Can't Win Them All Unless One Wins The First

Started by Tavasco, January 25, 2018, 01:09:14 PM

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Tavasco

Overview
Prior to approaching what has been described as a terrible card by more than a couple tgenerates. I considered briefly what comprises a good card? How should I approach a bad card? In the end, its same old, same old. I will endeavor to identify overlays.  For vertical players I\'ll ID likely winners regardless of value.  

GP Friday 1/26/18 Race 1 MCL Turf Route 4 y/o +
In a race like this I\'m looking for horses that can run in the stretch, no lungers dropping anchor for me
.
The three (3) that have demonstrated that ability at one time or another are #6. Lookin Forever, #5 Captain Kitt, #4. Family Justice.

#4. Family Justice is not under the radar @ 9/2, looks a mid pack plodder who I make even money to get into the tri or super.
 
#5 Captain Kitt\'s last race was a nice bounce back to what is probably his current good race level. He attracts Irad. Stayed close to pace at reasonable fractions last out, a contender but no overlay to me.

#6 Lookin Forever is 10/1 probably because he hasn\'t raced since 2016 and most don\'t know his trainer or jockey. However, if he can run back to some of his old #\'s he\'s a contender. This one often got too far back early maybe the recent 3F w/o signals readiness.  I\'ll take a positive view and tab him an overlay.

#2 Wigwam Summer can also finish races a bit and seems to like both GP and his new rider Donis. A second overlay imo.

The underlays?
#8 Diplomatic Shaft 7/2 capable trainer & jockey - I\'m wondering how big is the hole in him? Worked out slowest of 50? I do not regard his stumble in the last race as significant. It was dirt. It was a sprint. He didn\'t break down.

#7 Offshore Trip - Has merits, can run with the leaders but #1 Dino Dude is sure to ruin any attempts to lanquish on the lead. A reasonable favorite and a vertical use but I doubt his ability to finish at todays distance.

Tavasco

With 4-5min (or 15?)to post, the bettors saw the race a bit different than m/l maker. #1\'s price is riding up my overlays have vanished. #4 Family Justice is more attractive @ 8/1 currently.

WigWam at the last minute

Sheesh in the last minute or two the prices corrected to close to m/l projections. I was wrong about the #6 and my play #2 Wigwam was ridden poorly. To finish strong!