ROTW

[Bet Twice]

I\'ll take a different position than the author (TGAB I presume).  I read the improvement in 2017 as normal development (not that far off typical 4 to 5 development according to the sure stats) and don\'t think he needs to bounce.  If he can work out a decent trip a 4.5 at the weights makes him tough.  4-1 (maybe you get 9/2?) seems like good value.

[TGAB]

Not sure what horse you\'re referring to--is it Off Limits?

[Bet Twice]

That would be helpful, yes, was talking about Off Limits.

[TGAB]

There\'s certainly a good chance Off Limits repeats her figure. But Thoro-Pattern and the sire stats really don\'t help much here. The Thoro-Pattern, a mechanical formulation, includes 2 figures from last year, so the timing invalidates the result making it not relevant. And the sire stats are just too sparse to rely on.

But it\'s a generally accepted principle based on observation and data that turf runners bounce less than dirt runners and often run campaigns in a tighter range than their dirt counterparts. Turf is less enervating and often turf races are more reserved until the last few furlongs--less ground for deviation.

So a pair-up for Off Limits is certainly possible. And because she\'s older and physically more mature, based on her efforts last year, she may be able to good ones together at her new improved performance level.

But note she did bounce off tops at three, and it took her almost 2 years to get beyond that 3yo top. And maybe the time elapsed reflects the effort it took to get to the next level. Why didn\'t she do it last year?

Granted she\'s better now than she ever has been, but even a little regression could knock her out of the money here.