BIRDSTONE

[OPM]

I don\'t see any great conspiracy in the rides on Belmont day.  However, what I see is a sudden form reversal of 4 of Zito\'s horses on Saturday.  I think this is the bigger question here.  How does Birdstone get a mile and a half off of that line?  Also, if you saw the horse in the paddock, he looked like a pig.  He had pointed hips, a skin rash, hardly an encouraging sign that a horse will run 1 1/2 miles today.  I think the numbers will tell but it seems that Birdstone might have caught Mullins/Barrera flu on Saturday.  I think this is the bigger question here.  Time will also tell if Birdstone is this good.  I will predict that this horse will not win another Gr 1 race at a mile and quarter for the rest of his life.  I would not be surprised if he was retired after this so as not to risk \"injury\"

[JR]

A mile and a half is a funny distance and most horses don\'t want to go that far. Most hit the wall as Smarty Jones did. Birdstone didn\'t. But he did benefit from a pressured pace scenario that he wasn\'t a part of. All of those who were, except for Smarty, collasped. Commedable won this race with a vaguely similar pattern coming in, as I recall. He showed some ability earlier in the spring but nothing really to suggest he would win. He just set his own pace and never backed up. Birdstone showed ability at 2 and his two races prior to this one had troubled lines. He\'s not a bad horse. I just think there were better horses in this race that finished behind him on Saturday, namely Rock Hard Ten, Eddington and Smarty Jones. The first two would have had a better chance for 2nd and 3rd with different rides. I mean, is Royal Assault a better horse than RHT and Eddington? I don\'t think so. They were just used too hard too early.

I was told that the Beyer for Birdstone is a 101. I didn\'t verify that yet, but it looks correct to me based on my own analysis of the card. That would mean that we were  correct in thinking the race fell apart. Eddington\'s and RHT\'s figures also dropped a lot.

[jbelfior]

Ch--

Not sure anyone can put much stock in any figures for races at a mile and a half on dirt,especially when you\'re talking about  3yos.

What you can put stock in is that BEYERS, THOROS, Rags, etc. for races at 1 3/16 or less do not translate well to a 1 1/2. Class and pace style comes in to play here more than in any other (dirt)race situation.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

I agree that many horses don\'t like the belmont route, but I think the  1 1/2M speed figures still have some interpretive value for understanding a race result.

In other words, I am pretty sure Birdstone and Royal Assault did not improve sharply.

The low speed figure is a secondary verification that the race fell apart.

[jbelfior]

Ch--

I agree. They came home in :27 1/5. SJ threw in 2 tough splits of :23 and then :23 3/5; to BIRDSTONE\'s credit, however,he countered with a :23 4/5 and then a :23 3/5 and used the distance of the race to run SJ down.

Great ride by Prado. Unfortunately,that aspect has gone unnoticed.




Good Luck,
Joe B.