ROTW

[TGJB]

We\'re busy. Volunteers?

[shanahan]

Keeneland Race 8   Dirt Route AOC $80K

Looking at the figs all entries have posted in the last 6 months, it appears that it will take a \"3\" or better to win it.  The rain is gone and expect fast track.

For Greater Glory has not run to this fig in a year, and as a 6 YO the Afleet Alex\'s don\'t show improvement after 4.  I still have his hat from the OP races back in the day.  He was heavily bet back then by the customers at the Longshot Saloon - no longer there - who served as  a bookie for Vegas (allegedly of course).  No 3 in his immediate future.

Net Gain, moved to Tomlinson since his last race in August, has never run a figure in the neighborhood of a 3.  Include offspring move up 2 pts from 3-4, and after 5 shots at it, he hasn\'t.

Catholic Cowboy is probably not Hillary\'s favorite horse, but that\'s for another day.  In April, he ran a 2 and has run a 3 or better 5 times.  I almost forgot about Nick Zito, it\'d be cool to see him win, and this 2 came right here at KNLD in spring meet.  60% shot to be there.

Tale of Life, 4YO, has run a 3 -4 4 times in his last 5, finishing a distant 6th at Parx.  I put no faith in anything from Parx, and will give him a long look for a hot trainer, Graham Motion.  45% shot to be there.

Ami\'s Holiday has run a 3 10 months ago at GP.  However, 3rd off the break sets up a good performance usually and Joe Bravo has been tearing it up with few mounts at different tracks over the last month with limited mounts.  However, Harlan\'s Holiday shows slight regression from 4-5, and a 3 pt jump has not been part of his history.

Grande Shores is 8years old, has not been more than a mile in a year, was never bred to go long, and has little chance.  I\'m perplexed Geroux takes this mount for Casse, so I\'ll triple check anything else they have tomorrow.

Hesinfront has run this fig several times, and has regressed at elast 3 pts each time.  Not today.

Raagheb - 4YO - has been consistent all year in this neighborhood save for his lone stinker at OP.  Since he was ridden by the tracks best jock that day, it must\'ve been something else - toss it out.  Problem is I don\'t have any idea who the trainer is.  Giveing him a 38% shot to be there.

Financial Modeling ran to the winning fig last summer and last winter as a 4YO.  Not a good performance in last after the layoff.  Similar got a 4 pt jump after a month rest last summer, expecting same here.  Solid connections & the drop from where he was LY puts him in contention but I\'d need 5-6:1.

Bottom Line:
I\'ll risk Financial Modeling simply becasue it appears 4 horses are faster today and in good stead with the Thoropattern to run today.  In order, those would be:
Catholic Kowboy dropping out of a G1
Tale of Life edging Hesinfront on the basis of superior record at KEE, and at 12:1...
Raagheb needs to be boxed with the aforemention 3 horses.

Good Luck!  Today\'s my 58th, so have one for me please!

[fasteddie]

I have selfish reasons to look at this race, as I am an owner of one of the participants, (Invading Humor) who makes the final start of her career. Her sis, Distorted Beauty, would have been here, but a tendon injury on Monday abruptly ended her career. A bittersweet weekend for our partnership, to be sure! As follow:

Selenite (12-1) not at her best on soft going, but can hit the board.

Flipcup (8-1) hidden in last, and backing up in trip; major player, at a price.

Mah Jong Madness ran Thurs....will scratch

C D\'Cat (20-1) interesting at the price, but on soft surface.

Neck of the Moon (8-1) a player at anywhere near the price!

Invading Humor (15-1) enters her 14th consecutive stakes; a good earner for a mare who has never run a big number. hates soft grass and Old Harbor will push her early. Goodbye girl, and many thanks!

Tahoe Tigress MTO

Feeling Bossy (20-1) getting better, this 3YO will be a player in this division next year. In light, but on soft.

Carameaway (50-1) always enters, always scratches!

Old Harbor (10-1) had a nice year, but will fade late on soft going.

The Tea Cups (5-1) the win wager at the price; turns the table on the favorite.

Fourstar Crook even money fav would have been a player in the G3 Athenia on Sunday. Model of consistency will be there at the end.

the play: 11 over the 1-2-5-12....good luck!

[belmont3]

Happy 58th Shannie!!

I\'ll chip in with the 9th at Kee: The Raven Run
Probably take a 3 or better to take down this Grade II 7f dash.

I am sure some of the Backyard will recall the Prioress at SAR and # Lucy N Ethel. Especially Sean who I hope is thriving in Conn!!  
Assuming all 12 run and fast track:

1) Covey Trace -ran a CT top that would be borderline competitive if paired. Not a fan of the #1 post when leaving a chute and would play for some reaction.

2) Ma Can Do It- Dale Romans turn back from 4 routes. Might go forward but would need a trip.

3) Grace\'s Treasure-another slow looking one with a 5 to get back to. Working well.

4) Lucy N Ethel- A Backyard legend and a picnic table pick by TGJB that I watched at Pennells. Huge 2yo Parx/Preciado # had many guessing that day. So, she ran a 3 and moves to Amoss/Lanerie. Two Kee works...may be controlling speed.  Has # power to be there but a bit confusing. Still: Contender

5) Southern Girl- Laurel shipper KY bred (so no Md Millions for you) -Two Kee works .  In top form with a paired 4 line. Never gone back. At 12-1 with Florent, longshot contender

6) Bellamentary- D\'Amato ships in and turns back in distance. Slow on figs. Really do not \'get\' this one so I will pass on him.

