Average Winning Distance

[richiebee]

This was published in DRF prior to the Kentucky Derby. The article discusses
using the Average Winning Distance of sires, dams and their produce to identify
runners who will (or should) get the Derby distance.

I am imagining the same methodology might be helpful in the Belmont; unfortunately
none of the new shooters in the Belmont are covered here, except to the extent
that their sires were included in the Derby study. Do not know if DRF will revisit
this before the Belmont Stakes.

Note that the statistics had Instilled Regard, by Arch, as being right at the top
of the list of Derby runners most likely to succeed at the distance; IR was the
runner who added spice to the Derby super.


http://www.drf.com/news/average-winning-distance-tool-unearthing-longshots

[johnnym]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/5_keys_to_a_winning_bet_on_the_2018_Belmont_Stakes_123


Look at point #2

[Kasept]

Looked at this yesterday as it happens..

Tenfold: Curlin 7.5/Tapit (Temptress) 7.6
Gronkowski: Lonhro 6.8/Lookin At Lucky (Four Sugars) 7.5
Restoring Hope: Giant\'s Causeway 8.1/Tapit (Symbol of Freedom) 7.6
Seahenge: Scat Daddy 6.9/Not For Love (Fools  in Love) 6.5
Bandua: The Factor 6.7/Seattle Slew! (If Angels Sang) 7.7

[big18741]

Tapit on top has been lethal in this race.

6-3-1-1-0

Tapwrit winner new top
Creator winner pair up
Lani 3rd with the best figure
Frosted 2nd -off race after back to back negative #\'s
Tonalist winner new top
Matterhorn off the board 8th paired up at 40-1

Restoring Hope is an interesting one paced type to stay for a piece with the slower pace expected.

[BitPlayer]

I think that, for the dam side, the Bris methodology is different from that used in the DRF article.  The DRF used the dam\'s offspring, which results in a very small sample size, but is consistent with the idea that the female bloodline has more genetic impact on stamina than the male side.  (I don\'t know whether evidence supports this hypothesis.) Bris uses the AWD of the offspring of dam\'s sire.