Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19

[Fairmount1]

Quick Quiz Question before I comment on this year\'s Early Stab and before you scroll down to see the answer.  Who ended up the 2nd choice in last year\'s Kentucky Derby in the win pool?  And with that, here are a few comments and my Early Stab for this year.

This is a very, very tough task again this year.  This year I\'ve looked at DRF PP\'s, Bris PP\'s, past years data back to 2000, this year\'s Pool 4 odds, and the latest odds at William Hill. And still the confidence isn\'t great.  I waited until the Smith decision although a prior post last week should have clued you in to my likely favorite with Smith\'s choice.  Other decisions are likely different than most would guess.  To be clear, as I say every year, this is my attempt at guessing what the actual off odds are when the gates open (or another 24 seconds in when the final money is processed into the pools!!)

Last year, a trend that had lasted a long time disappeared as 4 horses went off over 60-1 (first time dating back through 2000 at least that has happened) and 6 horses went off under 10-1 (3rd time dating back through 2000, not counting 2000 when there was a \"field\" type entry).  All that being said, this is how I see it.  (Pre-emptive defense of No. 2=undefeated, trainer who gets bet in big spots as discussed on board past 10 months, and 2 triple figure Beyer figures that will stick out over the field on paper).  

Thanks to Mathcapper who has taught me the effect of breakage and that the morning line points should actually add to 123 based on his calculations.  I have used that number to a T for the attempt this year.  

All that said, tear it to shreds as I say every year.  Last year\'s further below with actual outcome in bold to the right.

1.  Omaha Beach, 3.90-1.
2.  Maximum Security, 5.60-1
3.  Game Winner, 5.80-1
4.  Tacitus, 7.60-1
5.  Roadster, 9.00-1
6.  Improbable, 11.50-1
7.  Vekoma, 15.60-1
8.  Code of Honor, 19.40-1
9.  Win Win Win, 22.80-1
10. By My Standards, 24.00-1
11. Tax, 26.00-1
12. War of Will, 27.50-1
13. Spinoff, 29.00-1
14. Cutting Humor, 36.00-1
15. Long Range Toddy, 39.00-1
16. Country House, 42.40-1
17. Haikal, 46.60-1
18. Plus Que Parfait, 59.60-1
19. Master Fencer, 63.50-1
20. Grey Magician, 82.30-1

______________________________________________________________


Last year\'s Early Stab on 4/17

My Attempt by Rank, Horse, My Off Odds Guess.  In Bold, Actual Rank and Actual Off Odds to the Right.

1.  Justify, 2.90-1.  1st choice, 2.90-1.
2.  Mendohlssen, 5.60-1.  3rd choice, 6.80-1.
3.  Audible, 6.10-1.  4th choice, 7.00-1
4.  Good Magic, 11.50-1. 6th choice, 9.70-1.
5.  Bolt D\'Oro, 12.80-1.  5th choice 8.90-1.
6.  Vino Rossi, 14.60-1.  8th choice, 14.10-1.
7.  Magnum Moon, 17.50-1.  7th choice, 13.70-1.
8.  Hofburg, 18.20-1.  10th choice, 27.00-1.
9.  My Boy Jack, 22.80-1.  2nd choice, 6.70-1.
10. Enticed, 26.00-1.  14th choice, 50.30-1.
11. Gronkowski, 27.00-1.  DID NOT START.
12. Noble Indy, 28.60-1.  15th choice, 59.20-1.
13. Quip, 29.30-1.  DID NOT START.
14. Solomini, 32.30-1.  17th choice, 62.90-1.
15. Promises Fulfilled, 36.00-1.  13th choice, 49.00-1.
16. Flameaway, 37.10-1.  11th choice, 37.50-1.
17. Bravazo, 43.40-1.  18th choice, 66.90-1.
18. Free Drop Billy, 46.60-1.  12th choice, 45.40-1.
19. Firenze Fire, 54.50-1.  16th choice, 59.70-1.
20. Lone Sailor, 57.80-1.  9th choice, 24.50-1.

[Molesap]

Love this - excellent work as always. I have done as much research as you - not even close, but I get the idea that you have Roadster too high as I think he will be close to Game Winner, maybe even at lower offs. I also think Improbable will end up in single digits. I suspect that we will have six horses under 10/1 this year for what the 4th time since 2000. I do think you are spot on with the price on Omaha Beach, and he might gain momentum as we get closer to the day, but 7/2 seems about as low as he goes and having him on the cusp of 4/1 makes sense to me. I think people are going to like the Smith is on him and his tractable speed with quick acceleration when called upon is going to land a number of people in his corner. I think you have Game Winner too low and maybe Maximum Security a tad low, but conversely Roadster and Improbable a bit high. Maximum Security is a tough one with the connections. I agree that his double triple digit Beyers are going to help him attract some mutual pool attention. Plus, didn\'t he get a ton of late action in the Florida Derby? It will be interesting to see how they bet Baffert, but I suspect his lowest odds one will Roadster. Winning the SA Derby with that kind of move is going to impress a number of people and I think some will be put off by Game Winner losing the last two and not quite living up to his name. I think Improbable or Tacitus will be the highest of \"the big six\" but both still might not shade 10/1.

I have not thought much about some of the higher odds horses, so I have no comments there. As always interesting to think about and you have a fairly good historical record - thanks for sharing.

[johnnym]

Nice work:
I think you will see MS odds closer to 10-1 and Roadster being the TMZ horse getting closer to 5-1

I see a lot of similarities between this years Derby and last years as far as odds go.

