Pletcher and the three week turnaround

[mjellish]

I don\'t put any relevance in this whatsoever.  

Sure, I think it matters to understand a trainers usual MO.  But I think it stops there.

IMO you have to look at these colts as individuals who happened to be trained by the same guy.  In Magnum Moon\'s case he didn\'t race at 2 at all.  He had no foundation or racing experience before he started his 3 year old campaign.  Now if he runs in the KY Derby this will be the 5th race of this 16 week campaign and his 3rd race in 7 weeks.  So IMO it\'s just a bunch of hyperbole to try to compare Magnum Moon to Danza - who had 2 races as a 2 year old and then came off a layoff to have 2 preps as a 3 year old before he came into the Derby off 3 weeks rest.  Or Super Saver who had 4 races at 2 and then 2 preps at 3 and came into the Derby off 3 weeks rest.  Let alone American Pharoah who had 3 races at 2, came into the KY Derby off 3 weeks rest and was trained by a different guy altogether with a whole different program.  You just can\'t put the \"3 weeks rest/Pletcher\" stuff into a box and try to run some type of study that is then supposed to mean something.  I\'d rather just put my money in the toaster that Saturday morning and try to save the butter for something else.

IMO Magnum Moon has been asked to learn a lot AND run a lot in a short period of time by a trainer who usually tries to space things out and doesn\'t drill them hard in the AM all the time.  So for me, the percentages say a new top for this colt isn\'t very likely.  Add to that MM doesn\'t change leads correctly and really drifted out in the stretch with his ears pinned back as if he was more tired than it appeared, and I think he has a good chance to run an off race.  But that\'s just my opinion.  

I also think that knowing how Rag\'s does their numbers and how Jerry does his this colt is going to look very different on the two sets of data.  And I promise I haven\'t seen their numbers at all.  So its going to be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

[big18741]

Molesap

Two of those on your list that ran back in three weeks weren\'t Pletcher trained.

Lawyer Ron didn\'t go to Pletcher until later in his career and Harlan\'s Holiday was trained by McPeek.

[Molesap]

Thanks Big - for some reason the PP\'s I have for Harlan\'s Holiday say Pletcher and it only goes up through the Blue Grass, but you are correct in that it was McPeek. I did not realize that Holthus trained Lawyer Ron in the Derby, so thanks for pointing that out. I also earlier counted Revolutionary in three-week rest group, but he came in off five-weeks rest. I have updated the original chart and numbers to reflect those things.