Suburban

[jerry]

Anyone want to venture a guess on how much went down late on Preservationist to cut his price in half?

[Mathcapper]

FWIW the final price ended up identical to the Will Pays. Having said that, it was indeed a big drop (from 6-1 to 7-2 after they were loaded in the gate). Might not have hurt that Maggie chimed in with big endorsement as they were about to load either.

A note about big late action and Will Pays:

When a horse\'s odds are way out of whack with the corresponding Will Pays in the final minute, it doesn\'t always happen that a big move in the odds will occur that brings the odds into line with the Will Pays. It\'s not like there\'s some computer team(s) out there arbing the win pool and Will Pays, at least from what I\'ve seen (although it may exist to some small degree).

But when you do see the money come in and completely erase a large discrepancy in the lines, it\'s usually a good sign the horse is going to run his race.

When the money doesn\'t come in at all, which happens on occasion (as was the case with one other entry in this field), the opposite is usually true.

As Benter and numerous academic papers have found, the later the money, the smarter it is, with the marginal money in the last minute or so being the most efficient.

The hard part is trying to figure out whose going to take the late action and who isn\'t, which is where the Will Plays can really help. As noted above, horses\' odds don\'t always move into line with the Will Pays in the final flash, but if there\'s a big discrepancy in the final minute, a big move is to be expected much if not most of the time.

[jerry]

I watch the late action in the doubles for just that reason. It’s a pretty reliable tell.

[RICH]

hi mathcapper

I think I am missing something, if the dd pays 266, with the 43.60 winner, doesn\'t that make odds on the will pay 6-1, so precionist was bet down even lower than the will pay, to 7/2?

[skitimber]

About 5-1:

266 - 43.60 = $222.40 in winnings on a $43.60 bet = 5.1 - 1

[Mathcapper]

Not quite sure where you\'re getting that 6-1. Based on a $266 Will Pay and a $43.60 leg 1 winner, after adjusting for takeout that works out to around 4-1.

I think I posted the takeout-adjusted formula on the board somewhere before, but for reference here\'s what it boils down to at NYRA tracks:

Expected $2 Payout = 1.73 x ($2 Will Pay / Leg 1 Winner $2 Payout)

In this case it\'s 1.73 x $267/$43.60 = $10.60, or ~ 4-1.

This isn\'t the best way to calculate it anyway though, for a couple of reasons. One, you don\'t want to just look at the single winner\'s payout from the previous leg, because if that horse\'s win odds were out of alignment with the Will Pays, it will throw off every horse\'s odds in the next leg. And two, you want to avoid using longshot winners in the prior leg because they\'re often overbet, relatively speaking, in the doubles, which will also throw off the estimates.

I use the first few favorites from the prior leg and the entire matrix of double payouts, rather than just the \"quick \'n dirty\" method posted above, to get the best estimates.

In the case of the Suburban, Preservationist was 3.3-1, 3.6-1 and 3.7-1 with the first three favorites from the prior leg, respectively.

[RICH]

thank you