Monomoy vs. Midnight Bisou

[dsipes]

Question for discussion regarding Monomoy Girl vs. Midnight Bisou.  Which pattern do you guys like to see coming in to The Oaks:  Monomoy\'s matching 3\'s in her last two races; or Midnight Bisou\'s subtle progression from 5 to 3.2 in her last two races?  Hoping for some analysis from you guys/gals.

For what it\'s worth, in the Sire Profiles for both fillies, looks like Midnight\'s sire has better (arguably much better) TG figs and Win % than Monomoy\'s sire in Overall, 3yo, dirt, 8f and longer, and Fillies and Mares.

[TempletonPeck]

For what it\'s worth, I think it\'s prudent to look further back than just the 3yo season.

That said, you asked a specific question, so here\'s a specific answer: to me, the paired 3\'s are better - and it isn\'t close. One horse is already faster (however slightly), and you have some evidence that it can repeat that performance.

[Mike C]

I also like the paired 3\'s better, when Midnight Bisou paired the 5\'s the next race was a small forward move. Its more likely to me that Monomoy will move forward or at least run the 3, than Midnight Bisou. Monomoy also has made less development since his 2 year old top, only moved forward 1 3/4 points since then, more room for improvement.

[dsipes]

Interesting.  What\'s your thoughts about their 2yo into 3yo season?

Midnight went from 10 to 8 in 2yo season to paired 5\'s in her first two starts in 3yo season.  This tells me (a novice) that she\'s capable of getting some real improvement in her figs by 2 to 3 points.

Whereas, Monomony had 4.3 to 5.2 in 2yo season then paired those 3\'s in her 3yo season, which says to me she\'s not shown to get much separation or improvement in her figs, rather steady improvement, but not by leaps and bounds.

Or am I just totally in another galaxy??

[dsipes]

So, by Thorograph analysis and your experience, it\'s better not to make SUBSTANTIAL improvement from 2yo to 3yo because it leaves room for improvement in 3yo season?  And usually does show improvement?

[Mike C]

In my opinion, smaller moves from the top number from 2 to 3 are an indicator that there is more room for improvement. I like seeing a 1 or 2 point improvement from the two year top, I usually look for that horse to jump forward again soon.The sheets themselves have a section that indicates how much each horses sire improved each year, and it is often only a couple or a few points. If the horse jumps say 4-5 points from his two year old top, in the future he or she may improve more, but in the short term I would take the horse with the smaller jumps.

[TGJB]

Keep in mind that the TGI\'s in the sire profiles are averages, and end of 2yo year to end of 3yo year.

We did something on this in the 2017 Derby Seminar Intro, which can be found in the Archives. I\'m updating it for this year, and actually working on exactly that part right now.

[mjellish]

As someone who bought the TG pre oaks/derby special I don\'t think its very cool that people are giving out specific numbers of who ran what on a free message board.  You guys want to talk patterns, etc.  Cool.  You want to give out free numbers that others paid for, I say private message each other.  

Show some respect for the people who bought the data and the people who are selling it.

[Mike C]

my bad, you are correct.

[toppled]

I\'ll take Coach Rocks over both of them.