Field is set

[Furious Pete]

The other way to look at this is of course to take these findings as evidence for the so-called \"ground loaded\" figures.

FWIW I don\'t really subscribe to that, I too believe that \"wide\" horses are more likely to run their races because of what you mention there with less traffic issues and banging around, and also because of the \"kinder angle\" wide horses faces in the turns and maybe even herd-dynamics play a part in this. The only \"ground loaded\" figures I would be skeptical to is if horses are running wide while the pace is slow, they are still running further but it probably cost them less than what they \"gain\" by the ground adjustments. I guess one could also run into \"problems\" on days where there seems to be a strong outside bias, specially if one still insists to \"pair up\" the inside horses at the same rate as the outside horses to get the race to fit. There\'s no sensible way to go about this from a figure making perspective though, IMO, other than counting every path the same and maybe sometimes give a few more X\'es to the inside horses on outside biased race days - but the handicapper should be aware of this \"flaw\" in the methodology. A number is \"never\" just a number.

If the \"plus points\" about running wide is enough to counter the effect of running further, when one is trying to predict who will win, run 2nd and 3rd (which after all is what it\'s all about), is another debate though..

[sekrah]

There\'s some value to be found when a horse is surrounded by other horses with different styles than they have.  This is how many of us landed on Super Saver. If I remember correctly, he was the only horse within the first 5 or 6 or post positions that had any kind of speed. Super Saver had a high percentage chance of a clean ride near the front of the pack in the 1-path with a famous rail-loving jockey on him.

When you can come up with some degree of trip clarity in a 20-horse race, it really boosts your chances of making a payout.

I am still dissecting how this year\'s post position draw will shake things up.  Having this much speed all bottled on the inside is kind of unique.  I\'ll have to look back at previous Derby\'s.

[jbrown007]

Sekrah couldn\'t agree more. Figuring out who will get the most \"obvious\" good trip can factor into a \"key\". Super Saver is a perfect example. May not be the fastest but we figured he would get a good trip and a thoro \"1\" with a 1-2 wide trip is dangerous.