How do you read the BC Classic?

[Dana666]

Chrome would seem to have an advantage tomorrow at level weights and with the post he wanted, being outside rivals rather than inside. In the Classic it looked to me like Victor gave Chrome a questionable ride. Why was he looking back and waiting and waiting on Arrogate, and how in the world did he wind up inside Arrogate in the stretch? We know Chrome would rather be outside, if possible, yet I wonder if it really mattered. Maybe Arrogate is just way faster than Chrome, and it won\'t matter tomorrow, either. I was concerned that Arrogate missed his prep race and wears some kind of bar shoe or half shoe or something--but most Baffert horses have very short careers, so these issues are probably no big deal. Baffert also said they will send Arrogate from the rail, so he\'s going to save ground, and we all know how Gulfstream tends to favor inside speed, especially in route races and on big days. I\'m thinking Arrogate is pretty solid for the win. Love to hear your thoughts???

[phil23]

The race shape does not favour Chrome being able to pull a Big Brown and get over - he\'s likely to lose lots of ground. Arrogate\'s training has been disrupted and while he got the works in, the wet may have contributed to the abscess that, admittedly, at this point is a very minor deal but...with the pressure on who knows if that doesn\'t cause him an issue tomorrow - in some video last few weeks of him just walking (not jogging or galloping) it does seem like he was slightly not quite perfect.

I would not want to take +150 on either of them, let alone what they likely will be (shorter than that).

I like Keen Ice, especially at the 25\'s or 33\'s he\'s available at this very second across the board off shore. Again, race shape looks like he should be able to get to no worse than 2 path (Shaman Ghost just inside him probably) by the first turn as everyone else ought to clear. If Javy just stays there, with his recovery line, it does look like he\'s ready to get back to his isolated top, or even, as a 5yo (2.50 pt sire grow) exceed it. He also ran the second best number of his career in this very race at this time last year. Both the clockers and Pletcher himself have been talking up how well he\'s going, TAP notably more exuberant (to my ear) in his comments on this one than on Neo, tho that one\'s pattern looks good too.

Basically, for a change, we\'re having a big race not on the west coast where a certain trainer does not fare well, but in his very own back yard. I think we see the difference location makes on Saturday.

[Dana666]

Well, win or lose, it is a bold thesis! I like that. I suppose some UK bookmaker could just offer you odds of anyone other than the top two. You\'d hate to be right about beating the two big guys and pick the wrong horse! I\'m just blinded by Arrogate\'s brilliance, so my handicapping may be off. Good luck!

[phil23]

Dana- that\'s exactly what I\'m waiting for, a NO A/CC market. Figure we\'ll see one on day of race.

Given that they offer each/way betting (top 3 1/5th the odds) would be looking for 5/1 or so but doubt would get that. Actually the each/way play is not the worse idea have ever thought of. 33\'s if he wins but still 6.6:1 to be top 3.

Lord knows even if he\'s third Jerry (Crawford, not Brown) will let the world know about it. He ain\'t shy.

[ajkreider]

Top two are so much better than the field, neither needs to fire their best shot to beat the others.  Keen Ice would have the better shot at 10F.  I don\'t like him in this spot at all, even with Javier and Pletcher. Not sure GP is his best surface either.  Romans sure complained a lot about it.  

Speaking of Big Brown, he was the last horse to win from the 12 hole at 9Fs at GP.

[phil23]

Hear you on the 10f...it\'s a true tragedy that next year\'s Pegasus maybe 10f is (likely) what they\'ll do vs the 9 this year. Alas alas. But...if (big if admittedly) A has issues and CC loses ground, Ice\'s top is not that far off, even if he doesn\'t go fwd (which certainly the thorn pattern does not exactly scream for I grant you)...given the price.

Regarding Big Brown - whenever I think about him and his derby it still brings pain. Anyone else wonder what might have happened if poor old Smooth Air doesn\'t come down with his issue?

[Dana666]

from PaddyPower

1- 1-1
2- 250-1
3- 25-1
4- 16-1
5- 150-1
6- 250-1
7- 33-1
8- 200-1
9- 20-1
10- 40-1
11- 50-1
12- 5-4