Mike Lee Stakes @ Belmont

Mstrlucky74 · May 26, 2019, 04:38:21 PM

Looms like a 2-3 will get it done here and I think I fee long shots have a chance along with some short priced horses that seem vulnerable.

Fleet Warrior- Hasn\'t went bank but looks to react now and has negative trainer change. Too slow.

Funny Guy- Tough call as one of the fastest coming in and 6-1 ML. Bounced to a 21 off a nice effort and now comes off a huge effort. Have to think this horse will bounce at least 6 pts.

Red Zinger- Looks to had some health issues end of 2yo campaign. Comes out and breaks right through 2yo #\'s which is a good sign. Paired up efforts first two tries and then caught the slop. Coming back quick which seems to indicated he\'s ready. Should run a new top but not much and still too slow.

Durkins Call- Developed quite a bit down to 5 level. Felt the affect of those and reacted badly. Overall pattern is descent and think he\'ll come back to around 6-7 level.

Just Right - Tough call as he\'s coming off matching his 2yo top and pattern looks a bit \"ouchy\". It is Pletcher and I do think he will eek out a new top and run about 4-5.

Frosted Ice- Very fast a 2yo. Came out at 3yo and ran non effort. They are keeping him in staked company which is a good sign. I think not bringing him right back is a bad sign if it was non effort but I still giving him a change and saying he will get back to the 5 at least. Playing to run in the $.

Bankit- Pretty nice pattern and if this horse is healthy he should run a new top today. Chance to hit the board

Le General- Very fast at 2yo. Coming off layoff for good conditioner. Layoff is always a guess but do a expect a big effort.

Blindwillie McTell- Fast horse, never really went back (except for troubled trip) and is lightly races. Could either pair or go back slightly.

Think Frosted Ice and Bankit are live longshots. Good luck.

Tavasco · May 27, 2019, 02:31:53 AM

Thanks to MstrLucky for taking the the time to analyze Labor Days Mike Lee Stakes and posting his opinion.

Since it is Memorial Day and I don\'t know who Mike Lee was I\'d appreciate someone sharing his claim to fame.

What stands out to me is two of the favorites, maybe all three have legitimate early speed. Their race and advantage is to get in front save ground avoid trouble and win races.

Blindwillie McTell from post position #6 appears to me to have a slight advantage both in quickness and starting position. The other quick horse imo, is Stone Breaker out in post #10. This overachiever who started in a $30K MCL for NY statebreds has developed into a competent race horse. don\'t think he loses much ground. But could, if #3 Le General is quicker than I make him. This colt is partially owned by our celebrity pal James Covello along with partner Kallenberg & others. Jim has been associated with quality runners and this could be another. Its just my analysis that he\'ll end up 3rd on the turn.

Pace analysis doctrine would lead us to expect one of the three competitors will survive the pace duel and hit the board. Alternatively @ today\'s 7F the the occasional meltdown is possible where all three speed balls run out of the money. I\'ll ass-u-me that jockey\'s can avoid such foolishness.

I agree with MstrLucky in that I want to find a price horse or two that could bump up the vertical payoff. I\'ll risk letting Bankit or Frosted Ice beating me. I\'ll also toss Funny Guy. By default, the two that I\'ll include in the exacta with the three aforementioned pace factors are Pletcher trainee Just Right and Lucky Billy Mott\'s Durkin\'s Call as most likely to run one of their good races.

What I\'ll contemplate until this afternoon and post time is whether to play a super perfecta with Red Zinger in 4th under the five contenders I\'ve mentioned? The simple logic being at least one of the three pace horses won\'t be around at the finish and one of my two pressers won\'t run well for whatever reason. Tomato can Red Zinger is consistent but slow he\'ll jump up, imo, before he bounces and he\'ll need to here to even get 4th.

FrankD. · May 27, 2019, 02:44:24 AM

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Lee_Stakes

Tavasco · May 27, 2019, 04:03:32 AM

Perfect! Thank you Frank.

cubfan0316 · May 27, 2019, 04:59:57 AM

doesnt answer the question of who he was

joemama · May 27, 2019, 05:30:42 AM

Reading is fundamental.

Tavasco · May 27, 2019, 07:30:45 AM

LMAO

cubfan0316 · May 27, 2019, 09:23:07 AM

guess I missed the part that says who he was. too funny

P-Dub · May 27, 2019, 10:35:31 AM

I always think about this Mike Lee whenever this race comes up

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2004/sep/10/sports-betting-analyst-author-lee-dies/

Tavasco · May 27, 2019, 01:31:38 PM

Unfortunately Red Zinger has scratched and upon a second look I have lost interest in the race. If the M/L holds any overlay is not obvious to me.

Mstrlucky74 · May 27, 2019, 04:42:20 PM

Agreed...odds dipped a bit.

Silver Charm · May 27, 2019, 07:25:45 PM

You did a good job. The track became very speedy as the day went on. The winner was a live and Ortiz rode well today. 3 wins I think and could have had 4 if GE doesnt go to his knees at the break. Nice work. Keep it coming g

Mstrlucky74 · May 28, 2019, 11:16:14 AM

TY!

Tavasco · May 28, 2019, 12:01:20 PM

MstrLucky,

I thought you might get a chuckle out of this. Realizing how we labored over the race and how scratches changes things...The TG analysis got the 15/1 exacta! A reminder that often its best to keep it simple.

And I don\'t think Lezcano should have gone sub :46 on LeGeneral he wasn\'t on Mitole. I\'ll watch to see who rides him next time.