ROTW

[BitPlayer]

I think that puts him in the lead in two-turn Beyer clubhouse.  While the figure may be right, there are certainly questions about how predictive it will prove.  Gulfstream seemed to be speed-friendly yesterday, and Maximum Security was allowed to set relatively slow fractions.

How late did Maximum Security get bet?  I had him at 7-1 off the doubles, and he was about that in the early betting.

[johnnym]

Slow fractions perhaps, but I’ll take 24 quarters all day over fast early slow late. Especially stretching out and more weight.

[Mathcapper]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think that puts him in the lead in two-turn
> Beyer clubhouse.  While the figure may be right,
> there are certainly questions about how predictive
> it will prove.  Gulfstream seemed to be
> speed-friendly yesterday, and Maximum Security was
> allowed to set relatively slow fractions.
>
> How late did Maximum Security get bet?  I had him
> at 7-1 off the doubles, and he was about that in
> the early betting.

It came in right at the last minute. He was 6-1 just as the horses were about to enter the gate, then dropped to 9/2 in the next flash.

The drop was interesting from several aspects:

(1) It was a significant drop, especially considering the size of the win pool (you don’t often see moves like that in big events like this).
(2) Every other horse in the field drifted higher in the last flash with the exception of Union’s Destiny, a longshot whose odds dropped modestly (42-1 to 36-1, basically just noise).
(3) He dropped well below his 7-1 Will Pays odds at the last minute rather than drifting slightly upwards towards those implied odds as would have been expected.

Agree on the question of how much to read into his performance going forward.

To my mind, this was another race that hinged on how the pace played out. The question going in was whether it was going to be a hot pace, with Hidden Scroll and the stretching sprinters -- Max Security and the two cheaper ones (Hard Belle, Bodexpress) -- all vying for the lead.

This was an especially intriguing question considering the scuttlebutt around Hidden Scroll and whether they were working to try to get him to rate, most likely because of what happened in the FOY, even though he was clearly the main speed in this race, breaking from the rail, and with three stone-cold closers (Current, Wallbanger, Bourbon War) to his immediate outside.

The entire complexion of the race changed when Hidden Scroll did in fact end up rating. And when the two longshot stretching sprinters weren’t hell-bent on the lead either, that left Max Security on the lead at a comfortable pace. #serviswithasmile

Once the half went up in 48.98 (and the quarter in 24.42), the race was all but over. The deepest closers (ie. Bourbon War) were the most compromised - there was no way they were going to be able to close into that kind of leisurely pace and make up ground on a frontrunner like Max Security who has a faster turn-of-foot and plenty left in the tank.

Hidden Scroll’s performance is tougher to gage going forward. Perhaps he fell victim to what seems to happen to so many horses when you take them out of their game and try to change their natural running style. Or maybe that -2(neg) debut in the slop was too taxing. Or maybe he just freaked in the slop that day (as many horses sometimes do, often inexplicably), and he really isn’t as good as that promising debut effort suggested.

[Ace]

Redboard room comment:  Distracted by Dubai and Gulfstream on Saturday, and only buying the Dubai TG special, what did I miss at Santa Anita?  Only that the TG Santa Anita analysis had ON TOP the $44.80 winner of the 4th, the $21.20 winner of the 5th (that double only paid you $279.20 for two bucks, and that early Pick 5 paid over $13.6k!) and recommended using the $24.20 winner in the 9th in multi-race wagers. So I regret not buying that SA product and not looking at those races, and will give TG a pass on the free  ROTW because I read that race the same way and that FL Derby will ultimately go down as a fluke in my opinion with those pedestrian fractions you don\'t often see in a G1.

[ajkreider]

Thinking about the idea that he paired. If he did*:

1. You have a lightly raced horse coming off of paired 0s with 5 weeks rest.

2. A lightly raced maiden coming off of a 9-4-1 pattern.

3. Another horse that paired his 3, which was his 2 year old top.

4. Another horse with a slight move forward after reacting off of his 1.


All of these look like positive patterns, no?  And they all look like they have the number power to make some noise in May (assuming they all get in).

* Adjusting a bit for ground loss.  Trakus has the superfecta also-rans as running 26/30/25 feet farther, respectively.

[Tavasco]

Enough time has now passed for me to look back upon last Saturday\'s FL Derby and reflect upon any thoughts I had or forgot to consider before the race. Further, what information can be considered relevant from the race itself.

