Remsen and Golden Rod

Fairmount1 · November 25, 2016, 06:47:50 PM

I know you are all tired of the Travers weekend stories I keep telling but.....

On Friday evening, when Uncle Bill said we should all disband from the TG GIANTS section until the Saturday morning seminar, I headed from one bar to another to another until nearly 4 a.m. And I still made the seminar start time on an early post Travers Day. Regardless of that fact,.....

At one bar near the track and still part of the memory bank of the evening, I met an Anthony Dutrow assistant who was with a buddy from another barn (who I saw on Breeders Cup weekend at Churchill going to the VFW coincidentally and he was stunned I remembered him b/c he didn\'t remember me....and then he did when I asked more about THIS very horse lol). Anyway, this Dutrow assistant tells me all about their firster in the first race on Travers Day raving that he can run like no other they have had in their barn named Mo Town. When I shared this at the seminar to the TG experts it was met with some interest but the TG-ers don\'t put much stock in firster laden maiden races.

When he ran 2nd to an Asmussen horse at odds of 7-2 I was all but laughed out of the TG backyard section. Prominent members of the TG Club explained to me that everyone thinks their firster is the greatest and they have no idea who else is in the race against them......they were teaching me all the ropes of maiden special weight races at Saratoga.

Since then, his maiden win was smashing......Coolmore bought in during October. He works a bullet after his Nashua scratch (with the next fastest work 4/5 a second slower by PA Derby winner and 4 for 6 lifetime Connect for Chad Brown)....TG wise (without giving too much away) he faces an uphill battle with a healthy pattern I would guess JB and Alan would say but watch the replay and tell me there isn\'t more in store. Check out Uncle Mo\'s 1 mile and over compared to under. TG\'s data is terrific if you are into studying yourself.

No one in the Drf picks him to win. Kiaran has been solid in the Remsen the past few years and his horse should take serious cash. I am hoping to get the morning line and maybe then some on Mo Town and if I can get even at least 3-1 I\'ll be satisfied.

Lead Astray is very interesting down the road off his slow paired figs when he may get lasix at Gulfstream after the first of the year but not a chance tomorrow.

At CD in the Golden Rod, I will take a similar stance with Daddy\'s Lil Darling who appears to me to be a TG standout. Curious others\' thoughts. I try to handicap the races and then reinforce or dissuade myself with TG numbers; not sure how others do it but this one was a huge reinforcement on a horse I aleady was very interested in playing.

Let\'s hear some handicapping on some of the last meaningful races of the year!!

Best of luck!

jp702006 · November 25, 2016, 07:16:08 PM

Fairmount,
I am playing Churchill tomorrow after several years of playing Remsen day. My experience playing Remsen day is that in recent years it has seemed to be a chalk fest. I\'m going to take a swing at the Stars of Tomorrow card and hope for some better payouts. I\'m with you on Daddy\'s Lil Darling. I was all over her on BC day. Maybe I\'m biased, but I thought she got a questionable ride that day. She was parked wide the entire trip. Hopefully with a better ride, she runs around a 6 which should be good enough to take this.

Good luck!

Patrick

Fairmount1 · November 25, 2016, 07:29:03 PM

Patrick,

If it says anything about our similar opinions of the cards, I purchased only the Remsen for AQ on TG and purchased the entire CD TG card. One of my favorite features on TG is the 2nd time starter info which is terrific on a card like CD\'s tomorrow with many 2yo\'s.

I\'ll likely be singling the Darling. McPeek mentioned in an interview I read or heard somewhere he thought this horse was more talented than Dothraki Queen. TG indicates she is best in my opinion and I agree about her last that if she can simply get that number she wins.

Wilkes won 3 races Friday and one today including running 1st and 3rd in today\'s stakes at 4-1 (opened fav in win pool) and 89-1 in 3rd. Pay attention as he closes out Churchill\'s meeting as he has 5 in tomorrow including Jockey Club fav McCracken from a difficult outside post. I\'ll also be using Romeo at least underneath going first time dirt in that race and likely a bit in a horizontal too.

jp702006 · November 25, 2016, 08:08:05 PM

Romeo is an interesting play with the TG turf to dirt angle. If you can beat Mccraken, the horizontals should pay well. I look for him to be around 9/5 and a single on most tickets. I like the 12 Uncontested. Check out the second start number for the trainer, eye opening.

Fairmount1 · November 25, 2016, 08:26:59 PM

Son in law Channing Hill aboard. Those two outside posts are something for top two betting choices (in my opinion) but I believe the 12 does clear before they enter the turn on top. Tiz Wonderful at a route concerns me but TG sire numbers indicate it shouldn\'t. I\'ll definitely look at using this one more prominently in the horizontals. Can he get the distance appears to be the only question here.

If you are interested in the Remsen in even the slightest, Reckling, the horse that beat Mo Town on Travers Day runs in an OC75k/n1x in the first at Churchill. If may or may not influence a decision on Mo Town.

Tavasco · November 25, 2016, 09:08:13 PM

The top of this thread hit on three of my search arguments so I am compelled to speak out. Saratoga (9/2), 2nd Time Starter (Foreign Affair), Remsen Card (Aqu 11/25 Race #4).

I don\'t put too many horses on my \"to watch\" list so... to get there the trip must have caught my attention. On 9/2 which may (?) have been closing day at the Spa Foreign Affair\'s race caught my attention almost certainly because I invested in her.

