Mendelssohn

[T Severini]

Well...My primary dislike was 5-2, but he was able to wear down the only other speed and that set him up pretty nice. If he doesn\'t break or take to the slop, fair additional probabilities, then both favs are dead in the payouts.  I\'ll check his back numbers with a Red Board now, but I\'m pretty sure that Santa Anita Derby spelled bounce but for Baffert. I have not liked Scat Daddy\'s but a Scat in Bafferts hands is a whole nuther matter.  

My strategy is rarely to just win a Derby. I want to clobber it.

I thought Scatifying the two favorite Scats was the way to go. It didn\'t work out with one of them.

[P-Dub]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well...My primary dislike was 5-2, but he was able
> to wear down the only other speed and that set him
> up pretty nice. If he doesn\'t break or take to the
> slop, fair additional probabilities, then both
> favs are dead in the payouts.  I\'ll check his back
> numbers with a Red Board now, but I\'m pretty sure
> that Santa Anita Derby spelled bounce but for
> Baffert. I have not liked Scat Daddy\'s but a Scat
> in Bafferts hands is a whole nuther matter.  
>
> My strategy is rarely to just win a Derby. I want
> to clobber it.
>
> I thought Scatifying the two favorite Scats was
> the way to go. It didn\'t work out with one of
> them.

T Sev,

You can still clobber a race with a 5/2 shot, in a large field, with tons of public money in the pools. Not all 5/2 shots are the same. I hated Always Dreaming on the Oaks undercard. I liked Justify quite a bit, as I did GM and Audible.

This great game has been my favorite wagering hobby for 30 years. I handicap sports every day, but nothing comes close to putting money through the windows and watching these magnificent animals race. If I could only wager on one sport for the rest of my life, it would be horse racing.  This coming from a guy that wins at sports wagering, but has been a losing player over his lifetime betting on horses (although I\'m better than I used to be). Thats how much I love horse racing.

One of the things I was told years ago by a very successful player, is that being successful is 25% handicapping and 75% constructing tickets. He is spot on.

One of the things I like to do after a day or weekend of racing is take note of what happened, specifically with wagering. I look at my contenders and how I used them, look at the results, and try to understand how could I have constructed a winning ticket. I take notes, and keep a file of specific bet structures. Tris and supers, Pick 3/4.

While I didn\'t cash the big one, I was damn close. One thing I started doing is hitting all in the 4 spot on supers. Yes, it costs a bit of money. But I don\'t do it every time, I do it when a big score is possible and I can narrow the main contenders... 14 and 20 horse fields, with a sloppy track tossed in, fits the bill....and I do it when my bankroll allows.  Usually Big Cap weekend, BC weekend, Derby Day..days when my bankroll is at its max.

I liked Justify, GM, and Audible. Mend a toss, Bolt playable underneath from JB\'s \"A\" group. Good Magic was my top choice, so that was the one I targeted with a Super wager.

GM over Aud/Justify/Bolt in 2/3 and the all button 4th. Cost $102 if I recall properly. Already lost a chunk of money by that point, and didn\'t want to spend another $204 doing the same with the other 2. It was the right idea, just targeted the wrong contender.

My long winded point is that this race could have been clobbered with that 5/2 shot on top.

Last comment. Once again JB\'s information and numbers were excellent. While I just missed huge scores both days, TG put me in a position to have a chance and that is all you could really ask for. I don\'t need a guy to take me by the hand, walk me to the window, and tell me what to do. Part of what makes this so exhilarating is taking the info and figuring it out yourself.

Looking forward to the Preakness and hopefully a Justify win, then the incredible electricity of a TC possibility.

[jerry]

So you would argue that a sealed sloppy track doesn’t favor speed and carry speed further? Hmm. I must be new at this game.

[Ace]

P-Dub your 2nd to last paragraph is spot-on. I don\'t blindly use the analysis, ever, I buy the TG data and form my own opinions. Some of my best scores have come by my own interpretation of the data and my knowledge of pedigrees and factoring in jockeys and trainers, etc. I had Instilled Regard in the 3 and 4 hole for the super yesterday but left Justify off the top due to a prejudice against Storm Cats going that far and I was all in on Good Magic. I don\'t know what you do for a living but I\'m a \"rocket Scientist\" and I find this game to be the perfect indulgence for a guy like me. It requires logic, analysis and most of all, discipline. Nobody needs to lead me by the hand to the window. I\'ll do it myself.

I\'m an OC-California guy and an Angels season ticket holder...I know you\'re an A\'s guy and I think your team has promise.  But we have Ohtani and Trout and they are doing great things so far (but very disappointing recently against the Sox and Yanks = those obnoxious east coast teams who fill our stadiums with idiots).

Ace

[shanahan]

absolute ditto to this post!  I scratch my head at the analysis product, but love the figs.  really a must-have.

[FrankD.]

Ace,

Yanks on a major roll, still haven’t paired their 2 yr old top from last years baby bombers.... You ain’t seen NUTIN yet. Dead Sox start 17-2 and will be in 2nd place in a few days. TG 6-, 7-‘s AHEAD.

Fans much more obnoxious than the team😎

[Ace]

We went early last Saturday to see Judge & Stanton in BP. Camped out in the LF bleachers at 4pm with my glove from HS baseball circa 1981. Stanton skipped BP and Judge hit all his bombs (and they were huge) to the batter\'s eye in center and right of that. Judge crushed the ball in his first three at bats and it was 10-0 Yanks after 2 innings. All Rise, but I\'d rather have Trout...

[FrankD.]

You’ll never have to worry about Trout taking a curtain call in DaBronx.....

[boardedup]

Nope, he\'s coming home to Philly as soon as that contract is up, and we can\'t wait!

[Ace]

To be honest, I heard the same thing from a retired co-worker who is the dad of a kid who played with a kid who played with Trout on the Angels when he was 20=21. His ultimate goal is to be a Philly.

[rezlegal]

as long as we are talking about baseball, the greatest ball player who ever lived celebrates his 87tt Birthday today- he wore number 24- nuff said!

[boardedup]

You mean the god father to the best #24 in (Pittsburg) history and the best #25 In (SF) and (likely all of baseball) history?

Say Hey!  Seattle had an ok #24 to if we\'re making lists...

One for the bar stool- Willie Mays amazingly made 24 all star teams, matching his jersey number, #24....there\'s a trivia question in there but I couldn\'t figure out how to phrase it..

[rezlegal]

Had Willie played where Hank Aaron played( this is for you TGJB) he would have likely hit 800- 900 homers!

[Flighted Iron]

Some statistical evidence floating around that suggests otherwise since we\'re talking baseball on a numbers forum.