Early Stab at Derby M/L, '17, Updated

[Furious Pete]

Nothing would make me happier Frank, I\'ll make that my lifelong mission. I\'m glad to see he\'s been finding peace in India, I guess that should buy me a few more years.

Btw, have you ever tried to google pictures of \"Jimbo66\"? This is what I found: https://www.google.com/search?q=jimbo66&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjnlLrC4M7TAhUGDSwKHYJ4A_gQ_AUICCgD&biw=1024&bih=490#imgrc=OZHikqdj4FWdNM:

I find that a pretty good analogy for over-reliance on sheet theory in the very complex game that is horse racing..

[TGJB]

Hey Genius-- you do know that we\'ve managed to make a living here for a while, right? Take a walk over to the Hall Of Fame on this site, and see how guys using our data have done. (I\'ve heard Vito spends a lot of time over there, scratching his head). And we haven\'t even updated that thing in a while.

Over rely on this.

[Furious Pete]

I\'m not saying that it isn\'t a great tool, nor am I questioning the quality of the products you provide because they\'re excellent. But one should still remember just that. It\'s a tool. Hell, I might even accept the claim that TG products might be the equivalent in horse racing to the swiss army knife!

Still.

Bob the Builder wouldn\'t be able to fix everything, everywhere, if he didn\'t carry with him a complete tool belt at all times. There\'s no need to go all Bear Grylls on these problems, IMO.

EDIT: I could be wrong, but just to expand on that last analogy which I was quite satisfied with to be honest. These are the kind of pictures I get when imagining someone trying to find the KD winner this year by identifying the \"prettiest\" sheet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R25Eflr0oJ8

[TGJB]

Pete-- My first reaction to that was to offer you a prop bet, but my gut says you\'re a grad student on a budget and I would feel bad winning.

[TempletonPeck]

There\'s a joke in here somewhere about Pete\'s redboard post being such a big new top and then a bounce being predictable and his view on sheet theory... just gimme a second...

[Furious Pete]

That\'s pretty good! Maybe there\'s hope for me next year then, with a decent 2yo figure to run back to.

[moosepalm]

Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> EDIT: I could be wrong, but just to expand on that
> last analogy which I was quite satisfied with to
> be honest. These are the kind of pictures I get
> when imagining someone trying to find the KD
> winner this year by identifying the \"prettiest\"
> sheet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R25Eflr0oJ8


So, I have to ask, did you find that video off a random google search of \"drinking elephant dung juice?\" and if so, I won\'t ask why.  Please tell me the dung was photoshopped.

I wanted to make this a sheets-related post, but for the life of me, I can\'t find a way in.

[Furious Pete]

I saw that clip on the telly years ago and you could say it made an impact.

I don\'t think I want to take this discussion any further, I will look foolish enough already if AD runs bad and Practical Joke or McCraken wins (i.e \"the pretty sheets\").

As for this analogy, since you asked, I just think it was funny.

Bear Grylls commits himself to survive in the harshest of environments just by relying on one tool only, namely himself, and all though he shows it can be done he does end up taking a lot of sh.t in the process. I just think one of the \"uglier\" sheets will take this down, and if you\'re looking at the market, it seems to agree. I can\'t see Practical Joke winning, and I have a hard time picturing McCraken getting the roses too. If they run 3rd or 4th, I get the feeling most people on here have tossed the winner anyway (or have watered down all their value by using the all-button).

Maybe the prettiest sheet isn\'t the best indicator of who will win THIS EDITION of the KD Derby?

If one still insists on relying on that one tool only then - disregarding the eye-test, giving too much weight to poorly fundated statistics, ignoring the fact that \"the bounce\" is a question of percentages and not a simple yes or no-question, reading the lines as 9-9-0 instead of actually do some handicapping, reading too much into a 2yo race that you think can help you predict a bounce, not making a difference between a bounce (i.e a physical phenomena) and a regression (i.e coincidences), blindly betting \"pretty\" over \"fast\", cling yourself to ridiculous mantras as \"the number is the number\" without giving it much more thought - well, then maybe you just might end up squeasing drops of water out of elephant sheet instead of buying yourself a soda at the nearby gas station.

IMO, there\'s no need to commit that wholeheartedly to one tool only when trying to predict the derby. Specially not in these cases where you can\'t seem to find an acceptable solution by applying it.

From wikipedia:
A mental set is a framework for thinking about a problem. It can be shaped by habit or by desire. Mental sets can make it easy to solve a class of problem, but attachment to the wrong mental set can inhibit problem-solving and creativity.

[TGJB]

The question is, why are you still talking? You think we don\'t understand you, so you\'re going to repeat everything over and over?

I\'m not going to get into it with you, because deconstructing that garbage would take way more time than I\'m willing to invest. It is a straw man-- a bunch of assumptions and assigned views that are false, set up so that you can knock them down.

Person to person email me if you want to do the following prop bet. If AD is top 5 you win, worse I win.

[Furious Pete]

I rather stick to my simple, medium-sized winbet on AD at pre-draw odds of 7.5-1, if he doesn\'t win or run 2nd he\'s probably not top 5 either. Doesn\'t seem like a good bet. I\'ll give you even money that either McCraken, Classical Empire or Practical Joke wins.

Tell you what, how about this for a bet?

If McCraken, Classical Empire or Practical Joke wins the derby, I\'ll make a post admitting I was wrong and don\'t know shit about US Racing, and then won\'t post anymore on this board until 2018 (and I\'ll come back with a different attitude).

If AD wins, you say sorry.

Deal?

[TGJB]

I\'m not assigning myself any positions publicly on the winner, that\'s what the seminar is for. And I\'m not trying to run you off, you provide a service here. There\'s a term for it-- it has been used recently by the Russians about a Trump advisor.

Here\'s a piece of advice-- argue against positions others actually take, not ones you would like them to take.

[Furious Pete]

Glad to be at service. I\'ll keep things friendly from now on. Good luck in the derby, it should be one hell of a race to watch no matter ones position.

[moosepalm]

Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I saw that clip on the telly years ago and you
> could say it made an impact.
>
> I don\'t think I want to take this discussion any
> further, I will look foolish enough already if AD
> runs bad and Practical Joke or McCraken wins (i.e
> \"the pretty sheets\").
>
> As for this analogy, since you asked, I just think
> it was funny.
>

I didn\'t ask.

[Tavasco]

Fairmount

I would like to be the first to congratulate you about your McCraken price opinion.

While we still have plenty of time before the windows open and then close. I\'m convinced m/l odds will attract attention and $$\'s to #15.

Orange sneakers eh.