ROTW, The Lexus Raven Run

[Fairmount1]

One of my favorite races every year.  This year\'s field not as stellar as in some year\'s past and I was hopeful to see Bendable return as originally stated for Claiborne after the TCA.  Nonetheless, a 12 horse field at 7 furlongs with solid runners albeit no superstars.  Looks like you can put the over under at TG 1.75 for the win.  

Every year, this race draws a large field of 3yo fillies and has a history of solid prices in its 17 year history.  I can\'t find the odds on initial winner Dreamy Maiden for Elliot Walden in 1999.  But since 2000, the average winning price is $18.40+ in the previous 16 runnings.  Favorites have won 5 of those 16 runnings but only once in the last 7 runnings with winners paying $36.00, $16.00, $25.40, $4.40 (favorite), $10.40, $14.40, and $48.80 going backwards in time.

This year\'s running:

Covey Trace:  Horse progressed to a new top of \"3\" after posting 11, 6, 12, 6 to create an interesting pattern.  More interesting is that while an unlikely winner this one\'s \"3\" is far better than the 78 Beyer in the CT Oaks at Bull Ring Charlestown.  Value underneath here, unlikely for the win.  Check out the last 90 days TG stat for Denzik, a solid but likely unknown trainer to those that don\'t follow Ky Racing.  

Ma Can Do It:  Clued in by a TG friend after the Black Eyed Susan that she should be used at 50-1.  Seems everyone on the board has a connection to the Romans barn.  Far too slow to compete here for the win honors.  She is the only horse to compete in 12 horse fields before today.  Needs improvement to get a piece.

Grace\'s Treasure:  Michael, a woman, has this one working fast at Keeneland since her last.  Last two are bullets.  Just cannot see the improvement necessary to be  part of this one.

Lucy N Ethel:  A TG favorite I\'m told, again after the fact.  When will I be part of the club to obtain this info before the race?  Undefeated horse with figures of 1 and 3, both capable of potentially winning this race.  First time Amoss after no longer a part of the famed Preciado barn.  Grade 3 and Grade 2 winner at Gulf and even Saratoga.  I state this to point out the horse has run well outside of Pennsylvania.  Frank is still upset Dearest didn\'t beat her in her last....he texts me about once a week to say \"What if\" regarding the Prioress.  Contender on numbers but the question is if the horse will perform at the same level for Amoss.  I\'m generally against this one for the win spot based on the speedball stretching to 7 furlongs as the big gap from Jan to Sept makes one wonder if the huge effort first off the bench took it out of this one.  Not in the win spot for me.  

Southern Girl:  An explosive TG pattern for a trainer that won this race in \'04.  4 wins in 5 starts.  Must love the Tapit stretching out as distances increase the TG figs typically decrease (improve).  Her one loss at Keeneland, her figs too slow but the paired \"4\'s\" indicate\" possible huge move forward after starting at 11\'s as a 2yo.  Win potential and must use in all spots at more likely odds of about 6-1 than M/L 12-1.

Bellamentary.  As of 9/8, D\'Amato was 0 for 24 in Kentucky the past five years according to Formulator.  Not sure how his TG performance is for those 24 starters but certainly a concern immediately is the lack of wins for D\'amato.  One positive for this one in a race involving 3yo sprinting speedballs is this one has been running 7f or further every time after her 5.5f debut and is 2 for 2 at the distance earning her co-best \"6\" in one of those victories.  Too many negatives for the win but certainly a look underneath at what may be odds in excess of 6-1 listed on M/L. A move forward looks possible as despite D\'Amato\'s failure to win his losses include 6 of those 24 in Ky finishing 2nd or 3rd.  Martin Garcia\'s only mount of the day in Versailles.....

Malibu Stacy.  Also has \"6\"\'s on the page as a top three times when she was in form  this summer on dirt.  Switched to turf and failed in her last.  Looks too slow for these having never punched past the 6 level.  

Curlin\'s Approval:  Never left GP til today.  Solid workout pattern since her last in late August, improving pattern, and an absolute must use in the win spot.  2 is plenty fast enough to win this one.  Like Tapit horses, Curlin horses improve TG figs as distances increase, a rarity among breeding angles today.  Great value for owner Happy Alter, a former trainer and Allen Jerkens\' friend, at anywhere close to 8-1 m/l.  

Coniah:  Lots of early speed, never raced beyond 6.5 furlongs on dirt, one mile try on turf was terrible performance.  Too slow, can\'t use whatsoever.

Sophia\'s Song:  Lost to Covey Trace in latest at $.30.  Has a \"1\" on the page two back surrounded by 12, 12, 7, 7, and 5.  Pletcher racking up victories at this Kee meet, likely \"getting numbers.\"  Unlike DRF PP\'s (non-Formulator), TG has Pletcher/Robby stats 18 for 76 with 54% of horses pairing or earning a top.  With a \"1\" from the 10 post, this one wins.  Not sure where to head on this one.  Inclined to key around this one in win spot and second spot.  

Takrees:  Lost to Lucy N Ethel in latest, the first time Amoss contender.  Her string of 6\'s (another one in here?) again makes it hard to believe she will blow post that single 4 on the page from the 11 hole and win this.  Against, too slow in top 2 spots.  

Lightstream:  The fastest horse in the race won her debut with a neg 1.  Ran in the Spring edition for 3yo fillies at Kee at 7f winning at 6-5.  With a layoff, Leparoux, solid works, an outside post and plenty of time to first run, .....but her deep closing style may still create a wide, difficult trip and her 2nd best fig \"2\" does not tower over the field.  Expect this one to be lower than 3-1, this is your 9-5 favorite.  

SUMMARY:  Southern Girl sitting on a big one and Sophia\'s Song and Curlin\'s Approval, fast enough are the value of the race in the win spot and I\'ll use those three only in horizontals and likely a win bet on Sophia\'s Song at 9-2 or above.  Against Lucy altogether in this one and while I\'ll prefer that Lightstream not hit the top 2 spots she is dangerous off the layoff to run a monster number with speedballs setting it up for her to close....... but hoping she doesn\'t make it there.  Using Covey Trace and Bellamentary prominently underneath with top three choices.    

Horizontals:  A:  8, 10, B:  5
Verticals (Ex, tri, or supers):  
10 with 5, 8 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 12 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 12
5, 8 with 10 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 12 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 12
Ex/Tri Boxes:  5, 8, 10
Ex Box:  8, 10

Best of luck!

[jbelfior]

Despite his Ky record, D\'Amato dangerous here with layoff filly who can adapt to any flow. Not sure when his 0-fors occurred but many of them may have been before he \"learned how to train\"


Good Luck,
Joe B