Dead rail...

Started by TGJB, November 04, 2017, 02:09:26 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Tavasco


BitPlayer

They reached the same conclusion on XBTV, but Bar of Gold rallied up the rail on the turn before angling out and Gun Runner wasn\'t far off it.  I\'ll be interested if you come to the same conclusion after you do the day.

Bet Twice

The numbers were spot on and the analysis excellent.  Ended the 2 day marathon in the black and better yet, was able to bring a couple of guests who were here with me along for the ride.  As is probably common with most horseplayers, playing the coulda, shoulda, woulda game today, thinking of how I should have structured my tickets more effectively to capitalize on my opinions.  Jb - if you get a minute, would love to hear how you structured your late pick 4. (E.g do you spread widely to cover bases or go all in on your top selections?  Did you key anyone on every ticket (gun runner) or have savers with other candidates)  I hit it, but can\'t help feel I should have done better.

johnnym

LOL; I am playing the same mental game with my self today.
Yes, would love to hear some wagering strategies others used

jbelfior

I\'m not a good horizontal player so I stuck to what I am comfortable with which is the exacta box.

Juv Colts: used Untamed Domain with the 1, 6,8,12 so that worked out.
Distaff: Loaded up on the Forever Unbridled/PW exacta. ....not so good.

Saturday: keyed Ami\'s Messa (that\'s just an angle I use in sprints off synthetic or turf) with 5 horses in exacta boxes. Bar of Gold? Really? That one hurt.

Keyed Grand Jete with Lady Eli and the winner. Should have paid more attention to the numbers which screamed buyer beware. I let the Beverly D impact my decision.

Keyed Om with World Approval, Blackjacket and Ribchester. Thought I could have received a better ride from VanDyke but that\'s turf racing and perhaps Om just not as good as he was at 4.

Turf: Loved Sadler\'s Joy and keyed him with the top 3. Ran hard, lost ground as expected and just didn\'t get there.

Classic: keyed Collected with GR, Arrogate, and West Coast. Thought Collected ran his eyeballs out to chase that beast and still hold second. Cashed for $3,400 which got me just about even.

It was a great day for all of us and hopefully better on the bottom line for most of you.

Good Luck,
Joe B

TGJB

I didn\'t have any singles, but in that bet I just used 1 and 4 in the turf, the longer ones I liked there. (I was live pretty good in the pick 3 that ended with the Juvenile, so for me the only reason to go out from there was if a long one won later). You\'re not the only one who left money on the table, for me it was not using Battle Of Midway in multis Friday.
TGJB

atakante

Overall in the black this weekend.  I only play verticals, did well on Friday except BOM -- I\'m simply humbled by his performance against a game Sharp Azteca...quality animal. I misread him all year long even after watching him live in SA Handicap lose to Gormley on a race he deserved to win.

Then got pummeled 6 races in a row on Saturday...some close calls and nothing going my way so deep into the red.  Somehow had to summon the nerves to keep going (a string of Bloody Mary\'s probably helped :) and got the exactas and tris in the Juvenile, Turf and Classic to finish ahead.  The big coulda woulda of the two days for me was the Juve Filly race on Saturday.  I eliminated Alluring Star based on her sheet, but was really on the fence with it until late as she wasn\'t that far behind others.  Cost me easily a 5 digit score.
Solid solid seminar...thanks TG!

Ace

Carina Mia was my bet of the BC. When the entries came out and I saw she drew the rail, I was not happy.  But I bet her anyway she was 20-1. She was the best in that race yesterday, in my opinion,losing by a length on that \"dead rail\" Gambling is unforgiving.

TGJB

Dead rail both days. It was tricky, I gave it to some who were on the rail on the sraightaways, too, there\'s judgement involved.

It\'s possible that it wasn\'t just the rail, but that different paths were different, but there\'s no way to quantify that.
TGJB