Classic is fascinating this year

[Chas04]

anchoring all the multi race wagers as well it makes it a doozy. IMHO Gun Run doesn\'t relish that distance...no matter how fast he is. Gate looks really off still in all his works and Collected almost collapsed at the wire in the Pac. City zip no stayer. WC improving but green and all over the place in PA. One of the better puzzles in a while. Exciting to think about

[TGJB]

If Arrogate had not been in the World Cup, how would Gun Runner look at 1 1/4?

There are questions with GR, but that ain\'t one of them.

[dsipes]

Through 2016, only six horses have won the Classic when they posted a lifetime top speed figure in last prep.  This year, the following posted lifetime tops in last prep race: collected (double tops), Diversify (double tops), Gunnevera, Gun Runner, Mubtaahij, & Pavel.  Gun Runner also posted triple digit early & late pace figs in his last for the first time ever.  Very vulnerable favorite IMO.

[johnnym]

What was Gunnevera number from the Travers?
Ty
John

[richiebee]

dsipes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Through 2016, only six horses have won the Classic
> when they posted a lifetime top speed figure in
> last prep.  This year, the following posted
> lifetime tops in last prep race: collected (double
> tops), Diversify (double tops), Gunnevera, Gun
> Runner, Mubtaahij, & Pavel.  Gun Runner also
> posted triple digit early & late pace figs in his
> last for the first time ever.  Very vulnerable
> favorite IMO.

Did the TG Advance for BC come out yet? Where are you getting the information
on lifetime and double tops?

Interesting though if the \"Rule\" is that runners coming off new tops rarely
win, and almost ALL of the logical contenders are coming off new tops, maybe
the 2017 Classic is like the 2017 Derby, which Ray Paulick characterized as a
race that the experts said no horse could win.

So I should be all in on Arrogate, who has been well off his best lifetime
efforts in his two recent starts?

As to Diversify, the decision will be made next Monday, but I would be
surprised to see him ship for the Classic and would expect to see him in the
Cigar Mile at AQ on December 2.

[Bet Twice]

Creating binary rules for selecting horses without considering the context seems like a fools errand.  Not only is it not likely to produce results but it kind of takes the fun out of handicapping, doesn\'t it?  I certainly hope to make money,  but the real motivation in handicapping for me is trying to put together the puzzle pieces and the occasional satisfaction in getting it right - any profit is validation that I\'m doing it fairly well.

[dsipes]

Just to clarify, I said SPEED figure, not Thiro-Graph figure

[dsipes]

Nobody said I was not going to consider the context.  Just thought it was an interesting stat that only 6 horses since 1984 have won Classic off lifetime sPEED FIGURE top in last race.  If a BC entrant ran a TG 14 two races ago and a negative 2 in his last prep (that negative 2 being the best in its life),  would it be a \"fools errand\" to believe that horse may very likely regress when shipping from New York or Europe to Del Mar within 35 days of that negative number?  Don\'t think so.  Its just something to consider after you look at other factors like pace scenario, post position, form etc.  The proof is in the pudding.  Had you bet all horses since 1984 to win the Classic who had the highest lifetime speed fig in their last race, you would have only won 6 times.  I don\'t think you\'d be happy with that record.

[TGJB]

We have all the back BC\'s in the Archives section of this site. No idea why you would talk about the others here, whoever they belong to.

[Bet Twice]

i\'d obviously agree that a huge jump-up figure generally doesn\'t bode well for the horse next out.  My point was on using rules, which based on your other posts sounds like you\'re a fan of.  Throwing horses out of consideration if they have a top in their last, regardless of how it was earned or relatively to other numbers doesn\'t sound like a good approach, regardless of what the record shows.

[ajkreider]

A quick look at the archives says (if reading right) that 4 of the last six classic winners were coming of a lifetime top (using \"within a point\" as counting as pairing the top).  AP didn\'t and Bayern didn\'t, though the latter was within a point, and the place horse that year did come off a top.

[dsipes]

Watched all the archives, love it and I\'m going to use TG heavily this year.  Didn\'t know pointing out a speed fig stat was unfavored and prohibited here.  Won\'t happen again.