Early Stab at Derby M/L, '17

[johnnym]

How can you not take into account Pletchers record in the Derby?
The list and long.

[boardedup]

That doesn\'t take away from the fact that he ran well?  But sure the list is long of TAP 3 year olds that run huge only to be retired soon after, not disputing that at all

[bellsbendboy]

Solid Sek, dogmatic rigidity eliminates profitability but does cash tickets    (Vito?).  The prattle about 18-14-7-? ignores vital variables.  Spacing, surface, track, distance, pedigree, post, equipment, class etc.

Derbywise, factor 10 panels for sophomores in the spring at scale weights, 20 animals, 30 some seconds to the turn...chaos!  Yet, historically performance figure makers have done reasonably well this heat.

Go figure!  bbb

[jbrown007]

I believe the comparison of AD to War Emblem would be the race after the big top 8,10,1. He paired the 1 and went into the derby as a logical tboro horse (I wasn\'t using thorograph back then). War emblems pattern can\'t be considered healthy right? Pair two year old top first out is great but then move backwards second off? Then run a 1?

[mjellish]

I probably shouldn\'t but I am going to throw in my 2 cents here on this colt.  

From a pure sheet point of view you can\'t possibly like his pattern or the trainer\'s record in the KY Derby.  If you like the colt you have to disregard both of those things altogether or make some type of excuse for them.  Can we make an educated excuse?

He debuts at Belmont Park in a 5 1/2F sprint as part of an entry and his entry mate was scratched.  He draws post 6 in 7 horse field.  He gets bet and goes off as the 9/5 favorite.  He breaks well but takes some light bumping on both sides out of the gate, establishes an outside tracking position while pressing an honest pace, gets hung out 3-4 wide on the turn but manages to poke his head in front, sustains that move into the stretch and keeps a straight course but is no match for the winner and winds up getting passed late for 2nd.  I\'m not going to post his TG number, but overall it was an unremarkable debut IMO.

He then shows up at Saratoga for his second start in a 6F sprint.  He gets bet again and goes off as the favorite from the 4 hole in a 9 horse field.  He breaks alertly but winds up stalking from mid pack, takes some dirt (a learning experience), goes 4 wide on the turn and again sustains his rally down the stretch, takes the lead in deep stretch and looks like he is going to go right on by but appears to wait on horses and lets a rival he already passed come back on him and beat him.  As soon as he realized he got passed AD re broke and was gaining again, but by then it was too late.  Note to self, maybe this colt likes to pair up and wait on horses, he hasn\'t learned how to run off and hide and win yet.

Now he goes to Pletcher who takes him down to Florida.  He works at PBD along with the rest of Pletcher\'s Florida string, but Pletcher doesn\'t send this colt to Gulfstream to break his maiden.  He sends him to Tampa for a cheaper MDSWT race (note to self, this is not Pletcher\'s usual move so why doing that with this colt).  AD is entered in a 1 40yds race for his first try around two turns.  The field is a soft one and he goes off as the 1-5 favorite from the 6 hole in a 9 horse field.  He again breaks alertly and establishes a pace pressing position, winds up stuck between horses a little tight around and coming out of the first turn but handles it well (note to self this colt is a cool customer who listens to his jockey), the pace is moderate with consistent 12 and change 1/8ths while running with the wind, is asked slightly heading into the 2nd turn and immediately responds while inheriting the rail, is ridden very confidently as Johhny V takes a peak back between his legs, when asked he draws off at will to win by about a dozen.  The late fractions into the wind come back slow but he drew off easily from the rest of field and galloped out strongly indicating more distance shouldn\'t be an issue.  The fig comes back more or less average, maybe a bit below.  Note to self, seemed to like 2 turns and didn\'t wait on horses at all.  Weak field, weak fig.  May be overrated.

Pletcher chooses not to be aggressive with this colt and run him back in a stakes race.  Instead he opts for an ALWN1X at 1 1/8th (note to self, why?).  Colt goes off as 1-9 favorite from the 1 hole in a 9 horse field.  Breaks alertly, goes to front, sets very slow pace, is very confidently ridden with Johhny V taking 3 peeks back between his legs while hand riding him to a 4 length win.  Fig comes back weak, field was weak.  Galloped out strongly again seemingly indicating distance was no problem but never had to take a deep breath whole way around.  Colt learned nothing and had everything his own way but maybe got a confidence builder.  May be overrated or we haven\'t seen his best yet.

Finally is supposed to get the acid test in the FL Derby, but the field overall is not real strong.  Gunnevera is the favorite having won the Fountain of Youth but he has a terrible outside post from the 10 spot where it is almost impossible to win at 1 1/8th at Gulfstream.  Nearly half the field is over 100-1, only a couple of real contenders and they have major flaws and are not proven graded stakes horses.  AD breaks alertly from the 4 post, shows nice athleticism when forced to check off heels on first turn when a rival comes over too soon, doesn\'t seem to miss a beat and recovers quickly (note to self, this matters, this is a cool customer who does not get rattled), is confidently ridden again, stalks the pace, goes three wide on 2nd turn and when asked with whip responds immediately by drawing off with strong gallop out after the race.  Fig comes back fairly strong in a quick race but not an overtly fast one.  This was a very weak field.  Note to self, this colt strutted back to the winner\'s circle and is brimming with confidence right now off a 3 race winning streak, seems to like distance.  Pletcher has done a nice job bringing this guy around.

When you look at his overall pattern in the context of his racing history, there\'s no getting around that his last was obviously a big forward move.  You can make the argument that he didn\'t have to run any faster in his prior two wins, but its still tough to make the leap to saying he could easily move forward again.  Quite frankly it just isn\'t real likely.  He\'s already developed a lot this spring.  A pair would be much more likely, or maybe a small forward move of say about a point or so.  This just isn\'t the type of pattern that usually wins the KY Derby.

