First Attempt at Deciphering the Derby Early Pace

[Molesap]

Note - sorry for the length as it came out much longer than I anticipated.

Any thoughts on the Derby pace? I know that generally, TG’ers are not as worried about pace analyses as other methodologies, but I do not think there is as much pace in this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby as most people seem to think. In fact, I think there is a legitimate scenario where Promises Fulfilled could wire the field. I want to be clear that at this time I do not consider it to be the most likely scenario, but perhaps likely enough to spread some tickets in that direction. I am hoping Snapper Sinclair does not draw in as he could change the pace scenario, but there are just two horses that seem committed to lead from their past performances in the field as constituted today â€" Promises Fulfilled and Justify. There are a few other possibilities, but no one else seems remotely interested in making the top here. Many seem content to sit right off the pace, but to actually try to get to the lead, there none that I can see. It certainly depends on the draw and the final field composition (and I think at this point it is more likely to have another defection than less likely) and there is always a potential suicidal try at the lead like by Palace Malice, but I cannot see Mike Smith riding Justify like Bodemeister this time around. He will try to sit on the outside and likely try to work out a more Big Brown type ride. That was the ride he gave him in the SA Derby and he was in front by a couple â€" he did not need to be that far outside.

As far as Promises Fulfilled, I know that is been a long time since a horse has run so poorly and come back to run well in the Derby and I did not purchase the advanced numbers as I did not think I would have much time to use them, so I am waiting to see the figures next when I purchase them. Then again, not too many other horses went under 22 seconds for their last prep before the Derby. Plus, I do not think Promises Fulfilled looked very good in the post parade, so I am inclined to disregard that race. I have seen a number of people noted they think that he will likely make the lead, but then immediately say he will stop. His Fountain of Youth looked pretty good and he had equipment problems in his last race as a 2YO. While I do not think at this point it is the most likely scenario, I do think it is reasonable enough to plan some of my bets where Promises Fulfilled gets the pace mostly his own way. I know I am in a HUGE minority here, but if he gets to set a normal pace without being hounded early, Promises Fulfilled may duplicate his Fountain of Youth score. Will it be good enough to get the job done? I envision him setting the pace much like his daddy, but perhaps not succumbing to the late pressure like Shackleford did. Trainer Dale Romans has already stated his intentions to put him on the lead, but who else may pressure?

Mendelssohn â€" was gunned to the lead in Dubai where you had to be on the rail to have shot, but doubt that tactic would be used here. Unlikely to press.
Magnum Moon â€" wired Arkansas Derby, but with glacially slow fractions. Has never been especially quick early and no reason to this he will change is tactics. Unlikely to press.
Justify â€" the most likely to put on a bit of heat early based on PP’s, but given his apparent brilliance and Mike Smith’s history on Bodemeister, I just do not seem him going for the lead unless Justify just pulls him to it. Unlikely to press.
Enticed â€" early pace figures put him near the top but has been 5th or worse early as many times as he has been 2nd or 3rd. Unlikely to press.
Flameaway â€" has been first or second in half his lifetime starts, but does not have brilliant early speed and would likely have to be pushed early â€" likely not the case in this race. Unlikely to press.
Noble Indy â€" has been on or near the lead in all of his starts, but seems more intent on stalking than leading. Stalked hopeless longshot last time who wilted and seems content to stay in the second tier. Unlikely to press.
Bravazo â€" seems to be the wildcard in terms of pace. Lukas not afraid to hard send his charges if he thinks that gives them the best chance. Head to head last year had him over six lengths back early. Unlikely to press unless Lukas decides to quarter horse from gate.

With so many horses apparently looking to get that sweet spot stalking trip like the last couple of winners have done, it may create a logjam behind as too many horses gun for too few positional spots. Besides the list above, Good Magic, Bold d’Oro, Solomini, Free Drop Billy and Instilled Regard may all vie for space in that bunch.

If Promises Fulfilled wins this, he likely has to go over 23, 47 and 1:11 for the early fractions. I think with this field, he may be able to do that. Still not sure he can hold on in that case but should be a big enough price to take at least a small shot.

What do you think?

[jbelfior]

Would not shock me if they send Solomini like they did in the Juvenile. Bolt will also be up close. I\'m thinking they want to be ahead of Justify down the backstretch this time.

If Promises Fulfilled wires the Derby, \"I\'m going to tell my grandkids about you.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

I expect Noble Indy second time blinkers with an aggressive rider in Geroux to be right up there if somebody tries to slow it down.

An honest to fast pace helps Repole\'s
other horse.I think you\'ll see 23 and 46.

