Question for the Board -- Breeders Cup Turf Sprint -- Bucchero

[SoCalMan2]

The referenced horse won the Woodford on Saturday.  Sheets are still in the Red Board Room.

Am curious what people think about him. If you look at him as a three year old and early four year old, he looks like he is the same horse on turf and dirt (at least sprinting -- his two turn turf efforts are dismal at the end of his three year old year and August of his four year old year (n.b. the August 2016 race looks like a sprint on the sheet, but was a two turn 7.5 furlong race)).

When this horse tried the Woodford last year, he got the absolute worst of a three ply speed duel into a stiff headwind and still manage to have the lead turning from home....if you look at the replay, it was a very good effort notwithstanding the poor final finish. As I understand it, he also had an excuse in the last race of his four year old year.

as a 5 year old....he puts together a respectable but not flashy year.  Since he last fired in a turf sprint, he has lowered his dirt top from a 5.0 to a 2.5, so the question was going into the Woodford, if he is still the same horse dirt sprinting and turf sprinting, then what is he.....it would appear he probably ran to his dirt top (or maybe a little bit better) in the Woodford.  

So with all that, is this a horse that can contend in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint?  He is no Power Alert, but it also seems the top of this division is quite erratic.  Also, the 5 furlongs and this horse\'s running style would seem to suggest he should get the most out of his figure.  You gotta like the blue collar appearance and underdog status of the horse who is a real trier.

[Bet Twice]

Both his breeding and pattern would lead me to think he is roughly the same dirt or turf.  If he did pair up his dirt top then I\'d think he has a pretty nice pattern coming into the BC.  Sires offspring improve quite a bit from 4 to 5 so if did pair up the 2.5 I would pencil him in for a 1-2 in the BC.  Not sure where that puts him relative to the competition but worth a closer look.

[SoCalMan2]

Bet Twice Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Both his breeding and pattern would lead me to
> think he is roughly the same dirt or turf.  If he
> did pair up his dirt top then I\'d think he has a
> pretty nice pattern coming into the BC.  Sires
> offspring improve quite a bit from 4 to 5 so if
> did pair up the 2.5 I would pencil him in for a
> 1-2 in the BC.  Not sure where that puts him
> relative to the competition but worth a closer
> look.

Thanks much. Very insightful. Going to be very interesting to see what the competition shakes out to be.  There are various contenders who would need to supplement to join, but field doesnt look so deep this year, so some may take chances.  Still think this lowly Indiana bred will be overlooked at the windows notwithstanding the seemingly isolated G2 victory.

[Tavasco]

Among the Competition, according to the BC website, two fillies Martha(IRE) & Miss Aurelia are eligible due to win and you\'re in races earlier in the year. Beating either or both will take some doing. Of course they may not show?

Last year using the 6 1/2 F layout @ SA the top two finisher carded 0\'s (which was nothing new for them) 1. Obviously, 2. OM, 3. Pure Sensation in third with 1² after having run a string of zero\'s prior to the BC.

Bucchero, imo, unlikely to be the favorite and that\'s a good start. Disco Partner @ Bel Saturday also impressed.

[dsipes]

Wouldn\'t most of you agree these turf sprint races are chaotic plain and simple?  Not sure the impact or post position winning percentages for 5f turf races at Del Mar, which I think would be critical to any analysis.  

I\'ll likely spread in the horizontal wagers and use all horses that ran between a 0.3 up to a 2 in their final prep as A horses and my B horses will consist of those that ran 2.1 to 3.3 in final prep.  Just too chaotic not to spread heavy in horizontals and box the A horses in verticals.  Just my novice opinion.  Subject to change and top choice to be made after I listen to JB\'s seminar.

[Bet Twice]

Agree that turf sprints can be a bit chaotic, at least in my experience, particularly if betting vertically.  I haven\'t had much success there, but maybe that\'s a reflection on me and not the nature of the race.

[SoCalMan2]

This horse was just moved up from second to first on a DQ of the first place finisher in the Robert Byrd Memorial at Mountaineer.

Horse enters the BC Turf Sprint on a 3 race win streak.

Horse and Fernando De La Cruz are 5 for 5 together all in Stakes (1 grass sprint, 2 dirt sprints, 2 dirt routes - the routes and one of the dirt sprints were stakes restricted to Indiana Breds).  

If you watch any of their races together, this jockey just fits this horse like a glove.

[SoCalMan2]

dsipes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wouldn\'t most of you agree these turf sprint races
> are chaotic plain and simple?  Not sure the impact
> or post position winning percentages for 5f turf
> races at Del Mar, which I think would be critical
> to any analysis.  
>
> I\'ll likely spread in the horizontal wagers and
> use all horses that ran between a 0.3 up to a 2 in
> their final prep as A horses and my B horses will
> consist of those that ran 2.1 to 3.3 in final
> prep.  Just too chaotic not to spread heavy in
> horizontals and box the A horses in verticals.
> Just my novice opinion.  Subject to change and top
> choice to be made after I listen to JB\'s seminar.

There is a fairly long run from the gate to the first turn.  Although post positions are not irrelevant, I would think they are less impactful in this configuration compared to some others.  Do agree that these sort of matches tend to be chaotic, but I think part of it is how closely matched they tend to be anyway and how impactful trip can be on the outcome (but post position not as helpful for predicting trip as it could be)