Trainer has not fared well in KY Derby overall, especially with horses coming from Florida.  But this one hasn\'t been handled like most of his Florida horses.  This one has been handled with kid gloves. Why?  Is that good or bad?

So to me, the positives are: the colt has handled the limited adversity he has been faced with, seems fairly athletic and would probably handle being stopped or light trouble, seems to listen to his jock and have a good mind, is confident, has two wins at 1 1/8th which should be enough foundation, all indications are he will handle the added distance, has enough early speed to establish a decent position but is not a run off type, and he gets 5 weeks rest off his new top instead of 3 or 4 so a pair or small forward move is not entirely out of the question.

Negatives are: he\'s still coming off a big top and not real likely to move forward enough off this pattern to win given that he\'s already developed a lot this spring and doesn\'t have a strong 2 year old top to build on, his fastest to date may not be fast enough to win, his trainer hasn\'t fared well in KY Derby or at Churchill period for that matter, he hasn\'t beat anyone other than Gunnevera and that one was not able to run his best race that day from the 10 post.

So for me, I personally have not seen enough to excuse the negatives here.  With horses like this I could tend to overlook those negatives if I got a price but you almost never get a price with a highly regarded horse coming of an easy Graded Stakes win.  So I would need to see strong visual evidence that this colt is ready to make another forward move.  He has to \"wow\" me with his last two works, preferably at Churchill, and gallop like he owns the place.  Even then, I probably still need to get a price because they can look great in the morning and still bounce in the afternoon, especially if the are facing much tougher competition, and therefore more racing stress, than they\'ve ever had before.

[jbrown007]

Mjellish a lot of good information in there. I don\'t think there is a right or wrong answer. I prefer to take a stand against IWR because I don\'t believe he is as patient as Always. I also don\'t like the fact he may only get one work in before the derby.

A few other notes to your breakdown of Always Dreaming
1) John R flew to Tampa to ride him in that cheap MSW
2) Dreaming has always beat up on the other Pletcher horses in workouts
3) I truly believe that Pletcher is just trying to get this horse to peak in Churchill. 5 weeks off is perfect for Pletcher. Instead of having Dreaming run in a multiple stakes races and throw big numbers why not save it for later.

I know the comparison of Danza has been made to Always Dreaming but why not just look last year?

Destin 7,8   9,7,-0
came back and ran a 2 at churchill. He had a real tough trip but ran a hell of a race. I bet him back in belmont and lost a close one. Pletcher was in a tough spot running such a big race and having 6 weeks. 6 weeks is just not ideal coming into the biggest, most grueling race in a horses career.

Also to note that -0 was nothing like Dreamings big jump. Destin was all out to beat outwork in the Tampa Derby.

[Gerard]

One additional observation. AD needed to win the Florida Derby. I\'ll try to work something up later, but it seems horses that need points, or earnings in the past are more susceptible to the bounce. While the last several winners have come in off winning streaks, none needed the victory in their final prep. BB needed the win for Bodemeister in the 2012 Ark. derby. And even he couldn\'t avoid the bounce in Kentucky, though Bode did run a heck of a race.

[sekrah]

jbrown007 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mjellish a lot of good information in there. I
> don\'t think there is a right or wrong answer. I
> prefer to take a stand against IWR because I don\'t
> believe he is as patient as Always. I also don\'t
> like the fact he may only get one work in before
> the derby.
>
> A few other notes to your breakdown of Always
> Dreaming
> 1) John R flew to Tampa to ride him in that cheap
> MSW
> 2) Dreaming has always beat up on the other
> Pletcher horses in workouts
> 3) I truly believe that Pletcher is just trying to
> get this horse to peak in Churchill. 5 weeks off
> is perfect for Pletcher. Instead of having
> Dreaming run in a multiple stakes races and throw
> big numbers why not save it for later.
>
> I know the comparison of Danza has been made to
> Always Dreaming but why not just look last year?
>
> Destin 7,8   9,7,-0
> came back and ran a 2 at churchill. He had a real
> tough trip but ran a hell of a race. I bet him
> back in belmont and lost a close one. Pletcher was
> in a tough spot running such a big race and having
> 6 weeks. 6 weeks is just not ideal coming into the
> biggest, most grueling race in a horses career.
>
> Also to note that -0 was nothing like Dreamings
> big jump. Destin was all out to beat outwork in
> the Tampa Derby.

Destin is the one in my mind, and I think this one has better recovery genes.  I see a strong resemblence to his sire\'s sire, Empire Maker, who 6 pt topped to a 0 and kept firing them.  Always Dreaming is that kind of horse in my mind.

Durability and recovering to avoid the bounce is genetics, not a random crap shoot.

[jbelfior]

Interesting that the husband-wife owners also (seriously) considering Battalion Runner. JJC opts him over Gunnevera.

BR was said to need time between races. Perhaps he\'s doing well. Perhaps he\'s interesting too. Jimbo will disagree.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ajkreider]

Castellano staying on Gunny, per Welsch.

[TempletonPeck]

n/t

[Tavasco]

Was there any mention of a previously rumored JC switch from Gunne to Lookin At Lee?

[ajkreider]

No, and I hadn\'t heard that.

It would be interesting if JC was mulling a change.  I\'d think staying on Gunny over LAL is a pretty easy call.  Given the works since the FOY and how he ran the FD, Gunny looks to have recovered from that big number and should move forward.

Battalion Runner is a harder call, not least because Pletcher butters more of Castellano\'s bread (um, that came out weird). But I don\'t know what to make of his sheet - getting back to that number from last year.  Moving forward a couple with his running style makes him the likely winner. But my betters on the board can give a more informed opinion.