[TempletonPeck]

Molesap Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mendelssohn â€" was gunned to the lead ... Unlikely to
> press.
> Magnum Moon â€" wired Arkansas Derby ...  Unlikely to press.
> Justify â€" the most likely to put on a bit of
> heat early based on PP’s ... Unlikely
> to press.
> Enticed â€" early pace figures put him near the
> top ... Unlikely to press.
> Flameaway â€" has been first or second in half his
> lifetime starts ... Unlikely to
> press.
> Noble Indy â€" has been on or near the lead in all
> of his starts ... Unlikely to press.


> What do you think?


I think you want it to be true, so you\'re working really hard to convince yourself it could be.

[RICH]

romans has the speed, but his other one looks pretty good to me on TG, must use for me

[JR]

It all depends on the post and the break which, in a 20 horse field, is a big if. Just worry about which horses are fast enough and coming into the race the right way. As for trips, just pray.

[Tavasco]

IMO, the way Promises Fulfilled is working in the morning I expect him to be little more than traffic for the 1st quarter/half mile. The early pace probably isn\'t especially relevant this year.

Over the last few years the move California Chrome made famous c/b this years key, Gun Runner, Nyquist and others also had a good copy. The move I\'m referring to is the one which becomes noticeable in the second half of the final turn.

A quick burst to separate from the front runners and leave the late runners with too much to do in the stretch. This move essentially cancels out the gain of the so-called (P) mid pack pressers who cannot sustain their run forever and consequently never really get into contention and don\'t have a reachable target.

Finishing up with a relaxed late stetch. Prerequisites a) the ability to attend the pace, b) a burst or athleticism some might say, c) arguably Bodemeister used a similar tactic. The earmark being the separation late in the turn and the top of the stretch.

If this makes sense then I have some great South Florida real estate including mosquitos and beautiful marsh birds.

My candidates for horses capable of such a move this year are - Justify, Medelsohn, Bolt D\'Oro & Audible, I don\'t think Vino Rosso can/will attend the pace, sadly Magnum Moon hasn\'t really shown a burst. Good Magic, where does this one get into the race?

[BitPlayer]

Far be it from me to talk anyone off a big longshot.  My only suggestion would be that you might want bet him in something other than the win pool (e.g., the Oaks-Derby double).  I thought about the scenario you describe when he was 98-1 in futures pool 4, but decided he was too slow and probably not bred for the distance.  I doubt he (or anyone else) will be that long in the win pool on Derby Day, but he should be bet less heavily in a pool containing less casual money.

[Molesap]

BitPlayer - that makes total sense. I agree with you in this regard - Derby longshots always seem to be overbet and I do not expect any horses to be over 60/1. As I said, this is almost certainly NOT my main selection and the Oaks/Derby DD seems like a good place to get the best value here. I can bet $20 total on a $1 wheel and then a few extra tickets on the logical horses and have myself some insurance on Saturday just in case. I will also likely use a small bit in the mutlirace exotics, but again mostly on a small denomination spread ticket or two.

[boardedup]

I think it\'s interesting that PFF and Flame Away are next to each other down on the inside.  They both have to be on the dead send and then with Audible also inside enough that he\'ll likely have to use more early speed then he may have otherwise shown initially.  

You also have Mendelsohn and Bravazo right next to each other toward the outside of the main gate.  I think Mendelsohn could have a tough trip if he isn\'t used early.  

There\'s 6-8 slotted inside him that want to at least press the pace if not be on it, and then two TAP\'s and Baffert\'s second string outside him that will be \"crashing\" down from the outside trying to get forwardly placed.  I\'d think he\'ll need to use a lot early to avoid getting pinched back and/or hung wide.  I guess you can say that about any of them in a twenty horse field, but just looking at it on paper I think the draw isn\'t awesome for him.

In my opinion the two big guns from out west drew the best and should be in touch with PFF rounding the far turn.  I think both are better and pre looking at sheets/seminar feel like Bolt\'s offering legit value.

[johnnym]

Obviously PF is going and got the ideal post for it.
Flameaway I see being right on his hip.
With those two going I can see Audible dropping back behind Justify and be right behind Good Magic & Bolt as the 8-10 holes are dropping out of it.
Noble Indy is in a big predicament from the 19 hole.
Let’s not forget Magnum Moon as well what does he do?
Mendy is in a predicament I believe as Enticed likes to be up front as well as Bravazo.
 If he goes he gets used and if he settles what 5W?
1/2 time 46.2
Good Luck
John

[thebig1five]

Very good point about Mendelssohn.