Derby Odds as of 5:00 pm PST

[Molesap]

1 Lookin At Lee 25 - 1
2 Thunder Snow 17 - 1
3 Fast and Accurate 33 - 1
4 Untrapped 60 - 1
5 Always Dreaming 9 - 2
6 State of Honor 46 - 1
7 Girvin 20 - 1
8 Hence 17 - 1
9 Irap 35 - 1
10 Gunnevera 9 - 1
11 Battle of Midway 38 - 1
12 Sonneteer 37 - 1
13 J Boys Echo 42 - 1
14 Classic Empire 7 - 1
15 McCraken 6 - 1
16 Tapwrit 30 - 1
17 Irish War Cry 5 - 1
18 Gormley 24 - 1
19 Practical Joke 33 - 1
20 Patch 13 - 1

[boardedup]

Patch took all the $ at 13-1??  I guess all the sentimental types at the oaks got their bet in early?

If this trend continues the guys saying IWC will go off as the favorite just might be right...but those are some shockingly fantastic numbers on a few.  Any thoughts on if this is a good preview of where the money will flow tomorrow?

[Molesap]

I think it will change some, especially on the aforementioned Patch. This represents less than $1 million in the mutual pool - it was over $50 million last year, so it has a long time to go still. Patch is 13/1 right now, but less than $50K was bet to win on him. There are five horses lower than him in terms of odds right now. However, the DD pool seems to often be a better predictor of final odds. He has the fourth highest will pay at $1337, which is almost $500 higher than the next highest amount, so no he will not likely stay at 13/1. The five vying for favoritism all are clustered right around the $140-150 will pay mark. Irish War Cry is the lowest at a shade under $140, while McCraken is a little above $160 Always Dreaming, Gunnevera and Classic Empire are in between those three. The next highest payout is Practical Joke at over twice that ($383). That is interesting (and I have a good guess why it is the next the sixth lowest payout) is that Practical Joke is 33/1 - almost three times the odds of Patch, yet almost a third of the price in the Oaks-Derby DD pool. My guess is that those two likely come close to flip-flopping in odds by the time the gate opens. The bottom line is that the early betting is too small a chunk of the pool to reflect the final odds accurately. I think the statement that sentimental players bet early was an excellent observation and could easy be followed by TGenerates bet late.

[Leamas57]

I think the more important point is what the track condition may due to the betting.   I am speaking less in terms of a sloppy or muddy track versus a fast slow track. I made a few advance bats today, but might wind up changing them based on what I saw today. For example, I might have thought some front runners could hold on for a piece of the tri or super if the track were wet fast or just relatively fast. Now I have my doubts having seen a number of winners come from off the pace today.  Then again, most of the same jocks will ride tomorrow, so they may adjust their own strategies and slow the paces down in aggregate.

Either way, I am much less interested now in horses who win/won on the front and on fast tracks. It seems that some of the stalking running styles, like CE for example, will benefit, and closers like Gunnevera perhaps too.

Leamas

[jimbo66]

Leamas,

That is an interesting view of today\'s surface.

You watched today\'s races and came away thinking a closer\'s track?

Horses won on the lead or just off pressing the lead, races 1, 2 and 3.

Race 4 was a rail skimming close.

BAck to wire to wire in races 5 and 6 and 8.  (7 was turf)

RAil skimming close in race 9 to run down a speed horse.

And then exactly one wide close in the Oaks. off a suicidal pace.

Speed and the rail were GOLD today.

Tomorrow, who knows.  But GOLD today.

[TreadHead]

Not sure how anyone can have that opinion on just a simple view of the data.  Yes, every race early in the card was won on the lead.  Then this happened:

R9 - won from dead last
R10 - Turf
R11 - won from dead last
R12 - won from dead last
R13 - 4th of 9 at first call, 3rd at the half

Any experienced TG user is familiar with the concept of changing track variants during the day, I don\'t understand why everyone always has to dumb it down and talk about the entire day when the data clearly shows things changed dramatically as the day went on.

To look at this data and suggest any kind of speed bias existed 2nd half of the card is \"welcome to the pools\" worthy.  But will definitely grant you, most simpletons walked away from today thinking it was a completely speed favoring track where 1 or 2 races fell apart.

[Leamas57]

Well, certainly the rail helped the 30-1 shot break up my pick four (from probably last).

Then, in the longest dirt race--the Oaks, the winner came from last. So yes. I saw a lot of closers in the routes. I wasn\'t as specific as I might have been, but I am thinking more about the KD in this case. And the track composition might have changed over the course of the day, too, but it sure swallowed the gunners in the Oaks.

At least I have a couple doubles to BOM!

Leamas

[Leamas57]

I was writing my response at the same time, Tread. LOL.

Leamas

[jimbo66]

Tread,

You are always welcome to the pools.

Take a look at the adjustments made by the jockeys in the latter half of the card.  Yes, when the pace becomes suicidal, horses were able to close, although even then it was mostly on the rail.

You are welcome to your interpretation.  Simpleton a good choice of word for u to use.

Good luck,

You need it.

Jim

[TreadHead]

Yes, the 48.1 pace in R9, 47 flat in R12 (at 6.5F) and 48.3 in R13 are certainly \"suicidal\".  You definitely have me there.

[FrankD.]

Per Fairmount who is on sight only the first 2 paths were sealed for the first 10 races 8 of which were dirt.Prior to the Oaks the entire track was sealed....

Speed, rail and the Bo-Rail closers path up until the Oaks and it took many jocks and obviously a few \"handicappers\" awhile to catch on or not.

With a lot more overnight, early morning rain and possible afternoon T-storms with who knows what track maintenance will be done, good luck. I made 4 bets yesterday and probably less today.....

Happy Derby Day,

Frank D.