Bellafina Romps In Kentucky Oaks?

[Agastache]

Not a lot of talk about the \"other big race\" this week and there\'s probably good reason for it. I find the race very confusing and am anxiously awaiting the seminar to help clear things up.

From my limited knowledge of sheet reading- Bellafina looks like the one most likely to win the race- with the big 2 year old top, exceeding the top, getting the bounce out of the way, and returning to the top. But, I assume there are reasons to bet against her as the favorite- that Breeders\' Cup debacle last fall and the bo/bi that accompanies her figs.

With that said, nothing sticks out behind her. Restless Rider looked like a filly that was ready to move forward, but she draws the 14 hole. After that, this field looks about as average as any Oaks field ever assembled.

Why is Baffert running Flor de la Mar? Is she getting ready to make an Arrogate-like move forward on Friday? Champagne Anyone is supposedly working well, but she\'s on the slow side.

Chocolate Kisses intrigues me a bit as it looks like there\'s no way to avoid a fast pace with Motion Emotion winging it early and Serengeti Empress in hot pursuit from the 13 hole. \'Kisses\' ran a nice fig at Oaklawn and then bounced hard, but has had several weeks since the big OP number. Her lineage is stellar, gets pace setup, and it wouldn\'t be that much of a stretch to see her squeeze out a new top by 1 point or so with the right trip. Speaking of trips- everybody craps on Leparoux, but he knows how to time the finish line.

Help?

[BitPlayer]

For what it\'s worth, Gary Stevens mentioned on the NYRA/Fox broadcasts over the weekend that Bellafina was in heat for the Breeders Cup race.

[toppled]

She sure looks like the fastest horse but every time she has run a new top or paired her prior top she has regressed around 4 points, then in her next race she goes back to the fast numbers.  So the dilemma is which filly are we getting-the fastest one in the field or the habitual bouncer?  Since she matched her prior top in her last, is she going to bounce the 3.5 to 4.5 points like she\'s done 3 times or will she finally pair the big # or move forward in back to back races for the 1st time ever in her career? That\'s the thing that\'s driving a lot of us nuts about her. Her Thoro-Pattern is 60% to pair or move forward and 40% to bounce, it\'s a little too close for me to feel comfortable that I can go all in on her in Oaks/Derby DD.

[Mike C]

That would scare me from betting on her as the favorite, although even if she backs up a few points, she could still be the fastest. I will try to beat her with a longshot...Liora?, Chocolate Kisses?

[toppled]

Steve Byk is saying Bellafina looks ragged.  Is anyone out there who has seen her who can either confirm or dispute what he\'s saying?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jake Ballis of Black Type Thoroughbred said same thing on Players podcast...see it on XBTV

[sekrah_]

RR looks like a standout play to me.  Even with the ground loss.