I Downloaded The Oaks Derby Package Today

[Silver Charm]

Glad I did. This is one of the toughest Derbys EVER. I TGJB got Arkansas Derby right and Beyer has it too slow. That said it was on a very wet track so I\'m not sure what it means. Unless the Derby is wet.

There are a lot of horses sitting on New Tops. Tje question will they get a clean trip. 50-50 they do in Derby and have the mental toughness to handle the stampede. 50-50 there too.

I like my horse so far. Nothing to shift me off in the 2 Figs I saw. There wont be a Tiole Crown Winner. This is a good crop and they are pretty even

[johnnym]

Agreed I got it narrowed down to 8 that could win it.
GL

[toppled]

I have it down to 4, as always the caveat is we don\'t know post positions, haven\'t had the important workouts, and don\'t have the track condition (the only way I\'ll consider the favorite Omaha Beach is on an off track):
Tacitus, Game Winner, Tax & Vekoma.  The only reason I\'m throwing in Vekoma is because both on BRIS & DRF\'s Timeform pace ratings it looks like he could get loose on the lead.  
One of the things I ask myself before the Derby is, if I\'m looking back at the end of the year, is it obvious that xxx was the best 3yo this year & am I regretting not seeing the obvious before the Derby, when it\'s obvious in December.  The only 2 horses I can make that case for are Tacitus & Game Winner.  To me, Tacitus is the best bred horse in the race and has done nothing wrong as a 3yo on Lasix.  There are 4 with faster tops going in, but I think he can improve more since this is only his 3rd race of the year and he\'s never gone backwards.  On a sheer sheet reading I love the sheet on Game Winner, and nobody can get a horse to peak on Derby day better than Baffert especially when the horse already has a very solid foundation. I\'ll be playing exotics with those 2 in the win spot & Tax finishing in the top 4.

[boardedup]

I feel comfortable, even without the benifit of post positions, in saying Vecoma won’t get lose on the lead.  Not to say I’m tossing him completely, he seems to try super hard every time he loads, time will tell if he can get the distance though.

Tacitus’s two preps, especially his Wood, looks better and better every time I watch it.  And as of late, these long standing Derby truth’s, like auto toss on top if never raced at two, have fallen by the wayside.  The Wood drought could be the next to fall?  I like Tax out of that race as well, but I think OB is much more than a “mudder.”  Though admittedly I will like him less as the favorite if that comes to pass.  While the number of horses who can win might be ~4 imo, (I’ve yet to listen to the seminar, holding out a few more days) I feel like (well) over half the field could hit the super.

Should be a phenomenal betting race.  The polar opposite of a great betting race was the SA Derby ( if I recall a $10 Super paid ~$230). But curious as how guys are treating that race?  Slow different surface, Roadster’s move, Game Winner doing the dirty work up front putting away Instagrand while running wide, but getting caught late by a horse that needed the points.  The strange reaction of BB when he seemingly got the perfect scenario?  I don’t know what to do w any of the Baffert’s yet ( Improbable running second twice as well?)  Was Roadster tighter than Game Winner?  Game Winner’s grindy style feels more Belmont than Derby, but it seems no one has jumped off his ship and allegedly has as nice a sheet as any entered?  I just wish I knew what the game plan was for the SA Derby?

A few other questions, did LRT bounce to the moon or just hate the off track that day? Both?  Is Maximum Security truely special, will he have the Hollywood script type moment?  What about the FL form as a whole?  30-1+ on TAP?  What’s up w that and can you pass on that kind of price even if it is “Pletcher in the derby?”

So much to iron out still, I guess I should download the seminar sooner than later...

[Silver Charm]

All good questions. There is also no Bo Bi on Tacitus in his Wood effort. Also is that Thoro-Pattern on him right? WTF?? Four career starts none shorter than a mile!!

Same goes for Game Winner and his ThoroPattern. Baffert not as great 3rd off Layoff so does the 3 races in 7 weeks hurt? I kinda think it does.

War of Will? That old school pattern has worked before. And a half to Tacticus. Not to be confused with Tacitus. If you\'re not confused already :-)

[wrongly1]

Jerry, from Twitter I see that the Sheet has Tacitus regressing from a 6 to a 6 1/4 while TG has that one making a strong forward move.  Care to comment on the difference in views?

[bluechip21]

War of Will is a head scratcher. What is the old school pattern you’re referring to? Is it the clunker in the LA Derby that was preceded by two competitive numbers? I wish I knew what happened to him that day, and the severity of it. Call me crazy but I never take a trainer’s words at face value.

[Silver Charm]

There was/is an Old Sheet Theory pattern of 3YO in the Spring will fire 2 Good Ones then a Bad One and then run The Race of Their Life

Jerry Brown used this angle to call for an ALL IN PLAY on Thunder Gulch ($50.00) in handicapping OP-Ed written in the Derby Day DRF and gave a Full Steam tri key with Timber Country and McPeek/Bailey underneath. A score only rivaled by his Multi 6 Figure Super Score with Big Brown on Top.And when another Novice Handicapper went on a Derby Radio Show and called for Bet Your Mortgage Play on Silver Charm-Captain Bodget-Free House with Blushing KD in the Oaks COLD

[jbelfior]

Any opinions on a turf horse feeling the effects of two bang up efforts on the dirt?

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

The Thunder Gulch part was right, not the Big Brown.

[TGJB]

Jake had the Tampa race much faster than us. I reviewed it the other day, we had the track getting faster and we’re right, based on not only that day but what the whole field (except the winner) has done since. The difference was first brought to my attention by a big name trainer with a horse in the race who asked me to check their work, I told him it was wrong and why.

[wrongly1]

Thank you JB.