History Keeps Repeating Itself

[Silver Charm]

Had to miss last weekends race at FG because I was attending March Madness. Watched the replays of the La Derby and FG Oaks and once again the horse who rode the rail won. Rail trips are taking down every 3YO race this Spring. Some years it\'s been all early speed.

The pattern here tells me there is not that much difference in this group. Bafferts two horses might be the exception because they were wide and barely got beat. But the fact is they were 2 and 3 to 5 and lost.

So here we have the Florida Derby and Code of Honor drew outside and Hidden Scroll inside. Is Hidden Scroll a rank runoff type or green. It\'s a good field. A good betting Card.

[johnnym]

I do not see how you can honestly handicap HS with any confidence?

[boardedup]

There’s no speed to contend with this time plus he’s on the rail.  He’s supposed to win this race, imo

[johnnym]

I disagree about the speed you may have  3 other horses who may be there.
Also he has been getting trained to rate in the AM sitting behind horse’s.
Now he pulls the rail.
He had a 6 pt reaction to his opening figure if that first figure is accurate.
So is he a 0-2-X? Lots of ways that pattern can go
To make a Maiden a GR 1 favorite? I just don’t see Justify type of history two years in a row.
GL

[boardedup]

I think he’s considerably faster than anyone else entered, if they “give” him the lead he should be able to relax on the front end and have plenty left coming home.  It’s a matter of whether he gets the distance (I think he does).  If others are sent hopefully the training pays off, he saves ground right behind the leader(s) and pounces.  The jockey change should help put him in the best possible position, then it’s a matter of whether he’s good enough (I think he is.

But he should work out a pretty perfect trip assuming he gets out of the gate clean, which in fairness didn’t happen last time and likely played a roll in him going on the dead send like that.   I’m willing to give him another shot, likely on top of some prices maybe 3, 11 & also 9, atleast that’s how I’m looking at it today. Prob a lot diffferent by post..

[boardedup]

Still not sure why they decided to sit behind horses and eat dirt the entire race?  Controlling speed, rail, oh well.  He showed little to nothing in the stretch regardless.  Maybe he’s not that good, but it would have been nice to find out with the useage of his best attributes as opposed to whatever that was Saturday.