Bel R9

[drbillym]

My Lightnin Strike is 15/1 M/L and has a competitive number two races back on the dirt, whereas today is on the turf.  As I am not well versed in sheetology, I have two questions for seasoned sheet players:  1)  Is there any firm guidance for transferring TG numbers when there is a surface switch, or is it mostly a breeding factor  2)  I have noticed that a maiden win, particularly by open lengths, often produces a high beyer figure, never to be replicated.  Any guidance on how TG numbers on a maiden win can relate to future clm or alw races.

We know she is ok on the turf, and hope to sit off the 8 and cruise by in the stretch.

[Mike C]

I agree that My Lightnin Strike has a competitive number, but it is the only one. All of his other races are at least 5 pts slower. And the competitive figure is a 7 pt new top from his 2 year old year, and its on the dirt.
Can\'t tell if he likes one or the other better yet, his lone turf race was in line with his other early races. So at 15-1 he may be a good bet, but from the sheets I like several others better, for example Animauxselle has the fastest number, in a turf sprint, and has been running on dirt for the last few races, maybe a return to the turf will bring him back, also Kittens Cover just beat his 2 year old top by a point, and may run a new top today, as also may Glossy, who just equaled his two year old top two back, then moved back slightly going long. While the last 2 I have mentioned show slightly slower numbers, these horses seem to me ready for some improvement.
If the horse has no races on turf for example, I look at breeding to see if a surface switch will help or hurt, see what the sire\'s % is with turf or dirt or whatever, but to me its a guessing game. At least if there are a couple of races from the different surface you may be able to gauge how the numbers on the different surfaces were at the time. If the horse is clearly faster, but has never tried the new/different surface, depending on the price I would bet him, just because he is faster.

For me its Kittens Cover, key with Glossy and Animauxselle underneath.
As for your 2nd question, I never look at Beyer figures.

[Tavasco]

drbillym, thanks for putting this one on my radar. I am also of the opinion this filly is a contender on her good race.

I\'m no expert on sheetology, but my personal guideline on dirt to turf surface changes is balanced energy distribution is good. In routes, late runners generally more apt to have success on turf than pacesetters which tend to drop an anchor in the stretch.

Not to worry I won\'t depress the price.