Elkhorn -- ROTW

[Socalman3]

Well, looks like I am going to jinx myself again.

First off, thank you to TG for a great race of the week.  Really really chewy race.

Agree that Oscar Nominated runs the most consistent efforts and with an decent trip hard to imagine him not needing to be on tickets (Although Rosario has made me tear my hair out before).

The horse that interests me the most in the race and who I am going to use as a co-key with Oscar Nominated is Canessar.

This is really a pattern play, but to me an exceptionally strong pattern play.

First off, you have a horse trying a mile and a half off a layoff.  That is a big question, but look at this horse\'s history off layoffs -- from 2yo year to 3yo year, from 3yo year to 4 yo year, from europe to Maryland.  Every time horse moves forward.

With the exception of the outside horse, this horse is the most lightly raced horse in the race, and in general the horse just has a steady forward moving developmental pattern.  Only bounce was off a lifetime top jump up first lasix late in season.  Totally excusable bounce.

Arguably, this horse is coming into this race off a 0-2-X (it is a 0-2-6months off -- but that is close to being a 0-2-X)

Also, I like this horse\'s european form.....his last 5 races in Europe were all in races longer that 12 panels and he was taking the lead and getting caught....so the Laurel first lasix lifetime top was also shortening up in distance.  His last three european races were 5s at either 14 or 15 panels where he was leading.  in my view, those numbers need to be treated like they are even better when you think he is getting a quarter of a mile or more less distance today.  If any of the other horses in this race were running 14 or 15 furlongs, I doubt they could have done as well as he did (and it was without lasix).

I also find his workout pattern very intriguing.  HAs anybody ever seen a horse with 3 workouts in 8 days?  look at his last three at Tampa.  Very interesting.  The turf work around the dogs on this surface looks good too.  Have to think Trainer is pointing to this race.

Finally, this is a horse that is usually well backed.  His longest odds in his career was in a G2 against the future Breeders Cup Turf winner where he was 6-1.  He was the favorite out of 12 horses in the autumn version of this race last out.  If he was favorite there, I do not see what he has done since then to justify morning line odds of 15-1.

Again, given this opus, I have probably stuck a fork in this horse, but I am going to put my money where my keyboard is and go down with this ship.

[Tavasco]

Another myth ruined. I had decided that a horse who got the same number 4 or 5 or 6 times in a row was not going to improve. Maybe go back and in the future rcover to a new top when older or healthier.

Nobody told us about #7 One Go All Go. Even though the Rags pattern is different he wasn\'t obvious to them either.

[Socalman3]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Another myth ruined. I had decided that a horse
> who got the same number 4 or 5 or 6 times in a row
> was not going to improve. Maybe go back and in the
> future rcover to a new top when older or
> healthier.
>
> Nobody told us about #7 One Go All Go. Even though
> the Rags pattern is different he wasn\'t obvious to
> them either.

One Go All Go could have run his usual number.  He was 1w1w1w.  Oscar Nominated suffered what appeared to be unnecessary ground loss and almost certainly ran a better figure than the winner did.  That was my view.

[TreadHead]

RIP Bullards Alley, hind fracture during race

[FrankD.]

Tavasco,

The repetitive number is somewhat of an ongoing debate with TGAB and myself for a number of Spa meets. Most not all great, good or so so ones breakthrough at some point during their 3-4 year old seasons. This one broke through to 4.5 as a 4 yr old. It has been his high water mark and one can assume his level of how fast he will get ever.... Until today, very pedestrian fractions on a course known for closers but for whatever reasons, certainly not blazing sunshine the Keeneland  grass course has carried speed exceptionally well this meet. I’m not looking for a repeat of a 6yr old top next out.

The 3-4 yr old breakthrough is validated, most will, the question is when? TGAB is an exceptional reader of patterns and I will drive him nuts year after year tossing in a random sometimes bomb because he has yet to breakthrough a number and today he might. In a horizontal sequence, with odds, IMHO they are worth a throw in at 3-4, NOT 6......

The Rosario/ LePeroux worst ride of the day award without doubt goes to Jose Ortiz in the 6th on Love Sick Kitten......

[FrankD.]

5th at Keeneland today Soglio for an ice cold Maker at this meet.
Same number 6 of last 7 heats for Motion  & Maker, 2nd start as a 4 yr old, last was on a yielding course. OH but there is a Chad in the heat!

He only needs to breakthrough a point or 2.......

[Tavasco]

Found him. 5th entrant 8th race.

I\'ll watch with curiousity. I\'m pretty certain if I were to bet him he\'d X.

Does anyone know if the trainer of #10 Glad Moon is the Michael Dickinson who is a former steeplechaser or young guy DrBilly touted last week?

[Socalman3]

Socalman3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, looks like I am going to jinx myself again.
>
> First off, thank you to TG for a great race of the
> week.  Really really chewy race.
>
> Agree that Oscar Nominated runs the most
> consistent efforts and with an decent trip hard to
> imagine him not needing to be on tickets (Although
> Rosario has made me tear my hair out before).
>
> The horse that interests me the most in the race
> and who I am going to use as a co-key with Oscar
> Nominated is Canessar.
>
> This is really a pattern play, but to me an
> exceptionally strong pattern play.
>
> First off, you have a horse trying a mile and a
> half off a layoff.  That is a big question, but
> look at this horse\'s history off layoffs -- from
> 2yo year to 3yo year, from 3yo year to 4 yo year,
> from europe to Maryland.  Every time horse moves
> forward.
>
> With the exception of the outside horse, this
> horse is the most lightly raced horse in the race,
> and in general the horse just has a steady forward
> moving developmental pattern.  Only bounce was off
> a lifetime top jump up first lasix late in season.
>  Totally excusable bounce.
>
> Arguably, this horse is coming into this race off
> a 0-2-X (it is a 0-2-6months off -- but that is
> close to being a 0-2-X)
>
> Also, I like this horse\'s european form.....his
> last 5 races in Europe were all in races longer
> that 12 panels and he was taking the lead and
> getting caught....so the Laurel first lasix
> lifetime top was also shortening up in distance.
> His last three european races were 5s at either 14
> or 15 panels where he was leading.  in my view,
> those numbers need to be treated like they are
> even better when you think he is getting a quarter
> of a mile or more less distance today.  If any of
> the other horses in this race were running 14 or
> 15 furlongs, I doubt they could have done as well
> as he did (and it was without lasix).
>
> I also find his workout pattern very intriguing.
> HAs anybody ever seen a horse with 3 workouts in 8
> days?  look at his last three at Tampa.  Very
> interesting.  The turf work around the dogs on
> this surface looks good too.  Have to think
> Trainer is pointing to this race.
>
> Finally, this is a horse that is usually well
> backed.  His longest odds in his career was in a
> G2 against the future Breeders Cup Turf winner
> where he was 6-1.  He was the favorite out of 12
> horses in the autumn version of this race last
> out.  If he was favorite there, I do not see what
> he has done since then to justify morning line
> odds of 15-1.
>
> Again, given this opus, I have probably stuck a
> fork in this horse, but I am going to put my money
> where my keyboard is and go down with this ship.


I was sure wrong when I wrote about this horse back in April.  Going back to the well again today.  Maybe this time is the right time.

[hellersorr]

You weren\'t wrong in April.  The horse had an impossible trip.