Mike Smith picks OMAHA BEACH

[dglass2232]

Mike knows what he has under him when he rides these horses. If the two are even close in talent, he  picks ROADSTER right?

[boardedup]

Would certainly think so

[toppled]

Looking at the sheets I think he was literally in a no win situation.  Roadster\'s top is in the lower half of the 20 horse field (near the top of the bottom 10, but still too many faster horses) and Omaha Beach is a big bounce candidate off a 4.5 point jump up in the Ark. Derby. So it made more sense to take the faster horse & hope Mandella can limit the bounce since Omaha comes in as the fastest horse in the race although the combination of the big forward move, the chance he\'s a mud lover, Mandella\'s 1/15 record at CD & only 3 weeks rest gives me a good reason to think he\'s going to bounce to the moon. Now if the track is off, I\'ll have to reconsider since I do believe he moves up on a wet track.

[JimP]

So you’re saying that neither Omaha Beach nor Roadster have any chance to win. That’s what “literally a no win situation” would be. Seems a little extreme. Is that literally what you meant to say?

[johnnym]

According to thoro pattern he has a 44% chance of a new top and a 25% to pair.

According to Trainer stats after a new top by 1Pt he has a 19% new top and a 41% of a pair.

At CD he doesn’t do all that great either

[boardedup]

7/10 shot at running fast enough to matter is pretty strong right?  What am I missing?

[johnnym]

My point.
If this horse was with Pletcher easy toss.
Smith knows what he has and so does Mandella.
May be the last time you see these odds on him.

[toppled]

Absolutely. Although I think they each have between a 5-10% chance of winning which is no better than a random result, so no chance is pretty close to my thinking. You have interpreted my comments correctly.  Roadster-too slow would have to have a new top that leapfrogs half the field.  Omaha Beach-I\'m expecting a big bounce & I\'m still not convinced he\'s a different horse on a dry track.

[toppled]

After Always Dreaming busted my theory in 2017, I didn\'t update this last year, but overall I\'m still a believer & this year the only horse who jumped up and \"qualifies\" is Omaha Beach with a 4.5 point jump up from his prior top. This analysis now covers the last 21 Derbies.  

Overall there have been 36 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 3 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. The other two were Always Dreaming in 2017 and Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 32 hit the board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the super. In 2016 year we did not have Lani\'s early races, so the data was incomplete as to whether he had a 4+ point jump up, but he\'s included in the study. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 32 of 36 regressed.

2018
9th, 4.50, 2.75
20th, 10.00, 33.00

2017
1st 5.5, improved 1.00
10th 4.00, 7.00
11th 4.00, 4.25
18th, 6.50, 16.25

2016
6th, 7.75, 2.75
9th, 4.5 (incomplete data), improved 2.25
16th 4.75, 9.00

2015
17th,5.25,16

2014
4th,7.75,2.5
6th,6,1.75
8th, 7,4.25

2013
9th, 4.5,4.0

(none the years 2011-2012)

2010
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.75,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25

2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50

2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50

2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00

2004
14th,4.75,7.25

2003
14th,6.00,9.75

2002
14th,4.00,7.00

2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75

1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50

1998
11th,5.25,14.00

[jbrown007]

So 11/36 bounced 3 points or less. 3/36 won the derby. 60% of those probably had no shot in the first place. You mention that Big brown ran a 1 so he was already fast. Omaha ran a 2. Omaha didn’t run on dirt for his first three races so we don’t really have accurate numbers for him. If he bounces to a 0 with his tactical running style he could still beat this group. Has a hall of fame trainer. I think you are wasting your time with these stats. If you want stats TGJB has stats. Mandella has plenty of horses with similar patterns and how do they typically runs? TOPS