ROTW Hawthorne

[moosepalm]

sekrah Wrote:
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> In poker parlance, it would be kind of like
> looking at everyone\'s folded cards after the hand
> and realizing they all had your outs and that you
> made the wrong decision when you called pot-odds
> to try to make your flush, when in reality with
> the information you had available at the time, you
> made the right decision.


In horse racing parlance, I like to think I make the right decision every time, but the racing gods have all my outs.

For what little its worth, I haven\'t necessarily found sheets theory to help me land on too many Derby winners, but they have, on occasion, been pure gold in finding a value horse, with an explosive pattern, to key in tris or supers.  I\'m not red boarding my own work, because any of those that I landed on came directly from TGJB\'s seminar.

[Furious Pete]

And BTW, even though I promised to not say anything more about AD, the only reason why I can say that I think AD could be value in the derby is because I believe in the wisdom of crowds and that betting markets are a damn good device for predicting the future. That\'s why I always like to control my bets with questions like \"is there any reason why the public could be pricing this horse wrong?\". A Pletcher-horse in the derby that have ran only one good number but which line nonetheless could be explained, well yes, there you have that chance.

BTW I also think that statistics is a great tool that can serve some of that same purpose, by providing us a base line to line our odds around, but there you have the difference between \"good statistics\", and \"bad statistics\". A stat based on 45 horses spanning over 20 years in which multiple of those starts didn\'t stand much chance and for a trainer whom is notorious for getting, and trying to get, as many starters possible in the derby each year for his owners, in a sport that has changed dramatically over those same 20 years, well it\'s not the kind of statistics I would rely too much upon. That\'s why I prefer to go the other way in this particular case, because the chances of the public assigning too much weight to those statistics outweighs, for me at least, the probability that they should be relied upon. I\'m not blind to them, I just think they get too much attention in the markets.

[TGJB]

Pete-- I just want to make sure you understand that nobody responding is not because they can\'t. It\'s exhaustion. And because they the understand that you are so far out in left field (American expression) that there\'s no way to bring you back. It would be a waste of time to try.