3 yr. old retop

[pgsheets]

I had previously mentioned my negative lean towards the retop in spring time 3\'s and while doing a speed run through the Belmont Archive, I noticed two things :

Point Given had the classic retop and exploded to a big new number.

Derby favorite Stephen Got Even entered the Belmont off a flatter retop line and regressed.

I\'m curious if anyone has any thoughts or facts to share on the subject.
I\'m aware that there are many variables involved in the line in question, such as timing,  the nature of the middle race, trainer, etc.

The other thing I noticed is that there were some pretty slow horses in some of those years.

[JR]

I follow the third time\'s a charm theory.

[derby1592]

In a previous post this year I showed the profile for a 3yo off a paired top based on some data I have collected and seen in the past. This is just in general and not specific to the Belmont or for going 12f for the first time or to top class 3yos or \"super trainers\" etc.

The percentages are top: 20%, pair: 25%, off: 25%. X: 30%

A few years ago I also posted a \"profile\" for a Belmont winner and contrasted it with the profile for a Derby winner. The big difference between the two was that very few horses ran big new tops in the Derby while it was much more common in the Belmont. Quite a few lightly-raced horses with strong patterns had run big new tops in the Belmont. There are lots of recent examples. Conversely, favorites in the Belmont often regressed after a series of big efforts during the TC preps and the TC.

Clearly Rock Hard Ten (and to a slightly lesser extent depending on what fig he earned in his last - Purge) fits the \"possible-jump\" profile and Smarty Jones the \"possible-regress\" profile but keep in mind that so far Smarty Jones has been \"anti-profile\" as most genuine freaks are and he may be the special exception to the rule at which we will all get a chance to continue to marvel.

However, at possible 1/9 odds given all the hype and expectations, it will be pretty hard to resist the temptation to bet against him in the Belmont.

As my old racetrack mentor use to say,

\"Good bets at 1/5 are rarer than teeth on a hockey player.\"

Chris



Post Edited (06-02-04 17:30)

[JR]

I will bet against him in vain, I suppose, and leave myself in what I consider to be a win win situation. Either I\'ll cash in on what will be huge overlays or I\'ll be treated to the making of history in spectacular fashion. Either way I\'ll feel good in the end.



Post Edited (06-02-04 21:03)

[TGJB]

Chris et al-- we are about a week away from giving you hard, statistical answers to the pattern questions (\"retop\", etc.). We hoped to have it by the Belmont, but...

You\'ll like it.

[dodie]

JR
  I really like your attitude.  I too, will make some token bets against SJ in the pick 3\'s and 4, but I\'m hoping to watch history rather than make a few bucks!

[derby1592]

Cool.