has the best late kick in the race. In addition to better nos, Separato has demonstrated a dramatically better closing kick since the switch to Ritchey, & as much as I hate the connections, the better distance, exceptionally strong works, & win at 1st asking are enough to at least raise the possibility that SOTS can run some kind of race off the layoff. I agree with the view that playing Tapit to run out is what makes the race bettable, & if the odds cooperate my plays, despite the confiscatory takeout, will be structured around one or more of these three shots hitting the board at very long odds.