Generally, prior to the race, I thought factors other than speed figures would have a significant influence on the outcome of the race. These colts after all are not established performers. They are adolescents growing, learning and developing into race horses. Essentially, I thought some form of industry iconage (sic) would lead to the performers. Without really thinking my intuition through I focused on ownership and trainer.

#1 Hidden Scroll. Many were suspect of his huge first race because of the wet possibly sealed surface on that occasion. Balanced by the facts we mostly trust both the trainer and jockey. What I forgot was when a race horse runs off and distances itself from the field sometimes (often enough to matter) the speed figure earned doesn\'t reflect how the horse will handle the mental aspect of competing. Bottom Line - over rated. Likely to be rested and brought back this summer destined to forever be an underlay.

#2 Current. I posted in TAP we trust. If I draw a line through his Dec race @ CD and assume his FL Derby was a pair, possible a new top this typically late developing Curlin colt c/b a Belmont Stakes candidate.

#3 Harvey Wallbanger. HARVEY WALLBANGER brushed with CURRENT and was off a step slow, raced well back three wide early, moved further out around the far turn and failed to menace. Draw a line thru this effort remember horse with a deep closing running style encounter trouble more often than others. He looks to be one best off a rest no previous evidence of improving while racing?

#4 Bourbon War. IMO, more evidence that the Remsen is overrated year after year. BOURBON WAR was unhurried early in the two-path, raced three then four wide around the far turn, and improved position without a solid bid. Sounds like the description of a good plodder. I think it can be argued that running the TG 1 in the GP Alw will take some more recovery time. NCIS Rule #11, Never bet a Hennig trainee if the spotlight is on it.

#5 Everfast. Somewhat of an alternator by pattern but seemingly not sturdy. Newly popular rider Landeros, rode as if he were a contender he was not. Another who will probably get some rest before reappearing in KY vs lesser.

#6 Hard Belle. UGH! Like, I think it was TGJB, mentioned recently, the best way to get a good table for lunch.

#7 Maximum Security. None s/b shocked this one won the race. But for the colt to be co favorite to win the KY Derby might be an over reaction. His win Saturday was not as surprising as his sire New Years Day, win in the BC Juvenile in what 2013? Simple faster than most with a healthy improving line. No need to cloud things up by arguing he was going two turns for the first time. Failing to realize that Hidden Scroll might not be a pace factor was a costly oversight.

#8 Bodexpress. Once again, too much weight attributed to class. The overlooked key here for me was a son of Bodemeister not a sprint influence runs a top in a sprint could be expected to pair or improve at a route especially when you note that it was Hidden Scroll who smoked him in the wet at his 1st effort at a mile. Add in he was 70/1. Absolutely irrelevant that he is a maiden. Every season a couple of maidens jump up in the Derby preps keying healthy scores. It disappoints me that I landed on the wrong long shot. Going forward, my assessment is that its about 60/40 that the effort triggers a bounce but with a trainer sure to be discounted and a price likely to hold up he will be on my Derby tickets.

#9 Code of Honor. CODE OF HONOR bumped with UNION\'S DESTINY at the start, advanced moving in from the three-path after six furlongs, was in a full drive cutting the corner past the quarter-pole, shied out sharply from left-hand pressure outside the sixteenth-pole swapping leads back and forth, and held for the show. Not the first time this colt has done some bumping at the start or ran erratically in the stretch. I don\'t know what to make of that but JR didn\'t lose to much ground. I\'m assuming he earned something close to a pair of his top. I still value the Galileo influence and think the colt has an upside.

#10 Union\'s Destiny. A regression after his previous jump up wasn\'t surprising. All in all, it turned out not to be the right race for this one. The optimism of the connections is somewhat understandable and I\'m a fan of sire Union Rags. I put him in my horses to watch looking forward to his next or next next outing.

#11 Garter and Tie. As disappointed as I was with the jockey in the Holy Bull I was even more disappointed in the FL Derby. Bottom line - I was wrong the colt did not improve as I thought his line suggested.  GARTER AND TIE raced widest early, remained well out in the track driven hard past the three-eighths,and had nothing left soon after that. As a pace handicapping aficionado It pains me the jockey took a colt with a P running style and attended the pace albeit modest. I continue to believe that this colt is better than its last two races. Classic contender he\'s NOT.

As has been pointed out previously - Class handicapping is considered dubious by many, especially on this site. MCL 16K vs MSW 80K, or winners vs non winners meaningful distinctions in general but in the end, if you take the time, details i.e. specifics are key to finding treasure.