7) Malifbu Stacy: 6 1/2 with lots of development. Seems too slow.

Curlins Approval- Wolfson shipper for GP. Lightly raced, decent spacing. Fast, fit and dangerous with a 2 1/4 in last. . Tyler G sees fit to travel north and at anywhere near 8-1 ML, A contender.

9) Coniah: appear stuck in the 5 to 7 range. Maybe KM can improve on the paired 7\'s but would need a monstrous jump to win.

10) Sophia\'s Song: Interesting Pletcher entry with a recent 1. A CT bounce to a 5 and blinkers off.  Contender

11) Takrees- the 2nd KM entry. This one a Shadwell. Made a late Prioress run. Likely do the same here.  
 
12) Lightstream- Lynch and Leparoux - has the fastest fig in the field but was it Real or was it Memorex- Has yet to approach that  debut number. The secondary top makes him competitive but: Outside post, no real tactical speed, a 3-1 ML. Contender on # power.

Summary:
Am not anticipating a super pace meltdown.  

Based on ML, Lightstream is a horse I will play against. Likely wide trip and inability to get back to his top = poor value. Think there are a number of reasonably priced contenders. Curlin\'s Approval, Southern Girl, Sophia\'s Song and Lucy N Ethel are where I am focused. At this time of the year, I tend to gravitate towards the more lightly raced, developing types. Curlin\'s Approval and Sophia fit that profile and that is where I am likely to go.

Best of luck to all

[Fairmount1]

After you text me to put up a ROTW, not only do I copycat your ROTW choice but I copied your top two choices after my analysis without ever seeing your post obviously.

Best of luck because we are in the same Curlin\'s Approval, Sophia\'s Song boat!!!!

[richiebee]

Will approach this race the same way Eddie did... without mentioning a single
TG #...but will try to incorporate two oft mentioned factors, weight and
ground loss, in my brief analysis of the Ticonderoga

On August 26, Fourstar Crook and Flipcup ran 1-2 in the Yaddo on a yielding
Spa turf.  The Crook carried 118 that day, Flipper carried 116. The Crook
found himself wide from her outside post while Flipper sat inside until the
1/4 pole and was inexplicably taken wide in the lane, ending up to the Crook\'s
outside. Despite Johnny V\'s magical mystery tour, Flipper was only beaten 3/4s
of a length by the Crook at odds of nearly 15/1.

I seem to recall Frankie D, who liked Flipper in that spot, having a mild
reaction to Johnny\'s ride... the kind of reaction which makes Saratoga jockeys
happy that fans are no longer able to get up close and personal with riders
during the race day.

Fast forward to later today, where in the Ticonderoga Flipper will carry 117
breaking from post 2 and the Crook will carry 123 from the far outside.

The Play: All in on Flipper at the ML (6-1) or above.

[FrankD.]

Fair,

Belmont Bob has an open bedroom, in his house with a daughter away at school. Maybe he can adopt you? After all you are both from the same demented gene pool:)

[FrankD.]

Shanny,

Happy Birthday,I can\'t believe we are the same age! Must not have drunk as much and I\'ve consumed more than my share

Enjoy the day and take down a good one!

Frank D.

[belmont3]

Post my text, I realized that the Fairmount I came to know know would never be available on a Friday night. Chasing some fillies at a local watering hole perhaps?

Bob

BTW,
Here is a link on the Lucy N Ethel move to trainer Amoss:

 http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/fast-but-controversial-lucy-n-ethel-turned-over-to-amoss/

[FrankD.]

Bob,

Despite your apparent pleas to the TG world as well as Richiebee\'s for MOI and others to put up a race of the week I had to pass or was that pass out in my recliner by about 900.

My intention inspired by my Hemingway interests was The Mohawk otherwise known as the NYB Old Men From The Sea, (soft turf) The Trilogy of Kharafa, Lubash and King Kresa has banked over 3.8 million with a combined 23 years of age. Then I realized that Chad Brown will just win it anyways! WTF he won 2 off the turf\'s yesterday at 7/1 & 7/2.

Yesterdays alcohol abuse was not a Fairmount imitation but was fueled by the last 5 races at Keeneland. Knowing that Jose Ortiz on Little Dume was a gimme in the finale I bet a very aggressive pick 5. After the 7th race where a nice looking 10 lbs bug named Katie Clawson knocked me out at 2/1 my biggest disappointment was that gapped tooth Ken Ramsey failed to get knocked over by the horse in the winners circle. He came close but it was only a good stumble catching his balance.
So like any reasonable man I bet a pick 3. In the 9th race I made 5 doubles into the gimme.

The end result was a deficit of 3 zero\'s proceeded by a crooked number as the gimme won for fun @ $4.80 along with a stickout $14 exacta and $50 triple.

Somedays I just wish I could be a chalk eating weasel!!!!!

NO WAY,

Frank D.

[wrongway]

Race now off turf, your girl has huge wet # in drf and has never run on wet. Hoping she\'ll skip over the ground and leave from the winners circle.