Lots of talk about how wide open this years Derby is.
I can see results very similar to last years payout wise.

[boardedup]

Awesome stuff... I agree with the thought that BB/Roadster gets pounded on race day.  Shown versatility, beat a big name in one of if not the biggest prep (as it pertains to the derby in recent years atleast) and has BB, TV cameras, Newspaper articles (horse players might be the only sub sect of society that still reads them) and hype in general.  

Omaha Beach crushes the eye test, and that’s likely enough to keep him going off as the fav.  I’m going to continue to hold out hope that the PR/hype machine overlooks this one and he slides.  Pipe dream for sure after AK campaign.  So I guess it’s another year where you need to find some underneath horses.  Interested in thoughts on that from the board for sure...

[boardedup]

So looking at this again, #11-16,18 all should get the distance at 26/1 - 60/1 could do a lot worse underneath for sure. Best betting derby in a bit.

[johnnym]

Shout out to Fairmount
His TG Derby ML got mentioned on the Byk show this Am during the Jon White segment.
Talent on this board never ceases to amaze me.

[Tavasco]

Well more than a week has passed since Fairmount1 posted his first iteration of projected m/l lines on April 16. Let me join the list of those who appreciate his effort.

Now for those out there curious about the significance of said list, let me remind that we need expected prices to discuss, kibbutz and otherwise blow steam about probable overlays.

I like to categorize my overlays into the top three positions. That is, I can consider a horse an overlay to place but not to win and that is mostly a function of running style. I\'m just not gonna include a deep closer in the top spot unless I\'m confident that there will be a pace meltdown or the pace horses can\'t get the distance.

So who are the overlays in the top slot the Win position per Fairmount1\'s current list. How far down the list need we go to get an overlay. Last year for example the only win overlay on my list was Magnum Moon I was wrong and haven\'t seen him since I keyed him? LOL

#07 Vekoma @ a projected 15/1 I consider an overlay estimating the probability of winning at roughly 10% 1/10
#12 War of Will @ 27/1 would be another with about the same chance imo.
They also qualify as overlays in the more minor placings.

The more I consider under in the tri & super the more I\'m drawn to improbable @ 11/1. I fancy precision and most will spread much more than I will without regard to under/over/lay. With these pools why not? Just a bit curious about who is liking who.

[Gerard]

Will be using War of Will as well. Thinking his odds may drift lower if his final workout is strong, maybe closer to 20-1 similar to AKs action in 2011.

Mike Welsch thinks Cutting Humor looks the better of the two Pletcher\'s right now. I\'ll be using him on more than a few tickets. The Sunland number is a little light, but the place finisher moved forward a point in the Lexington and if CH can move forward a couple on the extra rest, thinking he can be competitive. Anothertwistafate took some money in pool 4 of the futures and will probably be bet in the Preakness. While the finish in the Sunland was impressive, he never got past CH after the wire. Drawing a line through the Southwest start as CH had Mike Tyson next to him for the first quarter or so. JV bailing on the Pletchers\'s is not a positive, but that\'s why you look to get paid.

[RICH]

there is something on that other pletcher horse that intrigues me, with a good post and some pace, I can see him sneaking in at nice odds

[Fairmount1]

For those interested in how this turned out. Not a horrible effort that far out especially with the loss of Omaha Beach.  I\'d call War of Will the \"wiseguy\" horse as he really gathered steam with his works and you could see he would be lower than my original guess.  I\'m still quite surprised how low Improbable ended up.  Did anyone else see that one coming?  Or was that a result of the wet weather in the final hour or two?

Left side, My original guess.  Right side in Bold, actual rank and odds in win pool.

1. Omaha Beach, 3.90-1. SCRATCHED.  Lost 20.2 points of 123
2. Maximum Security, 5.60-1 2nd choice, 4.50-1.
3. Game Winner, 5.80-1 4th choice, 6.80-1
4. Tacitus, 7.60-1 3rd choice, 5.80-1
5. Roadster, 9.00-1 5th choice 11.60-1
6. Improbable, 11.50-1 Favorite, 4.00-1
7. Vekoma, 15.60-1 8th choice, 16.80-1
8. Code of Honor, 19.40-1 6th choice, 14.40-1
9. Win Win Win, 22.80-1 16.80-1, 9th choice
10. By My Standards, 24.00-1 10th choice, 18.80-1
11. Tax, 26.00-1 13th choice, 35.50-1
12. War of Will, 27.50-1, 7th choice 16.70-1
13. Spinoff, 29.00-1, 14th choice 52.30-1
14. Cutting Humor, 36.00-1, 11th choice, 24.10-1
15. Long Range Toddy, 39.00-1, 15th choice 54.80-1
16. Country House, 42.40-1, 18th choice, 65.20-1
17. Haikal, 46.60-1 SCRATCHED, Lost 2.1 points of 123
18. Plus Que Parfait, 59.60-1, 16th choice, 57.10-1
19. Master Fencer, 63.50-1, 17th choice, 58.60-1
20. Grey Magician, 82.30-1, 12th choice, 33.80-1

[atakante]

Think Improbable took most of the OB money as he was just half a length behind the early favorite on a sloppy track in a race that produced Derby winners.  Santa Anita Derby produced confusing signals and seems most people didn\'t buy into Roadster being that good after what seemed a great ground-saving ride that\'s hard to replicate in the Derby.