NYRA race of the week Fourstardave

[johnnym]

Let me start by saying I made the switch to NYRA
So far so good my compliments.

1) Fastest # is a 4 gets Tyler and a inside post on the inner turf not a speed horse
A 13% chance new top and Casse never lights up Saratoga
But his recent pattern is win loose win loose so is there a win here?
2) The inside speed horse with a jock who kills it on the front end
Last race was a new top going 4W on the first turn 8% new top
3) 5 yr old mare getting 117 second of the lay-off has won six of last seven gets  the stalking trip
4) His last 5 were GR 1 with one win. 2-2 at Toga. Gets Ortiz. High weight and other just as fast
5) Has ran a 3 and know gets lasix Long way to ship
6) Ran last week won for fun has the fastest # in the race and gets in light
Don’t really like the jock change or the trainers record at the spa
Doubt we see 6-1
7) Dont think he will get the rail saving trip. Has plenty of speed to run at for sure 20-1 and a TG# of 3 definitely puts him in play underneath
Back speed figure of a 2, then all 4s. Will be wide does he run back to his 2?
9) Ran 4th here last year now second of the lay-off trying it again another that gets in light
10) Had a nice patter then hit a YL turf and regressed. Frankels improve a lot from 3-4. Has not won at the spa in 3 tries would like him better inside.

Going with the 6 fastest horse getting weight the jockey switch bothers me hope to see 6-1.
GL
Opinions?

[Mike C]

I agree with much of your analysis, but i worry that with so much development in the past 5 months a bounce is getting more and more likely. I don\'t really know what to make of the short turnaround-Casse\'s record with this timing is about the same as his overall record.  But he is the fastest horse, with a very strong line, so he will probably be my play as well. I think we may be pleasantly surprised about his odds, the 3 and the 4 will be heavily bet.

[Silver Charm]

Casse wheeled Tepin back in a week and she blew away colts in Shadwell then won BC Mile. Not saying this is Tepin but he can be aggressive when he feels like he is seeing something.

The 1 is interesting. Played last two starts. Not sure the boggy going in last was a help for bigger colt. Only 4. Has every reason to improve and is not over raced this year. Derby race was much better comp for him at that time. Could still he in tough but you gotta take a swing. Brown horses will be bet so this one will be a price!!

[richiebee]

I am fairly certain that getting a break in the weights is one reason Barber/Casse
would throw this filly in against males. The weights for this race were announced
the day after GS won the De La Rose.

In any case, my question is, does \"Litle Ricky\" ride anywhere close to 114 pounds?

[grinder]

A turf stakes race with some tight TG #s, so ground saving/loss will be a big deciding factor as always. Dr. Edgar is dead game, doesn\'t need the lead and should save all the ground into the first turn. If the human anchor can give him a decent ride and sit off Gidu\'s early pace, he could get a great trip. He would be a square price at 6-1. I will protect under the #3/#4. Good Luck.

[johnnym]

I agree he is dangerous I actually am a big fan of French on the turf.
Was looking over PP again didn’t realize how far back UNI comes from.
GL

[Silver Charm]

There was a reason he did this. It\'s a pattern. Got killed on that photo for 2nd. Brown drained loads of money at the Spa today.

Now about to take home a brinks truck at AP

[hellersorr]

With all the talk on this thread about Casse deciding to come back on short rest . . . . . . . . it turns out Casse was dead set AGAINST it but the owner insisted.

Lot of guesswork in this game. . . .

[Boscar Obarra]

They used to do it more often back in the day, and with some success.

[Topcat]

Pre-Lasix, yeah.

I\'m not telling anyone anything new here, but: Different game, now.

Saturday\'s was a powerhouse effort -- but I\'d expect a measure of regression, now -- however slight.

[Topcat]

There\'s a certain style of turf horse aboard which JL can shine -- even at the Spa.  But Dr. Edgar doesn\'t quite fit the dream profile.

[grinder]

Yup. Given the 44.3 and 108.1 fractions, the pace dynamics of the race also didn\'t help. That said, it really didn\'t matter as GS was loaded off her previous top from the prior week. Taking a quick look at the top three finishers (at the weights and maybe a 1/2 point of ground between them),it appears that she about paired her last (within a point)?

[johnnym]

108 beyer = about a zero