Keeneland Today Strong 20+mph crosswind

[NoCarolinaTony]

Guys

Sitting here at Keeneland and we have an extremely strong constant crosswind blowing from backstretch towards the grandstand. Wind will be in your face on turn 1 of 2 turn races and at your back turning for home. How would such a strong crosswind affect the races ?

NC Tony

[TempletonPeck]

I don\'t know the answer to your question, but this seems like relevant reading:

https://phys.org/news/2012-03-horse-scientists-secret-success.html

[NoCarolinaTony]

I do get most of that. The point of my question is sustained cross winds vs head and tail winds. I know all the points on drafting. The concern I had is with it being a cross wind, is their any special effect with this type of wind vs tail or headwind.

[Gerard]

I find it difficult to handicap for wind per se. Be it tail, head or cross. Crosswinds do seem to produce a higher rate of jumps and x\'es. The reason it is difficult are the higher gusts that accompany any sustained wind. Gusts can fracture any race and are impossible to account for.

I find wind more useful after the fact. You can take today\'s jump ups and have a stronger case for expecting a bounce, especially if you can pinpoint wind speed, exact direction and intra race gusts to the start of each race and whether the jump up was a result. More useful in my mind are the unexpected x\'es that will show up. Using today\'s example, a horse that races outside on the backstretch will likely be expending more energy than the horses on the inside. Similar to running on a dead rail. I\'ll look for horses that didn\'t run their race today and if they were exposed to that backstretch crosswind, they\'d definitely be marked for next out.

Speaking of dead rails, Free Drop Billy has come back from his dead rail trip at Del Mar in nice fashion. Good second to Audible on a slightly windy Holy Bull day, then mauled at the finish of the Blue Grass. What may be missed in the Blue Grass is the backup he had to do on the backstretch behind Gotta Go. Early on, he\'s my pick to crash the verticals.

[ajkreider]

I would think it hurts front runners in two turn races.

Horses in front don\'t get the benefit of running with the wind on the second turn, because the horses behind block the wind and get the push - the reverse happens on the first turn, with the lead horse getting the brunt of it.  

The one turn races are a bit more complicated, because they should be run a bit quicker, favoring front runners - and maybe that compensates for the tailwind.

(Sorry for the edits.  I had the wind directions reversed).

[NoCarolinaTony]

Friday the winds are expected to pick up to 30-45mph, This is serious winds.
Again any of our in-house experts your input is appreciated