My notes indicate she raced wide and ran on well through the finish line. Also the filly just didn\'t seem to know what was expected of her. Whether it was that or the connections were just out for a test drive is a puzzle but she impressed me by not stopping.

Saturday she will stretch out to a mile. I believe that is a plus. Adding a turn isn\'t, as another wide trip would not surprise. She is well rested and the workouts keep her under the radar @ m/l 10/1.

I have not looked at the competition and do not have the sheets to get a read on 2nd time starter stats. I don\'t play that heavy so if her price drops down I won\'t be the cause. Yet surely I\'m not the only one who likes to bet young horses back after a promising 1st race. So she could even be an analysis favorite if that\'s so I second the proposition.

richiebee · November 25, 2016, 09:45:59 PM

Another good day for Uncle Mo at AQ Friday with two more 2YO winners... Mo
Maverick, now two for two on AQ\'s tight turned turf course, and Kathryn the Wise,
a well bet NY bred first timer from Chadzilla.

In the Remsen, I will look to the product of another promising young stallion,
Union Rags. No Dozing (4/1 ML), from Barbaro\'s people, has competitive TGs, is
the only two time winner in the field, and most importantly to me, has already
been two turns. Maybe the price drifts up with the out of town jock named to ride.

The one who might prove interesting down the road is Tale of Silence (30/1),
full brother to Tale of Ekati.Tale of Silence experienced a two turn magical
mystery tour under the Leper at Keeneland, ducking in from his rail post and
possibly moving prematurely. Tale of Silence adds blinkers, shows two bullet
works early this month, and has had trouble in all three lifetime starts. TOS
might be worth a stab in the Remsen but is one to watch if Barclay campaigns
him at Tampa or GP this winter.

jp702006 · November 26, 2016, 10:37:31 AM

Fairmount,
After a few hours of pouring over the TG data, here is what I came up with for my late pick 4 at Churchill: 23912/48912/3711,12/24. I decided to use the 7 in the boys race because he could get a nice stalking trip and get first jump if the 12 falters. Good luck with your wagers today.

Patrick

belmont3 · November 27, 2016, 05:48:33 AM

Fairmount,

Have you sobered up?

Great story and nice pick.
Congrats

Michael D. · November 27, 2016, 08:07:44 AM

2 1/2 length winner and $10.40. great pick, Richie.

brutal watching Lanerie get checked on the CD pick. I used to like that guy. now it seems like he gets checked out of every big race he\'s in.

the winner of the Golden Rod is 1/2 to Carpe Diem. went a fast as the boys (though McCraken lost some ground).

Silver Charm · November 27, 2016, 05:17:00 PM

Nice job!! Well done. Easy winner and a good price

jimbo66 · November 28, 2016, 06:56:47 AM

RichieBee,

I guess it pays to be a nice guy. You pick the second place horse and get two people congratulating and giving you credit for the $10.40 winner.

In my next life I won\'t be a curmudgeon.... I will be nice like you.

No Dozing did run well. As did the winner. As for Takaful, Harvey Pack always said don\'t bet a horse as the favorite to do something he has never done before. 1st time route, 4-5, going from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8. Tough for any young horse. Takaful may still be a runner.

Jim

richiebee · November 28, 2016, 08:26:19 AM

Jimbo:

Just noticed that. Silver Charm gets a pass. Michael D may have been more
accurate in his praise, for alas, Fairmount is also a \"Richie\".

Whether you remember Harvey Pack or not, Takaful was an absolute gift bet
against in the Remsen. What intrigued me is that he was given Lasix after his
blowout maiden win. Possible that he bled more than a trickle in that maiden win?

Adding to Mo Town\'s resume, Everybodyluvsrudy, second in Mo Town\'s maiden win,
broke his maiden Sunday at AQ.

As to No Dozing, let me just point out that Daniel Centeno rode both of Arnaud
Delacour\'s runners as if he were riding some of the odds on favorites he rides
at Tampa: both No Dozing and Divining Rod broke from outside posts and Danny
Boy made very little effort to save ground on the turn. Would not have made a
difference in the Remsen, might have factored in the Cigar.

I liked Divining Rod quite a bit in the Cigar. He came into the Cigar off a
pair of negative 1³s in two turn races; the two turn to 7f/1 mile
chute race cut back has always been a strong angle for me and makes the fact
that I did not use Finest City in the BC off that angle even more egregious.

Turned out to be a pretty strong crop of 3YOs, with Nyquist and Exaggerator
carrying the ball through the preps, Derby and Preakness, Gun Runner and
Connect performing consistently throughout the year, Songbird coming up a nose
short of perfection, and of course Arrogate and Defrong capping off great
campaigns in the BC.

With regard to that curmudgeon thing, wasn\'t it Ralph Cramden who said to be
nice to the people you pass on the way up, because they are the same people you
pass on the way down?

TGJB · November 28, 2016, 10:31:24 AM

I considered doing ROTW for both those races, but passed exactly because of the Centeno/outside post thing.

One of the worst bets in racing is horses who run huge first time out or off a layoff, the next time. Only thing worse is when they come back on relatively short rest, or going sprint to route.

As I have pointed out at the Saratoga seminars, the public pays way too much attention to a horse\'s last race, they start with the assumption that\'s him, that\'s how he will run today. There\'s a reason we put the figures on graphs.